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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

The selling season is underway!  We have had roughly twice as many new listings as new pendings in each of the last three weeks, which is about right.  Either we will have bursts of new pendings over the next two months, or eventually those unsold listings will begin to stack up.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Feb 20, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Oops, we only had 89 new listings this week, down 12% from last week. But we had the same number of new pendings – 55!

They are forecasting rain for the next two weekends – will the weather be an excuse?  It hasn’t been so far.

Here is the action for the first seven weeks of the year:

NSDCC New Listings & Pendings, First Seven Weeks of the Year

Year
Number of New Listings
Number of New Pendings
NL:NP Ratio
2014
490
321
1.53
2015
537
341
1.57
2016
597
312
1.91
2017
535
318
1.68

We’re going strong, in spite of everything!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Feb 13, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

NSDCC Inventory Breakdown

Number of Houses For Sale by Price Range

There are 751 houses for sale today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and we should be adding 100 or so per week for the next couple of months.

If you are hoping to buy on the lower end, you have an intense experience awaiting you!  There are only 95 houses for sale under $1,000,000, and 67 of those are in Carlsbad.  Find a way to spend more money, or enjoy everything Carlsbad has to offer – it’s a great town!

Rancho Santa Fe always seems to have a couple of hundred homes for sale – today’s count is 196, which makes up 26% of the total.  La Jolla has another 152 for sale, and the two areas together make up almost half of the inventory.

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Posted by on Feb 5, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We are already wrapping up the first month of 2017!

It doesn’t look like we will get close to 400 listings this month, which has been the usual number.  If we only get up to 380, it will be 15% fewer than last year:

NSDCC New Listings in January

Year
January Listings
2012
409
2013
410
2014
413
2015
389
2016
445
2017
337 (so far)

The Trump Effect isn’t causing people to flee – at least not yet!

Could the rain have been a deterrent? Chargers leaving town?  The shock and awe around Trump?  Fewer re-freshed listings?  February will be the real test, and buyers are anxiously awaiting!

So far the market has been very orderly.  The listings that looked salable have all been selling, and the relative few that haven’t sold are offset by some long-time listings that didn’t seem to have a chance that went pending too.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jan 30, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 3 comments

Inventory Watch

How about that weather!  Flash-flood warnings, high-surf advisories, and 1-2 inches of rainfall in the last 72 hours!

It’s not stopping buyers and sellers from getting together though!

We had 59 new pendings this week – the most since mid-October!

The lower-end exploded this week too.

There are only 24 houses for sale under $800,000, and their average list price per square foot jumped 10% in one week, to $470/sf.

The $470/sf is higher than the category above it, $800,000 – $1,400,000, which averaged $463/sf.  It’s the first time that’s ever happened!

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY…WAVES BREAKING  22 TO 25 FEET ALONG WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 23, 2017 in Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

I heard of four bidding wars over the weekend – we’re right back at it!

No surge of listing either, which is a leading indicator of how the selling season will break.  The first two January readings of weekly new NSDCC listings:

2014: 138

2015: 121

2016: 122

2017: 108

Expect that the one-story houses will be red hot!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 9, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

I appreciate people sending in articles – keep them coming!

This national article was sent in by three people, and it sums up what every guesser has been saying – more jobs, higher incomes, higher rates, and higher home prices will somehow translate into more sales and a better real estate market in 2017.

Our inventory is so low and picked over that any new listings are going to be overrun by a parade of gawkers.  But only the nearly-perfect homes will be selling because mortgage rates should stabilize and cause buyers to not rush into anything.

It will be the same, until it’s different!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 2, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

NSDCC Annual Listings Count

Here’s a look at the annual number of NSDCC listings – this year, we are going to exceed 5,000 for the first time in five years:

Year
# of Listings
Median LP
Median SP
MSP YoY %diff
MLP – MSP
2012
4,416
$979,990
$850,000
$129,990
2013
4,817
$1,167,890
$975,000
+14.7%
$192,890
2014
4,691
$1,248,000
$1,045,000
+7.2%
$203,000
2015
4,910
$1,295,450
$1,100,000
+5.3%
$195,450
2016
4,985
$1,399,000
$1,150,000
+4.5%
$249,000

Additional inventory is encouraged….up to a point. In 2006, the inventory ballooned to 6,046 listings, which was 9% higher than the previous year’s count. The surge in new listings set buyers back on the their heels, and sales plunged 13% in 2006 compared to 2005.

Will 2017 be the year that the inventory sees a real surge?

A summary of the conditions leading into 2017:

  1. Highest NSDCC prices ever.
  2. Highest rates in two years.
  3. Highest inventory since 2011.
  4. Highest seller optimism ever (MLP – MSP).

Hopefully the Trump Effect will help buyers keep moving!

Posted by on Dec 29, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 7 comments