Inventory Watch

Rates have come down nicely and there are 9% more active NSDCC listings today than there were at this time in 2018.

Yet the pendings can’t even keep up with last year.

With rates in the high-3s, will we at least plateau for a couple of months, like last year?

Maybe the warmer weather will bring out more buyers.

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Inventory Watch

We had that spurt in pendings the previous week, but it cooled right back down this past week:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Pendings
May 6
113
67
364
May 13
86
48
362
May 20
132
55
357
May 27
100
78
375
Jun 3
109
55
365

The graduation season will provide some distractions over the next couple of weeks, but if rates stay in the high-3s, the selling season might stretch out a bit.

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Inventory Watch

Last week we had the most new listings in a year, and this week we had the highest new-pendings count since July – there must be a correlation!

Given the standard of a healthy market being a ratio of 2:1 actives-to-pendings, we’re doing great:

NSDCC Active and Pendings Count Today

Price Range
Actives
Pendings
Ratio
0-$1,000,000
110
80
1.8 to 1
$1.0M – $1,500,000
198
133
1.5 to 1
$1.5M – $2,000,000
165
79
2.1 to 1
$2,000,000+
517
91
5.7 to 1

Even the high-end has 91 pendings!

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Inventory Watch

We had 132 new listings hit the MLS in the last week, which is the highest weekly total in over a year.  Hopefully more listings will mean more sales!

Last year, it was during this time that the momentum picked up nicely, and the only time we had 400+ pendings in 2018.  We also had the highest number of monthly closings for the year in June (299).

NSDCC Total Number of Pending Listings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362
3rd Week of May
369
357
4th Week of May
387
?
1st Week of June
410
?
2nd Week of June
401
?
3rd Week of June
376
?
4th Week of June
358
?

This is as good as it’s going to get in 2019 – it’s prime time!

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Inventory Watch

Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?

Oops, the pendings count stalled:

NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362

We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?

Want another sign?

At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.

But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.

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Inventory Watch

North San Diego County’s coastal region has been having a great selling season so far! The number of pendings have been keeping up nicely with last year’s weekly totals:

NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
?

But look at the second week in May, 2018.  It was the biggest week of the year for adding new pendings with +9% in one week!  Hopefully that means a big surge this week.

If my horse-ranch listing is any indicator, we will – two offers came in over the weekend!

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Inventory Watch

If you’d like to contribute to the Chabad of Poway in hopes of finding solutions to the senseless violence that plagues our society, click here:

Link to Donation Page

What’s the answer?

Let’s start by interviewing the murderers in jail and have them reflect on how stupid it was to throw their life away, and then share that with the kids.

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This is a real estate blog, and I’m going to plow ahead. Let’s keep living!

Here’s a fascinating example of the current market conditions between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and it shows that it’s not just about price.

Today there are 62% more homes for sale priced under $1,000,000 than there were last year – you can buy a cheaper home!  But buyers want quality – look at how the average list-price-per-sf of the pendings relates to the actives:

NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings

Price
# of ACT
Avg. $$/sf
# of PEND
Avg. $$/sf
0-$1.0M
99
$469/sf
84
$481/sf
$1M–$1.5M
193
$507/sf
128
$515/sf
$1.5M–$2M
148
$605/sf
77
$602/sf
$2.0M+
501
88
$873/sf

This is why pricing will likely plateau – people are willing to pay these prices if they can just get a suitable home. They are making their decisions based on location, condition, and schools, and are willing to pass on inferior homes even though they could save some money.

Buyers are decisive too, and are willing to act when they see the right fit. Look at how the average days-on-market compares:

NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings

Price
# of ACT
Avg. DOM
# of PEND
Avg. DOM
0-$1.0M
99
43
84
21
$1M–$1.5M
193
49
128
30
$1.5M–$2M
148
49
77
39
$2.0M+
501
97
88
116

The higher-end buyers are being very deliberate, but the rest are acting!

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Inventory Watch

Let’s compare today’s statistics to the fourth reading in April, 2018:

NSDCC Number of Active/Pending Listings

Price Range
2018 ACT
2018 PEND
2019 ACT
2019 PEND
0-$1.0M
59
96
94
78
$1.0M – $1.5M
162
117
201
117
$1.5M – $2.0M
149
78
145
72
$2.0M+
482
70
491
98
Totals
852
353
931
353

We have the identical number of pendings this year, in spite of a 9% increase in listings – and it’s the high-end that is carrying us, with 40% more pendings this year priced over $2,000,000!

The lower-end is surprising too, with nearly 60% more homes available for sale, yet fewer pendings.  Buyers can’t believe how little you get for almost a million dollars these days.

There is some overlap due to the value-range listings at the cutoffs.

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Inventory Watch

It appears that buyers are being more patient in 2019 – the median days-on-market is 11 days slower this year:

NSDCC Detached-Homes Sales Between Jan 1 – Apr 10

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
2018
660
$1,310,112
17
2019
617
$1,293,691
28

I had three different couples at open house yesterday who told me that if their home would just sell, they’d be in position to buy!

Hopefully we’ll see a surge in the next 1-2 months now that Tiger won.  Speaking of Tiger, the San Diego Case-Shiller Index has risen 246% since he won his first Masters in April, 1997.

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Inventory Watch

Last year’s selling season was a little bumpy but was solid through May – and then dropped off once we got into summer and rates started rising.

The wait-and-see pattern kicked in as 2019 opened, but with rates having eased, we’re on our way now.

If mortgage rates will determine our fate, what can we expect for the rest of 2019?  It looks like we should see mortgage rates stay in the low-4% range for now.  The 30-year fixed rate is typically about 1.75% above the ten-year bond yields, which today is around 2.52%.

This is from the WSJ:

I’m going to guess that our pendings will peak again in May this year, but have a more gradual descent through the rest of 2019 than we had last year.

The relaxing of the average NSDCC list-pricing might help too:

NSDCC # of Actives / Avg. LP-per-sf

Week
$0-$1.0M
$1.0M-$1.5M
$1.5M-$2.0M
Feb 25
67/$494
175/$494
130/$670
Apr 8
91/$455
215/$512
139/$618

The MLS doesn’t support analyses once the counts get too high, so I don’t have any pricing for the Over-$2M category (but should be around $1,000/sf). The number of $2M+ actives has only grown from 453 on February 25 to 472 today. There are 98 pendings too!

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