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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch – Prime Time

We are heading into the best part of the selling season, and once we get past tax day and Easter it should be full steam ahead for about two months. New listings have increased by about 20% in the last two weeks, and buyers have responded with additional pendings (scroll to bottom).

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf
March 31
223
$425/sf
44
2,887sf
April 7
224
$428/sf
44
2,881sf
April 14
233
$429/sf
44
2,892sf

Read More

Posted by on Apr 14, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

No Inventory Surge…Yet

Yesterday reader Mozart mentioned how the inventory number had spiked over at the Department of Numbers:

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/

DoN stats

But the 36% increase is a mistake – today, there are 6,575 detached and attached active listings on the MLS.  They had the same type of occurance last year too, and the following week it dropped back down to the correct number.

The pricing is messed up too – have you seen any sellers backing down?  Me neither, and certainly not in the beginning of April – they will wear out the selling season before thinking about a lower price.

Here are the recent weekly counts of new listings of detached and attached homes around NSDCC:

Week
Det. & Att. New Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Feb 18-24
146
$486/sf
Feb25-Mar3
163
$536/sf
Mar 4-10
163
$512/sf
Mar 11-17
144
$517/sf
Mar 18-24
162
$483/sf
Mar 25-31
128
$496/sf
Apr 1-7
166
$512/sf

No flooding here – a fairly steady stream though.

Last year the increase of new listings between the months of March and April was only 6% – it probably won’t be much different this year. Without new meat, the sales momentum won’t be as predictable.

Posted by on Apr 10, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 4 comments

Inventory Watch

field dayThe NSDCC detached-home sales count for March is currently at 215, which is 28% fewer sales than in March, 2013, and the lowest March count since 2009. The San Diego County count is 20% below last year, and if those stats are similar around the country, look for the media to have a field day speculating about the causes.

There would be more concern if the market was flush with listings that weren’t selling, but that isn’t the case. A few more listings are coming on, but this is the prime selling season and there still is very low selection.

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf
March 31
223
$425/sf
44
2,887sf
April 7
224
$428/sf
44
2,881sf

Read More

Posted by on Apr 7, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

Inventory Watch – More Steady

The sales count for March should be well below the 299 NSDCC detached-home sales closed in 2013 – we’re only at 203 this month, with one day to go plus the late-reporters. We closed 25 sales on the last day of March, 2013. The average SP/sf is up 29% Y-O-Y!

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf
March 31
223
$425/sf
44
2,887sf

Read More

Posted by on Mar 31, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Steady Heat

You know the Under-$800,000 market is red hot when you see the Avg DOM in the low-30s. But average list-pricing isn’t going up – sellers might be leaving a little money on the table. Get good help!

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf

Read More

Posted by on Mar 24, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Spring Surge of Inventory?

homesweethomwThe guy in the video below expects a surge of inventory this spring because of higher prices.

But it’s not happening yet.

Here are the NSDCC detached-home listings that hit the market between Feb. 15 and March 15 (and 2012 had one extra day due to leap year):

Year
# of New Listings
LP Avg $/sf
2012
435
$425/sf
2013
443
$474/sf
2014
400
$551/sf

Greed and money are apparently taking a backseat to the utility value of a home, the comfort and convenience of not moving, and the weather!

Posted by on Mar 20, 2014 in Inventory, Market Conditions | 1 comment

Inventory Watch – No Waiting

We’ve seen the inventory growing lately – then out of nowhere the number of active listings between $1.4 and $2.4 drops by eleven!

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf

Read More

Posted by on Mar 17, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Bubblin’ Up

The number of active listings grew in each category this week, which should be a seasonal shift. But it is the selling season too – so if the active inventory keeps growing, it means buyers aren’t going for the higher pricing:

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf

Read More

Posted by on Mar 10, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Frenzy Lite

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 market has been red hot as of late. But its inventory count grew 7% this week, and pricing and square footage also faltered. We’ll call it noise for now, and check again next week:

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf

Read More

Posted by on Mar 3, 2014 in Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Inventory | 1 comment

Predicting Sales Prices

The Federal Reserve Board has come up with a new way to analyze pricing trends. They are emulating the Case-Shiller Index, but applying it to the list prices of properties marked pending to predict the eventual sales prices:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2014/201416/201416abs.html

Abstract: We construct a new “list-price index” that accurately reveals trends in house prices several months before existing sales price indices like Case-Shiller. Our index is based on the repeat-sales approach but for recent months uses listings data, which are available essentially in real time, instead of transactions data, which become available with signiffcant lags. Our index methodology is motivated by a simple model of the home-selling problem that shows how listings variables such as the list price and marketing time help predict the final sales price. In a sample of three large MSAs over the years 2008-2012, our index (i) accurately forecasts the Case-Shiller index several months in advance, (ii) outperforms forecasting models that do not use listings data, and (iii) outperforms the market’s expectation as inferred from prices on Case-Shiller future contracts.

Full paper (761 KB PDF)

An ideal price predictor would combine these two trends:

SD list prices vs inventory

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/

The lowest inventory seen was February, 2013, and no surprise that when combined with the lowest rates ever that the market reached full-frenzy mode.

They show now that San Diego inventory is about 13% higher than last February, and the list prices have been fairly flat for the last few months.  Because sellers want more than the last guy, sales prices should keep increasing, at least at a moderate rate.

Posted by on Feb 28, 2014 in Inventory, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments