Inventory Watch

The big news about the Fed dropping their rate last week didn’t cause people to rush out and buy a house – in fact, we didn’t even do as well as last year when rates were 1% higher (51 new pendings over the last seven days vs 54 last year at this time).

Rates being 1% lower means they are 22% better than last year:

Remember when rates in the threes used to set off a flurry of sales?  Not any more:

This would be a good week for sellers to lower their price!


Inventory Watch

I don’t think this has happened before.

This week we had the exact same number of new listings AND new pendings as last week (102 & 47)!

The NSDCC active inventory this year has remained in check, however.  We came into summer with a bigger load, but the number of homes for sale didn’t get a July pop like last year:

The Jan-July closed sales are 3% below those in 2018, and the total number of NSDCC pendings today is only 4% lower than last year at this time.

This year’s lower rates have only enabled us to keep close to last year’s activity, and those relatively-stable conditions have kept sellers from hitting the panic button too.


Inventory Watch

I guess I might have jinxed it last week when I said, “How about a late-summer surge!”

This week we had the lowest amount of NSDCC new pendings (47) since February, in spite of mortgage rates being about 3/4% lower than last year.  Hopefully the rest of summer doesn’t just fade away:

Lower-end pricing has been on a runaway train lately.  Last year at this time, the houses under $1,000,000 had list prices that averaged $433/sf.  Today it’s $493/sf, which is a 14% increase!


Inventory Watch

This month the new pendings are hanging with last year’s counts, and with rates being supportive, maybe we’ll see a plateau in the red line above over the next 4-6 weeks?

We can guess why the pendings tapered off after summer – rates were on the run. Today’s rates are among the lowest in recent memory:

How about a late-summer surge!


Inventory Watch

How does our NSDCC inventory compare to last year’s counts? Here they are by price range:

Price Range
1H18 Listings
1H19 Listings
ACT Listings on 7/16/18
ACT Listings on 7/15/19

The inventory under $1,500,000 is about the same as last year, and above $1,500,000 is a little bloaty.

There were 7% more listings between $1.5M and $2.0M that came to market in the first half of 2019 as sellers keep pushing higher. But not everyone deserves to be there just yet – there are 21% more active listings today in that $1.5M-$2.0M range.

Let’s look at how sales have been impacted.

Here are the NSDCC first-half closed sales by price range:

Price Range
1H18 # Sold
Median SP
1H19 # Sold
Median SP

Mortgage rates that are at least 1/2% lower this summer are only keeping sales close to what they were in 2018 – and any extra inventory just waits in line, hoping good fortune will come their way.


Relatively-Low Inventory

Rich’s latest graphs are out, and this inventory history above shows how relatively few homes are for sale locally.

The median detached-home list price for the county today is $849,000!

He did mention a reader’s theory that in the era of online search portals, the inventory has become more efficient.  Better-educated buyers are making faster decisions these days, which keeps the inventory counts down. But the hot buys have always sold quickly, and the over-abundance of data could be dumbing down the decision-making.

Do buyers just grab a house now?

More of Rich’s graphs here:

Inventory Watch

One of our favorite doomers says the tide is rolling out because inventory is up 37% in L.A.

There are 11.5% more San Diego homes for sale, year-over-year.  But in an area of 3.3 million people, having less than 10,000 homes for sale doesn’t sound like panic time – and other metros have more:

Currently we have 1,029 NSDCC houses for sale, and last year at this time the count was 978, or 5% lower.

The tide rolls out at the end of summer- let’s see how many sellers stay on the market in 4Q19.


Inventory Watch

The NAR is pushing their latest propaganda above – but they they gloss over the fact that YoY rates were only 1/4% better in March and April when those decisions were made to close the sales in May.

Rates started rising in 2018, and you can see how it affected the pendings below.  In a fortuitous change this year, rates are dropping and will probably see their 2019 low point in the next couple of weeks as the markets prepare for a Fed rate cut in July – but we aren’t seeing a bump in pendings just yet:


July is probably as good as it’s going to get for the rest of 2019!


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