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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

Reader Chet noticed that the average pricing in our $800,000 – $1,400,000 group is at its lowest LP-per-sf since we started tracking the NSDCC inventory in November 2013. The number of houses for sale in that category has also risen 37% in the last 12 weeks!

There will probably be one more buying surge over the next 30 days that will pick off the rest of the motivated sellers. After that, the Fed Watch for their September meeting should help to stagnate the market further.

Won’t unsuccessful sellers lower their prices as summer winds down? It’s more likely they will cancel and try again next year.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jun 22, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Busy weekend with great weather for home selling! We had 90 new pendings in the last week, the highest weekly count of the year. The inventory is growing too, which means there are more houses from which to choose – or it means more homes not selling, depending on how you look at it.

We are at peak inventory for 2015 – today marks the highest number of detached homes for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad (977) this year.

For those who are thinking of waiting until the market cools down: we had 25-37 new pendings per week in December – when the inventory was 190-220 lower.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jun 8, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We’ve suspected that many of the lower-end listings have been creeping upward into higher-priced categories. Today, the stats for the Under-$800,000 listings and those between $800,000 – $1,400,000 are converging, and before long could just be one group. The List-Price-per-SF is $391sf vs. $402/sf, which is +5% and -5%, respectively from last year.

At this rate, everything will be $1,000,000+ before too long!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jun 1, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

On Memorial Day last year we had 1,037 active NSDCC listings, and today there are 973 houses for sale. The LP-per-sf, average DOM, and average SF are all about the same too!

Given that the houses, sellers, and buyers are virtually 100% different this year, the statistics being virtually identical to last year is an amazing feat of human psychology!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on May 25, 2015 in Inventory | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

I was gone over the weekend – thanks for a couple of days off!  The action remained hot and heavy, with 109 new listings, and 80 new pendings in the last seven days.  It was the first time since July that we had 100+ new listings three weeks in a row, but nobody is giving it away.

Of the 80 new pendings, only twenty of them sold in less than seven days – the average DOM was 40 days.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on May 18, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

In line with the previous post, several good-looking-and-retail-priced listings were marked pending on Mother’s Day!  Ninety percent of the action is under $2,000,000 though – above that is a whole different ballgame.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on May 11, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We had the biggest week of the year so far – 112 new NSDCC house listings since last Monday. Could it be a sign of more inventory to come?

Probably not – the same reasons for ultra-low inventory are still in place. But a three-week rally would be appreciated before we hit the graduation season!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on May 4, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

The Inventory Watch should be where we’ll see any indicators of market trouble.  But today’s inventory is 6% less than a year ago, with only the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category higher (244 vs 240 listings).

A growing inventory would mean sales are slowing, but we’re selling more houses this year than last year.  In the first four months of 2014, we sold 838 NSDCC houses, and we’ve already closed 824 this year with four days to go plus late-reporters!

The 2015 average cost-per-sf is higher too: $432/sf vs. $415/sf last year.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Apr 27, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment