Menu
TwitterRssFacebook
More Links

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

“Severe Housing Drought”

We are used to headline porn, but this one sounds startling – are we having a Severe Housing Drought?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/this-is-whats-behind-the-severe-housing-drought.html

In the article, she says that nationally we have the fewest homes for sale than at any time in the last 18 years.  But are they just selling faster, which would give the appearance of low inventory?  If we have a similar number of houses being listed and they are selling faster, I wouldn’t consider that a drought, let alone a severe drought.

First, let’s compare the total supply and number of closed sales in 2017 to previous years – these are the numbers from January 1st to March 15th:

NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad)

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
1,042
$1,149,000
518
$842,950
31
2014
1,029
$1,295,000
464
$981,500
30
2015
1,043
$1,345,000
459
$1,145,000
31
2016
1,145
$1,489,900
421
$1,105,584
26
2017
987
$1,499,000
431
$1,200,000
24

This year’s number of new listings is 7% below the average of the last four years, but I wouldn’t call that a drought. If I watered my grass 7% less, it wouldn’t die. Besides, 40% of all listings don’t sell, so maybe the fewer listings just means fewer OPTs? The number of closed sales is much lower than previous years, but better than 2016.

How about the rest of the county?

San Diego County

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
6,749
$479,000
4,426
$402,000
30
2014
7,077
$539,000
3,544
$475,000
28
2015
7,129
$569,000
3,582
$500,000
30
2016
7,146
$559,925
3,634
$532,500
24
2017
6,347
$639,500
3,696
$560,000
20

There are 10% fewer listings this year, compared to the average of the previous four years, but sales are HIGHER than any of the last three years. There isn’t a perfect relationship between listings and sales, because some of the closed sales were listed before January 1st. But the trend looks fine.

I don’t keep a record of the number of houses that are pending, but a couple of months ago we were around 300 in NSDCC (between La Jolla and Carlsbad).

Here is today’s count:

Area
# of Active Listings
# of Pendings
Median DOM
NSDCC
795
413
22
San Diego County
3,485
3,070
15

The reason we have a record-low number of homes for sale is because they are selling so fast.  Severe drought isn’t the right adjective – can we call it scorching hot?  Half of the pendings found a buyer in 15 days!

With half of the upcoming closed sales finding their buyer that fast, it means they probably paid the seller’s price, or close.  The other half are sellers who are willing to wait until they get their price!  It means the pricing trend should continue upward.

I think we’re back in the frenzy zone!

Posted by on Mar 23, 2017 in Frenzy, How Hot?, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

While the new listings were normal this week, new pendings erupted:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82

The lower-end market is evaporating right before our eyes:

Date
Number of Listings Under $800,000
Avg. List Price Per SF
Aug 29th
63
$401/sf
Today
19
$462/sf

In an area of 300,000 people (between La Jolla and Carlsbad), there are only 19 houses for sale priced under $800,000, an all-time record low.

The average list-price-per-square-foot has gone up 15% in six months!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 20, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

A normal-looking week around North San Diego County’s coastal region:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59

I was comparing notes with a top agent yesterday, who agreed that the market is on fire right now.  Houses that didn’t sell last year have been selling now, whether they lowered the price or not.  Expect the surge to continue until the first week of April – we will lose some steam due to tax day on the 15th, and Easter on the 16th of April.

We noted that it should get hot again for 3-4 weeks, up to graduation season, and then another surge after the Fourth of July for a month or so!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 13, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Seattle Real Estate

We are seeing the same low-inventory trends in most of the hip-and-happening markets around the country, like Seattle. Sam is a prolific blogger and an active realtor – here’s his take (h/t Susie!):

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seattles-shortage-of-homes-for-sale-foments-disruptive-bidding-wars-2017-03-08

An excerpt:

The headlines read “Seattle’s real estate market is hot!” Under that glossy surface, Seattle real estate’s inventory dearth is a growing, unruly mess.

Home prices in King County rose 12% in February, but that’s no longer an attention-grabber. They rose 18% in the same period one year before.

Inventory is at just 1.1 months. The number of available homes for sale dropped 21% in one year. These crisis-level numbers should be astonishing, but they’ve begun to seem unremarkable. After all, inventory dropped 26% in 2015, 17% in 2014 and 10% in 2013.

The shock has worn off. We’ve been inundated with double-digit noise for so long in the Seattle real estate market that we’ve almost become numb to it. While that’s understandable, it’s also problematic.

King County is issuing 200 new driver’s licenses every day to people moving in from out-of-state. That doesn’t include in-state migration and in-county natural population growth. Meanwhile, the county is only issuing building permits for 27 new housing units per day.

The diverging trend lines of people and homes get further apart by the day, month and year. Prices rise swiftly.

Residents get squeezed. They “drive to qualify”. They live further out, commute longer distances, create more traffic gridlock, spend more on transportation, have less time to spend with their families and experience a diminished quality of life.

There’s no risky financing housing bubble to blame like there was a decade ago. Employment and in-migration in King County is forecast to rise exponentially in the coming years. These are people with real jobs, verified income and real down payments. There just aren’t enough homes, so prices continue to soar.

Read full article here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seattles-shortage-of-homes-for-sale-foments-disruptive-bidding-wars-2017-03-08

Save

Posted by on Mar 9, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 6 comments

Inventory Watch

Phew – back to what we normally expect during the selling season.  We had 102 new listings this week between La Jolla and Carlsbad!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66

The new pendings dipped though, and it makes you wonder if buyers are mulling whether there will be better choices later – and at what price?

There will be a confluence over the next 2-3 months where more inventory gets the fence-sitters to jump in – the Spring Kick!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 6, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The talking heads loved the dip in Pending Sales today, but if there isn’t enough decent homes to sell, then sales will go down.

If there was a big surge of new listings that accompanied a drop in sales, then you can look for the panic button – not before.

You can see below that the new listings were humming along this month, and then we ran into a buzzsaw this week – 66 new listings going into March is low!  Yet the pendings kept coming!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73

There was a five-offer bidding war in the $3Ms in the Ranch over the weekend – I think we’re going to be fine.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Feb 27, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

The selling season is underway!  We have had roughly twice as many new listings as new pendings in each of the last three weeks, which is about right.  Either we will have bursts of new pendings over the next two months, or eventually those unsold listings will begin to stack up.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Feb 20, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Oops, we only had 89 new listings this week, down 12% from last week. But we had the same number of new pendings – 55!

They are forecasting rain for the next two weekends – will the weather be an excuse?  It hasn’t been so far.

Here is the action for the first seven weeks of the year:

NSDCC New Listings & Pendings, First Seven Weeks of the Year

Year
Number of New Listings
Number of New Pendings
NL:NP Ratio
2014
490
321
1.53
2015
537
341
1.57
2016
597
312
1.91
2017
535
318
1.68

We’re going strong, in spite of everything!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Feb 13, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

NSDCC Inventory Breakdown

Number of Houses For Sale by Price Range

There are 751 houses for sale today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and we should be adding 100 or so per week for the next couple of months.

If you are hoping to buy on the lower end, you have an intense experience awaiting you!  There are only 95 houses for sale under $1,000,000, and 67 of those are in Carlsbad.  Find a way to spend more money, or enjoy everything Carlsbad has to offer – it’s a great town!

Rancho Santa Fe always seems to have a couple of hundred homes for sale – today’s count is 196, which makes up 26% of the total.  La Jolla has another 152 for sale, and the two areas together make up almost half of the inventory.

Get Good Help!

Save

Posted by on Feb 5, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments