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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

No surge over the past week, and with the Fourth of July on a Tuesday, we might have light activity this week too.  Hoping for a big July!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60
May 29
112
93
Jun 5
100
71
Jun 12
98
71
Jun 19
81
60
Jun 26
86
48

There are 90 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000 between Carlsbad and La Jolla, and 855 listed above $1,000,000!  Today’s median list price is $2,295,000!

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Posted by on Jun 26, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

A bit of a breather this week, which Doug would find humorous.  But there was also another round of graduations that probably slowed the activity too.  We should see a surge over the next 2-3 weeks as the selling season wraps up!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60
May 29
112
93
Jun 5
100
71
Jun 12
98
71
Jun 19
81
60

There are 15% fewer homes for sale today than there were this time last year – 23% fewer houses for sale that are priced under $1,400,000, and 12% fewer that are priced over $1,400,000.

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Posted by on Jun 19, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

What a month of May!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60
May 29
112
93
Jun 5
100
71

How has the inventory grown during our 2017 selling season?

About what you would expect – except in the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category, which has exploded:

Price Range
February 27th
Today
Difference
0-$800,000
29
27
-7%
$800K – $1.4M
138
220
+59%
$1.4M-$2.4M
233
268
+15%
Over $2.4M
395
424
+7%

The $800K-$1.4M category is probably being fed from both ends?

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Posted by on Jun 5, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The new pendings got back on track this week!

Inventories in the higher-priced categories are growing, however.

In the $800,000 to $1,400,000 category, we have more than 200 NSDCC houses for sale for the first time this year (we had 169 a month ago), and their average list price rose 11% since last week!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60
May 29
112
93

The latest Case-Shiller Index tomorrow!

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Posted by on May 29, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Whoops.  We just had the lowest weekly total of new-pendings in two months.  So much for momentum carrying us through the graduation season!

Could it have been a slower week due to a Mother’s Day lull, or did the good weather over the weekend cause everyone to go to the beach?

The ‘selling season’ is wrapping up here in the next couple of weeks.  Don’t be surprised if the statistics bounce around for the rest of the year!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60

Maybe those new listings need some tips on getting ready to sell? Here is my article on PreparingYourHomeForSale.

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Posted by on May 22, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Another fantastic week!  In spite of Mother’s Day, we still had 80 new pendings – this has to be the hottest three-week stretch we have had since 2013.

There can be a lull around graduation season, but we might blow right through it this year.  Keep the new listings coming!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80

Can we also note that Zillow said the best time to list your San Diego home is in the first two weeks of April – HERE I said it was in May!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on May 15, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

NSDCC Inventory, First Third of Year

So our NSDCC market is cooking….is the amount of inventory to blame?

One-third of 2017 is complete – let’s compare it to recent years:

New Listings Between January-April

Year
New Listings, Jan – Apr
New Listings in April only
2013
1,822
534
2014
1,746
511
2015
1,747
471
2016
1,906
512
2017
1,695
456

Prices are at all-time highs, and FEWER people want to sell??

How can you explain it?  What is different now?

Is it His Orangeness?  The change in president is a notable difference between 2017 and the previous years, but there hasn’t been any specific orders directed at the real estate business, and mortgage rates have stayed about the same.  He could be causing more people to hunker down, but you would think that people would be just as likely to flee!

Potential home sellers know by now what’s in store with Trump.  Not much, if anything, will get done that impacts the real estate selling business.

So what is it?  Why aren’t more people selling at these prices?

It’s because they have nowhere to go that is any better.  The baby-boomers who own most of the coastal real estate have successfully bought one or more personal residences to get to this one, and it will do – it is their trophy property.  Selling a rental property via a 1031 exchange just to avoid taxation isn’t worth the hassle – and how do you do any better than NSDCC?

There are approximately 300,000 people in our market, hopefully we will have at least 1,600 houses to sell during the first four months of every year.

It is the 10% to 20% on the fringe that make the difference.

Some years there are a few extra people who decide to list their house. In 2016 we had 7% more houses listed than the 5-year average. A surge like that can result in more sales, or cause buyers to wait-and-see – it depends on price.

Baby boomers are young enough that they can still manage to live in their long-time residences, but this really should be the peak of the low-inventory era.  Don’t we have to see more boomer-owned properties coming to market as they shuffle off to the retirement home, or the Big McMansion in the sky?

Keep an eye on the fringe – the extra 10% to 20% surges in inventory is where we will see a notable change first!  Until then, expect more of the same!

Posted by on May 8, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 3 comments

Inventory Watch – Record Week!

Homes are selling!

The 94 new pendings in the last week were the most since we began tracking them in May, 2013! We’ve only hit 90 once, back in June, 2015.

But the market is specific – the inventory of houses listed over $2,400,000 has grown 15% in the last four weeks.

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94

This has the makings of the best May ever!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on May 8, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The great weather helped to fuel home sales this week! The 111 new listing were the most since last July, and the 88 new pendings were the most we’ve had since June 8, 2015!

We’re in the peak selling season!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88

Those who like to speculate on the future of real estate might be interested in the discussion we’ve had in the comment section – CLICK HERE.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on May 1, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment