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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

Another good week for new pendings, and we’re running at roughly the same pace as last year:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Jul 24
86
61
Jul 31
90
75
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62

We’ve had the quandary of the high-end market being bloated for years, while the lower-end has been red hot with very little inventory.

But look at this development in less than two months:

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
July 3
21
$442/sf
41
1,719sf
August 21
39
$428/sf
40
1,804sf

Stick around, it’s going to be an exciting off-season!

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Posted by on Aug 21, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

Last week’s comment: “In spite of what seems to be a somewhat bloated end-of-summer inventory, the new pendings have been very solid”:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Jul 24
86
61
Jul 31
90
75
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65

August 14th: I said ‘somewhat bloated’ because of the higher-end inventory.  Today there are 435 houses for sale that are listed over $2,400,000 – but only 249 have sold this year, or about 35 per month.  A year’s worth of inventory!

Conversely, there are only 487 houses for sale listed under $2,400,000, and 1,685 have sold this year – which means we have about 2 month’s worth of inventory priced under $2,400,000!

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Posted by on Aug 14, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Low Inventory = Low Sales?

Our head cheerleader keeps saying that the lower inventory is the main reason why there have been fewer home sales nationwide:

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, says “Closings were down in most of the country last month because interested buyers are being tripped up by supply that remains stuck at a meager level and price growth that’s straining their budget.”

Is that the case between La Jolla and Carlsbad?

Here is the history, with a bubble-look-back to the 2007 stats too:

NSDCC Total Listings and Sales, Jan 1 to July 31:

Year
Total Listings
Total Sales
TL/TS Ratio
Median Days on Market
2007
3,582
1,642
2.18
87
2012
2,950
1,735
1.70
68
2013
3,268
1,967
1.66
40
2014
3,181
1,701
1.87
49
2015
3,387
1,876
1.81
41
2016
3,485
1,793
1.94
45
2017
3,107
1,837
1.69
28

We have had 11% fewer listings this year, but 2% more sales than in 2016!

The higher prices don’t seem to be getting in the way either!

Why does Yunnie keep babbling on with his nonsense?  It’s because the realtor industry never wants to mention how critical the price is to the equation.

Price will fix anything!

All we really know is that more sellers and buyers have been willing to come together on price this year – and in a frenzy-like fashion, similar to 2013!

Posted by on Aug 7, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We’re rolling into the real estate’s dog days of summer, where the listings that missed the selling season need to adjust sharply on price to help cause a sale.

Percentage change in the active inventory since the first week of April:

0-$800,000: +8% (26 to 28 listings)

$800,000 – $1,400,000: +26%

$1,400,000 – $2,400,000: +16%

Over $2,400,000: +15%

Plenty of choices available for buyers!

Tomorrow is the latest Case-Shiller Index.

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Posted by on Jul 24, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We had a surge of new listings this week, and the new pendings were slow to follow – but the same thing happened last year:

Week
2016 New Listings/Pend
2017 New Listings/Pend
1st week of June
91/68
100/71
2nd week
104/58
98/71
3rd week
111/62
81/60
4th week
109/69
86/48
1st week of July
99/59
88/65
2nd week
73/43
80/55
3rd week
119/61
109/64
Totals
706/420
642/434

We’re still doing better than last year, which was a good year.

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Posted by on Jul 17, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Let’s take a look at how the NSDCC market has changed since the spring selling season kicked into gear

Here are the differences in active inventory between March 6th and today:

Price Range
# of ACT March 6
July 10
Avg LP/sf March 6
July 10
0-$800K
32
27
$458/sf
$456/sf
$800-$1400K
148
215
$470/sf
$542/sf
$1400-$2400K
228
277
$636/sf
$619/sf
$2400K+
387
429
$0/sf
$0/sf

The average list-price-per-square-foot in the $800,000-$1,400,000 category has risen 15% in four months, and the number of active listings ballooned 45% in the same time. Buyers must be price-sensitive!

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Posted by on Jul 10, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

New inventory is dropping off – for the first time on this chart we’ve had fewer than 90 new listings three weeks in a row:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60
May 29
112
93
Jun 5
100
71
Jun 12
98
71
Jun 19
81
60
Jun 26
86
48
Jul 3
88
65

Last year, we averaged 91 new listings and 64 new pendings per week between 4th of July and Labor Day. If we can stay around 80-90 new listings, and 50-60 new pendings per week this year, we’ll ride out the summer in fine fashion!

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Posted by on Jul 3, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

No surge over the past week, and with the Fourth of July on a Tuesday, we might have light activity this week too.  Hoping for a big July!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68
May 1
111
88
May 8
96
94
May 15
93
80
May 22
104
60
May 29
112
93
Jun 5
100
71
Jun 12
98
71
Jun 19
81
60
Jun 26
86
48

There are 90 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000 between Carlsbad and La Jolla, and 855 listed above $1,000,000!  Today’s median list price is $2,295,000!

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Posted by on Jun 26, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments