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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

In the never-ending attempt to make sense of the market using data, it is interesting to note today that in two out of three price categories, the current pendings are priced higher than the actives.

Price
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
NSDCC Pendings
Avg. LP/sf
Under $1M
112
$434/sf
57
$467/sf
$1M to $1.5M
203
$487/sf
110
$483/sf
$1.5M to $2M
174
$612/sf
51
$642/sf

It’s makes me think that the home’s condition is what’s driving sales.  People are willing to buy, and even pay a little more for the creampuffs, while the homes with any defects are struggling to sell.

Buyers are looking for any reason not to buy, and stay on the couch.  All we need to fix that is a compelling home/price!

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Posted by on Oct 15, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The number of pendings went up this week, giving hope that our local real estate market will glide through the off-season.

There are 19% more houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad today than there were a year ago, but it doesn’t feel like it – unless you are in the higher-end market where there are still 523 houses priced over $2,000,000 that are selling slowly (84 pending though!).

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Posted by on Oct 8, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Growing Inventory

For those looking for our jumping-the-shark moment, this might be it.

Inventory is growing, and there is only one reason: More prices are wrong.

But when you sell your best asset down the river and let amateurs run it who are out of touch with reality, you get explanations like this:

The number of homes for sale in the country is starting to flatten, which realtor.com® researchers say is signaling a “crucial inflection point for the inventory crisis.” Inventory has decreased slightly by 0.2 percent from a year ago, but is poised for an increase in the months ahead due to an 8 percent increase in new listings. This marks the largest annual jump since 2013, according to a new report from realtor.com®.

“After years of record-breaking inventory declines, September’s almost-flat inventory signals a big change in the real estate market,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com®. “Would-be buyers who had been waiting for a bigger selection of homes for sale may finally see more listings materialize. But don’t expect the level to jump dramatically. Plenty of buyers in the market are scooping up homes as soon as they’re listed, which will keep national increases relatively small for the time being.”

She gives the impression that more homes for sale will be satisfied by pent-up demand – that we shouldn’t “expect the level to jump dramatically”, because the new inventory will get scooped up.

If you ask me, +34% and +24% is dramatic!

Inventory is up because buyers are waiting for a bigger selection of affordable and better-priced homes for sale.  Any time the inventory grows, it is due to overly-optimistic pricing.

Posted by on Oct 6, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 21 comments

Inventory Watch

Here we are – Happy 4Q18!

Predictably, the inventory is starting to subside, and hopefully just leaving the motivated sellers.  The number of houses in escrow is a good gauge, and they have been steady over the last five weeks (312, 302, 305, 296, and 302).

The September sales are going to be less than last year though.

We had 259 NSDCC sales in September, 2017, and 264 in 2016.  We’ve had 192 sales marked closed last month – but it’s early. It should get up to 220 or more.

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Posted by on Oct 1, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The NSDCC Pendings by price range vs last week:

Price Range
# of Pendings Last Week
# of Pendings This Week
% change
Under $1.0M
62
61
-1.6%
$1.0M to $1.5M
129
125
-3%
$1.5M to $2.0M
64
52
-19%
Over $2.0M
65
72
+11%

Wow, the Over-$2.0M market is on fire!

The total number of pendings is down to where they were in February, so the off-season has begun.  What can we expect the rest of the year?

NSDCC detached-home sales compared to 2017:

Third of Year
# of 2017 Sales
# of 2018 Sales
YoY % change
Jan-Apr
883
843
-5%
May-Aug
1,243
1,116
-10%
Sept-Dec
958
?
?

This year’s selling season was plagued with wildly over-priced listings, so no surprise that the number of sales dropped off year-over-year.

I think we’ll see a rebound of sorts, and sales in the last third of 2018 only be about 5% less than in 2017. Anyone trying to sell during the off-season should be more motivated, and as a result, be priced more competitively. We’ll see!

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Posted by on Sep 10, 2018 in Forecasts, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Labor Day

The NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings by price range:

Price Range
NSDCC Actives
NSDCC Pendings
A:P Ratio
Avg. DOM
Under $1.0M
109
62
2 to 1
38
$1.0M to $1.5M
207
129
2 to 1
45
$1.5M to $2.0M
172
64
3 to 1
67
Over $2.0M
541
65
8 to 1
105

In the past, we’ve considered a ratio of 2:1 to be about normal. Given this market and time of year, these look pretty good, except for the high-end which has always had excess supply. Read More

Posted by on Sep 3, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

There are 117 NSDCC houses for sale listed under $1,000,000 today, which is the highest count of the year – even though the average cost-per-sf is near the low of the year ($430/sf).  But the rest of the market is holding up, based on the average cost-per-sf of the active listings:

The MLS doesn’t publish the stats for the Above-$2M market for some reason.

In the other three categories, the number of houses for sale are at, or near, their highs for the year, which can be expected for the end of summer.  The new-pendings are slowing down, which is normal too for this time of year:

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Posted by on Aug 27, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 3 comments

Inventory Watch

The number of new listings dropped 10% compared to last week, and the total number of pendings dropped 5%.  The rest of the year should dwindle down quietly.

Surprisingly, the segment that is struggling the worst is the low-end.  The number of NSDCC houses listed under $1,000,000 is near the high for the year, and the average $$/sf is at the low for the year.  The number of pendings is similar to January’s count too.  We may have run out of people willing to pay so much, for so little.

Hopefully September will bring deal-shoppers around one more time!

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Posted by on Aug 20, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment