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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

I heard of four bidding wars over the weekend – we’re right back at it!

No surge of listing either, which is a leading indicator of how the selling season will break.  The first two January readings of weekly new NSDCC listings:

2014: 138

2015: 121

2016: 122

2017: 108

Expect that the one-story houses will be red hot!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 9, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

I appreciate people sending in articles – keep them coming!

This national article was sent in by three people, and it sums up what every guesser has been saying – more jobs, higher incomes, higher rates, and higher home prices will somehow translate into more sales and a better real estate market in 2017.

Our inventory is so low and picked over that any new listings are going to be overrun by a parade of gawkers.  But only the nearly-perfect homes will be selling because mortgage rates should stabilize and cause buyers to not rush into anything.

It will be the same, until it’s different!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 2, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

NSDCC Annual Listings Count

Here’s a look at the annual number of NSDCC listings – this year, we are going to exceed 5,000 for the first time in five years:

Year
# of Listings
Median LP
Median SP
MSP YoY %diff
MLP – MSP
2012
4,416
$979,990
$850,000
$129,990
2013
4,817
$1,167,890
$975,000
+14.7%
$192,890
2014
4,691
$1,248,000
$1,045,000
+7.2%
$203,000
2015
4,910
$1,295,450
$1,100,000
+5.3%
$195,450
2016
4,985
$1,399,000
$1,150,000
+4.5%
$249,000

Additional inventory is encouraged….up to a point. In 2006, the inventory ballooned to 6,046 listings, which was 9% higher than the previous year’s count. The surge in new listings set buyers back on the their heels, and sales plunged 13% in 2006 compared to 2005.

Will 2017 be the year that the inventory sees a real surge?

A summary of the conditions leading into 2017:

  1. Highest NSDCC prices ever.
  2. Highest rates in two years.
  3. Highest inventory since 2011.
  4. Highest seller optimism ever (MLP – MSP).

Hopefully the Trump Effect will help buyers keep moving!

Posted by on Dec 29, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 7 comments

Inventory Watch

The last two weeks were impacted by rain, yet both had more new pendings than new listings!  We are heading into 2017 with momentum, but that, and about $5 will get you a cup of coffee if sellers come out too optimistic.

The one NSDCC market that is guaranteed to be hot are the homes priced under $800,000.  There are only 29 for sale today, the lowest reading EVER!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Dec 26, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Whether it’s due to rising rates, the Trump effect, or just pure demand, our local market keeps rocking!

New NSDCC detached-home listings this week: 45

New NSDCC detached-home pendings this week: 58

In spite of being smack dab in the middle of the holiday season, and two days of rain – the 58 new pendings are the most since October!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Dec 19, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

We should have a dwindling inventory over the next 7-10 days as sellers cancel for the holidays – and get ready for the spring selling season, where they will expect better results than they’ve had during the last 3-6 months of the off-season.

Will it be better next year?

Probably not, and it could be worse if Trump messes it up.

Active-inventory stats for the 2nd week in December for the last three years:

Price Range
2014 # of Actives
LP/sf
2015 #
LP/sf
2016 #
LP/sf
0-$800,000
113
$375/sf
62
$388/sf
35
$417/sf
$800K-$1.4M
247
$435/sf
193
$439/sf
200
$443/sf
$1.4M-$2.4M
221
$592/sf
211
$582/sf
221
$588/sf
Over $2.4M
325
$1,013/sf
375
$1,026/sf
398
$979/sf

NSDCC pricing hasn’t changed much over the last three years.  It gets skewed in the early spring because only the creampuffs are selling.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Dec 12, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 4 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-11-23-14-23-48

We had 86 new listings this week, which is close to double the norm for the first week of December.  But there were a bunch of listings that expired – the net gain was only +15 after the 47 new pendings.

There were actually 9% fewer cancelled, expired, and withdrawn listings between Nov. 1st and Dec. 1st this year, compared to 2015.  Hopefully it means more sellers see the benefit of being on the market when there is less competition?

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Dec 5, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-11-25-16-52-33

The Inventory Watch started the last week of November in 2013.

Here is how the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad market has fared:

Last Week of November

Under $800,000
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
2014
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
2015
70
$400/sf
57
1,974sf
2016
31
$411/sf
37
1,851sf
$800,000 – $1.4M
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
2014
256
$431/sf
69
2,948sf
2015
210
$444/sf
64
2,801sf
2016
207
$439/sf
59
2,879sf
$1.40M – $2.40M
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
227
$580/sf
81
3,692sf
2014
234
$583/sf
97
3,687sf
2015
225
$595/sf
91
3,626sf
2016
235
$595/sf
86
3,587sf

Once you get over $1,000,000, it’s been steady/flat.

But look how the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category has dropped in numbers, just like the Under-$800,000 range has done.  Fewer and fewer people are willing to sell for less.

The inventory over $2,400,000 has risen from 340 active listings in November, 2013 to 415 houses for sale today, which is a 22% increase.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Nov 28, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

sp2

The NSDCC new pendings rebounded nicely this week, with 52 houses opening escrow, which is about the weekly average for the last couple of Novembers.

It’s not too late to buy an expensive home this year, and there are still plenty to consider.  There have been 452 houses sold that have closed over $2,000,000 this year between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and there are 489 currently for sale – about a year’s supply!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Nov 21, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments