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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

2016-06-22 10.48.57

Home sellers won’t be thinking much about Brexit – it’s too vague and far away.

What should concern sellers is the calendar – July starts on Friday!  But it’s not because the market cools off in the second half of the year.

Last year, 51% of the NSDCC sales closed in the first half, and 49% closed in the second half.  The median sales price is the first half was $1,127,500, and in the second half it was $1,070,000, which is close enough.

But doesn’t everyone believe that the ‘spring selling season’ is the time to sell?

Yes – the best buys sell first, leaving the picked-overs for the second half!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jun 27, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-06-19 11.01.03

The higher-end inventory has been bloated – today we have 468 NSDCC houses for sale over $2,400,000, and 43 have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

But in the next category down, the number of houses for sale has been rising for weeks.  On April 18th, we had 257 active listings priced between $1,400,000 and $2,400,000, and now we have 344 for sale, which is a 34% increase in just two months – and during the selling season!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jun 20, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.16.32

The amount of new listings is up 5% year-over-year, which isn’t alarming – in fact, it could have inspired more sales, like in 2013.  Instead, there are 22 fewer sales this year, which isn’t bad because 2015 was a great year.

NSDCC Action Between Jan 1 – May 31:

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Closed Sales
Median SP
2006
2,866
$1,125,000
1,109
$989,000
2012
2,109
$975,000
1,138
$800,000
2013
2,312
$1,158,000
1,337
$900,000
2014
2,243
$1,285,000
1,108
$1,000,000
2015
2,255
$1,299,000
1,194
$1,130,000
2016
2,376
$1,450,000
1,172
$1,150,000

The median list price has really jumped this year, and today, 89% of all active listings are priced over $1,000,000.

Yet the number of active listings priced under $800,000 has grown from 26 at the end of April, to 50 today.  Remember our new-pendings count of 83 two weeks ago?  This week’s count was 58!

But check the first line – the 2006 stats, the high point of the last bubble.  It will take a flood of new listings to cause a big problem – the course we are on is to Stagnant City!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jun 13, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.19.59

Number of NSDCC Houses for Sale:

Year
End of March
End of April
Beg of June
2014
869
951
1,065
2015
830
892
1,000
2016
941
996
1,043

The inventory is increasing, but that has been standard for this time of year. It makes sense – sellers are prone to shoot too high on price, and more of their listings are stacking up.

It’s during the summer months that we figure out which sellers are to find a way to the finish line by getting sharper on price, or just get lucky!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jun 6, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.23.13

We are in the prime selling season!

In the weekly reports since the end of March, we have averaged 105 new listings each week.  They aren’t all high-enders either – the median list price has only been $1,399,900 since March 28th.

The average list prices are about 5% higher than they were last May.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on May 23, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

sp

You can’t complain about the inventory count – we’ve had 532 new listings hit the market over the last five weeks.

But what you get for your money might bug you – the list prices are averaging over $400/sf in all price categories, and the median list price of houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad is $2,150,000.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on May 16, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.19.03

For a couple of days last week, it seemed like there was flood of new listings, but they come in fits and starts.  It turns out the overall weekly total was about the same as it has been the last couple of years (when averaging over the last six weeks):

Average Number of NSDCC New Listings Per Week (April/May)

2014: 109

2015: 94

2016: 104

Last year looks more frenzied-up, but it depends how you measure.  Here are the total number of all residential listings in San Diego County listed between January 1 and April 30th:

SD County Total Number of New Listings, Jan – Apr

2014: 11,749

2015: 12,028

2016: 11,902

Generally-speaking, there is still no flood.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on May 9, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.18.59

The number of listings priced under $800,000 grew from 26 to 33 this week – an explosion of 27%.  But seriously, the average LP/sf did get back up to $409/sf, which isn’t the first time.

The curious statistic is the cost-per-sf of the next category.  Since we’ve been tracking over the last 2+ years, the average LP/sf has been as high as $470/sf for those listings between $800,000 and $1,400,000, but today it’s down to $418/sf – the closest it’s been to the category below.

It probably means that the sluggishness is starting lower and lower.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on May 2, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.16.51

Two records set today:

The lowest count of NSDCC active listings priced at $800,000 and Under: 26

The highest count of NSDCC active listings priced at $2.4M and Over: 451

Using the number of closed sales in the last 30 days, let’s calculate the months of supply for each:

$800,000 and Under: 26/57 = 0.5-month supply.

$2.4M and Over: 451/29 = 15.6-month supply.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 25, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments