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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Low Inventory Driving Markets

sf

Could prices keep going higher?  Yes, due to the lack of inventory.  It is a game-changer that we haven’t experienced before – usually as prices rise to new levels, sellers tend to flood the market to get out at the top.

Not this time.

Our local NSDCC inventory has been steady – no big rush by sellers to cash in, mostly because they have nowhere to go that is any better.

NSDCC Total Detached-Home Listings, Jan 1 to Aug 15

2004:  3,671

2005:  3,706

2006:  4,369

2007:  3,823

************

2012:  3,151

2013:  3,471

2014:  3,403

2015:  3,474

Could it continue?  Yes, it could.  We all know about how the San Francisco market has been fetching extraordinary prices.  Yet, their inventory is not exploding – instead, it’s going down.

From the WSJ:

A scarcity of listings is sending prices to new highs. In June, the number of new listings in San Francisco was down 23.1% from a year prior, according to the San Francisco Association of Realtors. The average listing spent 26 days on the market, compared with 31 days in June 2014. Median sales prices were up to $1.177 million—a 12.1% jump from a year ago. Real-estate agents say bidding wars are most common on properties priced below $2.5 million, and that buyers often make offers on numerous properties—anywhere from two to 20—before finally winning one.

Read the full story here, with many bidding-war examples:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-san-franciscos-bidding-wars-home-prices-go-ballistic-1440683103

Posted by on Aug 28, 2015 in Bidding Wars, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 9 comments

Inventory Watch

Now that the pricing increases have moderated, a slow/stagnant market is likely to prevail.  Sellers typically hire the agent who promises the highest price, and are happy to sit and wait for the lucky sale.

What does it look and feel like?

Check the high-end markets, where stagnation is standard.  You see many of the same houses listed on and off for years, and plenty of inventory.

Today, there are 412 houses for sale over $2,400,000, which is 40% of the overall inventory.  Their number has grown from 309 in early March, and approaching the highs of last September again.

But only 25 have sold in the last 30 days.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Aug 24, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 3 comments

Inventory Watch

Early last month we had that little blip in new listings that I thought could mean something, but the New Actives and New Pendings counts sure have settled down since:

summer 2015 act-pend

We were on about the same pace last year at this time!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Aug 17, 2015 in Inventory | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

As the summer selling season winds down, the tale of two markets continues.  The lower-end has stayed red hot, mostly because the floor feels like it is rising every day.  In the Under-$800,000 category, there are 28% fewer homes for sale today than a year ago!

But it gets downright leisurely above that – only a 4% decline compared to last year, even though the average list-price-per-square-foot stats are about 10% lower than they were in February/March!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Aug 10, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

Hello August!

The summer market is winding down, and the unsuccessful sellers will be cancelling their listings over the next two months – which is great for buyers. Why?  Because any new listings won’t be using those OPTs as price indicators!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Aug 3, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

Today’s inventory is about 4% less than what it was last year at this time.  Sales this month look to be on track to match those in July, 2014, but pricing is starting to flatten out.  The median sales price is only about 3% higher, and the average cost-per-sf only 1% higher than last July.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jul 27, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The actives:pendings ratio looked more normal this past week. After the previous week’s shocking 126:58, we came back to earth with a 93:62 ratio for the last seven days. Last summer we were hitting an average ratio around 1.5:1, and this summer has been about the same.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jul 20, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We had 126 new listings in the last week, the highest weekly total of the year (and 13% higher than the previous high!).  The 58 new pendings were among the lowest weekly totals, and those under that were in January.  Yikes!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jul 13, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The number of houses for sale listed under $800,000 popped over 100 for the first time this year, and their average list price is a whopping $404/sf – which is back over $400/sf for the first time since February.

In other words, the sludgepit of over-priced goo is nearing its peak of the year.  The mildly-interested sellers will start cancelling their listings in August.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Jul 6, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments