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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

Let’s compare this week NSDCC stats to the same week in 2016:

Price Range
2016 # of Listings
Avg LP/sf
2017 # of Listings
Avg LP/sf
0-$800K
38
$408/sf
17
$443/sf
$800-$1400K
259
$437/sf
161
$497/sf
$1400K-$2400K
264
$590/sf
261
$623/sf
$2,400,000+
426
$979/sf
373
$1,171/sf

The 17 houses listed under $800,000 is the lowest count ever, and in the next category, $800,000 to $1,400,000, the count is down 38% also.

On the high-end, the $979/sf was the average on December 12, 2016 which was the first time the listing count came under 400. I can’t get the MLS to report the $$/sf when the listings count is over 400.

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Posted by on Oct 23, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

Inventory Watch

A quieter week but still plenty of new pendings:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71
Sept 11
81
42
Sept 18
77
47
Sept 25
67
59
Oct 2
71
61
Oct 9
96
63
Oct 16
72
51

Today’s NSDCC median list price: $2,300,000

NSDCC median sales price, last 30 days: $1,245,300

A spread of more than a million dollars!

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Posted by on Oct 16, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

Our market keeps chugging along, but we should start hearing about lower sales shortly from the mainstream media:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71
Sept 11
81
42
Sept 18
77
47
Sept 25
67
59
Oct 2
71
61
Oct 9
96
63

But the last six weeks compares well with last year:

NSDCC New Listings/New Pendings

2016 = 511/379

2017 = 466/343

Diff = -9%/-9%

When both the new listings and the new pendings decline at the same 9% YoY, it’s just a hint of what our new stagnation will look like.   Dropping sales can be purely be from fewer choices available.

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Posted by on Oct 9, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

These new numbers were gathered yesterday morning, and look normal:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71
Sept 11
81
42
Sept 18
77
47
Sept 25
67
59
Oct 2
71
61

The tragic event in Las Vegas might slow things down a bit, but our market has shown remarkable resiliency to catastrophes in the past.

Perhaps we’ve become numb now after so many tragedies, or it makes us want to hurry up and hunker down?

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Posted by on Oct 3, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The new pendings had a nice bounce back this week, but just making up some ground lost over the last couple of weeks. Last September, we averaged 90 new listings, and 66 new pendings per week:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71
Sept 11
81
42
Sept 18
77
47
Sept 25
67
59

We don’t mind if the new listings drop off – all we want are motivated sellers, because it is so unlikely that buyers will wildly overpay now.  With all the outside distractions, it will be a little too easy for casual sellers to wait until next year.

It looks like potential sellers are already thinking about next year:

(H/T Rich)

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Posted by on Sep 25, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Rich Toscano | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

An inspiring new movie was released this week about a volunteer rescuer in the South Tower on 9/11:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/nyregion/welles-crowther-man-in-red-bandanna-911.html

We will never forget!

The demand cooled off a bit this week:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71
Sept 11
81
42

But last month’s closed sales did hit the 270 mark:

Year
# of Sales
Avg SF
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
2012
298
3,255sf
$381/sf
$865,000
77
2013
324
2,782sf
$437/sf
$953,750
40
2014
246
2,889sf
$500/sf
$1,050,000
45
2015
278
2,874sf
$470/sf
$1,030,000
44
2016
288
3,169sf
$487/sf
$1,199,500
48
2017
270
3,144sf
$551/sf
$1,250,500
50

If there was ever going to be a time when buyers had additional negotiating power, it would be over the next four months.  But there will only be a select number of sellers willing to play ball.

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Posted by on Sep 11, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

September should be a productive month, as the motivated sellers and buyers make a late push to get something done before the holidays:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Jul 24
86
61
Jul 31
90
75
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71

With 74 new listings and 71 new pendings, it looks like we only had a net change of +3 to the inventory.  But the actual change was -60, which means sellers are already cancelling their listings for the off-season.  Hopefully that will continue, and make it easier for buyers to identify the motivated sellers.

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Posted by on Sep 4, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

Another good week for new pendings, and we’re running at roughly the same pace as last year:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Jul 24
86
61
Jul 31
90
75
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60

To give you an example of the higher-end bloatedness, there are 395 NSDCC active listings priced over $2,500,000, and six went pending this week.

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Posted by on Aug 28, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Another good week for new pendings, and we’re running at roughly the same pace as last year:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Jul 24
86
61
Jul 31
90
75
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62

We’ve had the quandary of the high-end market being bloated for years, while the lower-end has been red hot with very little inventory.

But look at this development in less than two months:

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
July 3
21
$442/sf
41
1,719sf
August 21
39
$428/sf
40
1,804sf

Stick around, it’s going to be an exciting off-season!

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Posted by on Aug 21, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments