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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch


We have about the same number of NSDCC houses for sale as usual this time of year, and the list-pricing appears to have plateaued too:

NSDCC Active Listings, 3rd Reading in December

Year
# of Active Listings
4Q Median List Price
2014
878
$1,199,000
2015
821
$1,348,500
2016
798
$1,377,500
2017
641
$1,549,900
2018
818
$1,550,000

The Fed meeting will be the biggest news of the week – if mortgage rates would improve between now and mid-January, we could see an active start of the year.  If not, then the wait-and-see mode will be irresistible for buyers.

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Posted by on Dec 17, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The slowdown started during the summer, so there was some evidence of it by the beginning of August – and it has been in the news non-stop ever since.

Are sellers getting the message?

Maybe, but they must think it applies to someone else:

NSDCC Average List-Price-Per-SF:

Week
Under-$1M
$1.0M to $1.5M
$1.5M to $2.0M
Aug 1
$434/sf
$493/sf
$590/sf
$434/sf
$496/sf
$596/sf
$426/sf
$494/sf
$608/sf
$430/sf
$493/sf
$622/sf
Sep 3
$427/sf
$486/sf
$611/sf
$436/sf
$489/sf
$603/sf
$439/sf
$483/sf
$613/sf
$440/sf
$476/sf
$618/sf
Oct 1
$441/sf
$476/sf
$624/sf
$441/sf
$481/sf
$612/sf
$434/sf
$487/sf
$612/sf
$426/sf
$492/sf
$602/sf
$422/sf
$495/sf
$601/sf
Nov 5
$418/sf
$490/sf
$601/sf
$449/sf
$498/sf
$605/sf
$449/sf
$498/sf
$624/sf
$450/sf
$492/sf
$620/sf
Dec 3
$454/sf
$478/sf
$611/sf
$455/sf
$487/sf
$619/sf

Lower their price? They’d rather not sell – and this is December, when you’d think the sellers who are on the open market must be motivated.

Don’t get your hopes up about seeing a big dump on price in Spring, 2019. If it were to happen, it will happen quietly, and you’ll only see it after the fact in late summer, once sellers have exhausted their optimism.

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Posted by on Dec 10, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, Slowdown | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

The more I study our local statistics, the less worried I get about 2019 – at least as far as how we compare today to previous years.

If the current active inventory was a bloated number that far exceeded previous years, there would be more concern, but we’re right in there – and last year was an anomaly.

The avg. number of NSDCC active listings for the first week of December is 859:

NSDCC Stats, First Week of December

Year
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Active Inventory of Detached-Homes
2013
25
34
870
2014
47
37
923
2015
57
42
865
2016
86
47
903
2017
45
39
700
2018
67
45
893

Obviously, the high-end is where concern should be, but here’s an example of how unpredictable the market is.

Rancho Pacifica is the high-end gated community between Carmel Valley and Fairbanks Ranch full of custom homes built mostly in the 200-2007 era.  If you like Tuscan, you will love RP!

There have only been two sales this year over $4,000,000 in RP, yet look what happened last month.  Three listings in the high-$5,000,000s went pending in November – two of them last week (click to enlarge):

Next year we should have more selection, and less predictability than ever!

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Posted by on Dec 3, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The Inventory Watch started during the last week of November in 2013, as we were coming off a blistering frenzy.  Here are the number of active listings logged for the last reading in November:

Year
Total Number of Active Listings, End of November
2013
907
2014
960
2015
896
2016
888
2017
739
2018
930

The 2017 market will go down as one of the best years ever!  Like we saw towards the end of 2014, the previous frenzy conditions created overly-optimistic sellers, which is reflected in the higher amount of unsold listings.

The NSDCC median sales price for November, 2013 was $1,030,000, and the average mortgage rate was 3.99%.

This month, the median sales price is $1,310,000 (which is +27% from 2013), and today’s mortgage rate is 4.94%!

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Posted by on Nov 26, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The new listings dropped 28% from the previous week, and we probably won’t have many this week either as we head into Thanksgiving. The overall 2018 inventory has been in line with previous years, and that’s probably including at least 5% to 10% more refreshed listings than ever before:

Year
Total Number of Listings, Jan 1 – Nov 15
2014
4,430
2015
4,736
2016
4,843
2017
4,400
2018
4,539

We’ll get through the rest of the year, and then see what 2019 has in store – will there be a seller panic that will cause a flood of inventory?  P.S. Of today’s 928 NSDCC houses for sale, 500 of them, or 54%, are priced over $2,000,000!

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Posted by on Nov 19, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

There are times when the general market is in a funk and homes aren’t selling – when it’s easy to think, “Oh this is it, we’re cooked”.

There are also times when the market erupts, and a series of homes that have been languishing for months and/or homes that appear overpriced go pending – which then triggers additional pendings nearby.

Our market is having one of those surges right now!

Not just a couple here and there – we have had dozens of NSDCC homes go pending in the last 10-14 days that have been listed for months, or priced so high you’d think they don’t have a chance.

You sure want to be on the market when that happens!

Richard and I both sold our listings featured here on Friday, and in my case, Tom’s house was the third one listed over $900,000 in South Oceanside to go pending in the last week!

Get Good Help!

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Posted by on Nov 5, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Market Surge, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Now that the media is trumpeting a slower housing market every day, you’d think there might be more sellers hitting the panic button and listing their house for sale this year, rather than wait for the Glut of 2019.

But this week, the number of new listings dropped 32%!  The count from the previous week was 101, but we only had 69 new listings in the past seven days.

The number of pendings is holding up too (+1 this week).

Let’s compare the exact time in question when things started feeling different towards the end of the selling season.

NSDCC Sales between Aug 1st and Oct 15:

Year
Number of Sales
Median LP
2014
588
$1,065,000
2015
637
$1,059,000
2016
676
$1,187,500
2017
652
$1,237,050
2018
598
$1,325,000

In 2014, mortgage rates had been coming down – from 4.43% in January to 4.04% in October – and the median sales price was 24% lower too.  Yet we had more sales in 2018!

By the Spring of 2019, you can bet that any talk of a year-end slowdown will be shrugged off and blamed on the holidays – and that next year’s pricing will be right back to (overly) optimistic.

Buyers – it won’t get better next year!

Get Good Help!

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Posted by on Oct 29, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Thinking of Selling? | 3 comments

Inventory 2018

Yesterday, Bill featured the C.A.R. release about September sales that included the president’s comment that buyers are ‘self-sidelining’ in anticipation of lower prices ahead.  White included his obligatory blame on the tax reform, which he was so adamantly against even though his case was based on faulty evidence – and it passed anyway.

Bill also included the chart above that showed inventory explosion in CA:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/10/california-california-housing-market.html

Let’s review our NSDCC stats to see how we are behaving:

Year
Total Listings YoY
Total Sales YoY
TL/TS Ratio
ACT Inventory Mid-Oct
2013
4,277
2,685
1.59
2014
4,108
2,289
1.79
1,091
2015
4,396
2,513
1.75
1,027
2016
4,520
2,469
1.83
987
2017
4,062
2,499
1.63
812
2018
4,163
2,283
1.82
1,013

Our current NSDCC inventory is 25% higher than last year, but it just highlights what a great year we had in 2017 – when the TL/TS ratio was similar to the full-tilt frenzy we had in 2013.

This year looks a lot like the more-normal years of 2014-2016, when the sledding was much tougher.  As long as our current stats are staying in-line with previous years, we should be fine.

Expect more of the same – buying and selling homes is going to be difficult.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Oct 23, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz | 3 comments

Inventory Watch

The total number of pendings went up 2% this week, and the number of closed sales for the first half of October (116) is higher than last year (114).

Statistically, the market is ‘fine’ up to the $1,600,000s.

The actives/pendings count for NSDCC listings priced under $1,650,000 is 355/183, or almost exactly the 2:1 ratio we use to describe a healthy market.

It may feel like a bit of a struggle now, but the distractions have just begun.  Halloween is next week!

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Posted by on Oct 22, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments