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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

Let’s compare today’s statistics to the fourth reading in April, 2018:

NSDCC Number of Active/Pending Listings

Price Range
2018 ACT
2018 PEND
2019 ACT
2019 PEND
0-$1.0M
59
96
94
78
$1.0M – $1.5M
162
117
201
117
$1.5M – $2.0M
149
78
145
72
$2.0M+
482
70
491
98
Totals
852
353
931
353

We have the identical number of pendings this year, in spite of a 9% increase in listings – and it’s the high-end that is carrying us, with 40% more pendings this year priced over $2,000,000!

The lower-end is surprising too, with nearly 60% more homes available for sale, yet fewer pendings.  Buyers can’t believe how little you get for almost a million dollars these days.

There is some overlap due to the value-range listings at the cutoffs.

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Posted by on Apr 22, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

It appears that buyers are being more patient in 2019 – the median days-on-market is 11 days slower this year:

NSDCC Detached-Homes Sales Between Jan 1 – Apr 10

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
2018
660
$1,310,112
17
2019
617
$1,293,691
28

I had three different couples at open house yesterday who told me that if their home would just sell, they’d be in position to buy!

Hopefully we’ll see a surge in the next 1-2 months now that Tiger won.  Speaking of Tiger, the San Diego Case-Shiller Index has risen 246% since he won his first Masters in April, 1997.

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Posted by on Apr 15, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Last year’s selling season was a little bumpy but was solid through May – and then dropped off once we got into summer and rates started rising.

The wait-and-see pattern kicked in as 2019 opened, but with rates having eased, we’re on our way now.

If mortgage rates will determine our fate, what can we expect for the rest of 2019?  It looks like we should see mortgage rates stay in the low-4% range for now.  The 30-year fixed rate is typically about 1.75% above the ten-year bond yields, which today is around 2.52%.

This is from the WSJ:

I’m going to guess that our pendings will peak again in May this year, but have a more gradual descent through the rest of 2019 than we had last year.

The relaxing of the average NSDCC list-pricing might help too:

NSDCC # of Actives / Avg. LP-per-sf

Week
$0-$1.0M
$1.0M-$1.5M
$1.5M-$2.0M
Feb 25
67/$494
175/$494
130/$670
Apr 8
91/$455
215/$512
139/$618

The MLS doesn’t support analyses once the counts get too high, so I don’t have any pricing for the Over-$2M category (but should be around $1,000/sf). The number of $2M+ actives has only grown from 453 on February 25 to 472 today. There are 98 pendings too!

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Posted by on Apr 8, 2019 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Our current stats are looking more and more like last year’s!

We had the exact same number of new listings this week (still no surge) as in 2018, and the total number of pendings is now only 4% behind.

Last week, Rob Dawg asked:

When does rising inventory start affecting the urgency mindset of potential buyers?

The number of NSDCC active listings is 13% higher than it was at this time last year, and almost half of the increase is in the Under-$1,000,000 category!

I think rates coming down will offset any other concerns, and we’ve become accustomed – and somewhat numb – to more listings piling up unsold.

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Posted by on Apr 1, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

How’s the market?

The surge continued this past week, with the current pendings count rising from 302 to 324, which is a 7% increase. Last year, the pendings topped off the previous week and then dropped for four weeks. With this current burst, the pendings count is only seven percent behind last year.

The battle lines are drawn right around the $2 million mark, with the number of actives priced over $2,000,000 being 19% higher than in early January.

But the Under-$2,000,000 market looks great:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

List Price Range
Actives
Pendings
Actives/Pendings Ratio
$2,000,000-
415
235
1.8
$2,000,000+
474
95
5.0

There probably isn’t much trickle up? But the 5.0 isn’t bad, and the 95 pendings is a 53% increase from a month ago!

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Posted by on Mar 25, 2019 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

Statistics can be quirky, or maybe St. Patrick’s Day is a real holiday?  The new listings dropped off 18% this week, just like in the 3rd week of March last year!

In 2018, the number of pendings hit a peak in the third week of March, and then dropped four consecutive weeks.  But it’s probably more a result from so many closings from the initial surge of activity following the Super Bowl.

The average LP/SF is hanging tight.  We are at, or near, 12-month highs in all categories, and I don’t expect any change. Sellers aren’t motivated enough to really drop their price, instead they will just wait.

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Posted by on Mar 18, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

The surge noted last week continued its hot streak, which should be expected as the selling season really gets rolling.  The total number of pendings increased 6%, and those over $2,000,000 increased 24%!

Glad to see the $2,000,000+ market having some life, with 462 active listings – or 54% of the total inventory of houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad.

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Even though it might feel warmer, we are still lagging behind last year:

Weekly Total Pendings

Week
2018
2019
% diff
Jan
244
217
-11%
Feb
262
233
-11%
Feb
280
255
-9%
Feb
295
263
-11%
Feb
318
261
-18%
Mar
328
267
-19%
Mar
339
284
-16%

What might contribute to buyers wanting to wait-and-see a bit longer is the lack of bidding wars.  Instead of having to deal with the messy multiple-offer situations, agents who get a hot listing just sell it off-market now.

Without bidding wars, we don’t have those disappointed losers who get more determined to grab the next one, and move quickly to pay whatever it takes.

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Posted by on Mar 11, 2019 in Actives/Pendings, Bidding Wars, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Benefit of Lower Mortgage Rates?

The pundits remind us regularly that mortgage rates are historically low, and this colorful graph shows it clearly.  But home buyers are frustrated because any benefit has been offset by today’s higher prices.

Year
Sales Price
Loan Amount
30Y Mortgage Rate
Mortgage Payment
1984
$431,250
$345,000
13%
$3,816
1990
$543,750
$435,000
10%
$3,817
2002
$717,500
$574,000
7%
$3,819
2019
$1,000,000
$800,000
4%
$3,819

Lower rates today enable buyers to afford a house that is 2.3x more expensive than in 1984 and still have the same monthly payment.  But home values have appreciated more – the December San Diego Case-Shiller Index is 4.6x higher.

It’s worse in the higher-end areas too.

Back in the day, we were selling the PB crackerboxes for $100,000 – $150,000.

Now look at the prices:

Posted by on Mar 6, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

Inventory Watch

We’ve had a mini-surge in listings over the last few days!  There will be a few more added to the MLS this week, but it looks like the total for the first two months of the year will wind up in the 760-785 range.

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 28 (as of March 4th):

2018: 783

2019: 760 

Padres’ Tickets Contest – Guesses Under 800:

740 – Doughboy

755 – Neil

777 – Bb

785 – Recordsclerk

799 – TominLaCosta

We wanted to gauge whether there was any panic setting in among sellers, judged by how many more were rushing their home onto the market early in the selling season.  If there would have been a surge of 5% to 10% more listings during the first two months of this year, it could have been a tipping point.

But as it turns out, we’ll be lucky to match last year’s total.

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Closed sales are better than expected:

NSDCC Closed Sales:

Year
January
February
Median SP YTD
Avg $$/sf YTD
2017
175
173
$1,222,000
$513/sf
2018
150
164
$1,294,005
$573/sf
2019
150
171
$1,275,000
$540/sf

(Updated March 11th)

The 2019 median list price and sales price were the same $1.275M!

But the NSDCC Pendings are stalling, and now 19% under last year’s total at this time, so I’ll stick with my -20% guess on sales. We got off to a hot start this year, but the enthusiasm is slowing – based on this:

Weekly Total Pendings

Week
2018
2019
% diff
Jan
244
217
-11%
Feb
262
233
-11%
Feb
280
255
-9%
Feb
295
263
-11%
Feb
318
261
-18%
Mar
328
267
-19%

The average list-price-per-square-foot of listings priced under $1,500,000 has been flat lately, and about the same as last year. But listings priced between $1,500,000 and $2,000,000 are averaging about 10% higher LP/$ than last year.

A sluggish selling season would probably end earlier than usual, but give us at least a couple of more months, please!

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Posted by on Mar 4, 2019 in Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

Thanks Rob Dawg for the gift!

Our contest for Padres tickets got more exciting this week due to Manny Mania!

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 20:

2018: 681

2019: 644 (-5%)

The two-month total last year was 783, so we’re on a pace to hit 741.  Doughboy guessed 740, but it came in after the guessing period ended.  If he wins, I’ll give tickets to him and the next closest guesser.

Others who guessed under 800:

755 – Neil

777 – Bb

785 – Recordsclerk

799 – TominLaCosta

We finally hit a statistical oddity that we’ve been flirting with for months.  The average list-price-per-sf of the Under-$1,000,000 category caught up with the next category, $1.0M to $1.5M.

Both are at $494/sf today!

There was another quirk also. The new listings AND the new pendings both dropped off over the past week, which is unusual for this time of year.  It must have been due to the rain?

The total number of pendings today is 18% behind last year.

Looking ahead to next month? It starts Friday!  We had 446 new listings in March of last year, which was 25% more than in February, 2018.

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Posted by on Feb 25, 2019 in Actives/Pendings, Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings | 1 comment