We’ve said that the low-end of each market has been hopping – look at the market for houses priced under $1,500,000 between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
The NSDCC Under-$1,500,000 Market
Active listings: 135 Pending listings: 128
The actives-to-pendings ratio of nearly 1:1 is impressive. The higher-end market is moving too – having this many pendings as we are coming into the selling season looks like a good start:
The NSDCC Over-$1,500,000 Market
Active listings: 460 Pending listings: 86
Most of the people who came to the open house on Saturday were just beginning their search. I think it’s going to be a good year!
We’ve already had 89 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad this year, which at first glance makes you think that 2018 might be the year that inventory cuts loose! But agents are notorious for ‘re-freshing’ their listings for the new year, and indeed 47% of the new listings were on the market towards the end of last year.
One of the listings had been on the market since August, and it ‘expired’ on December 31st. The same agent re-lists it the next day, and the fresh ‘new’ listing goes pending within two days – with no change in price. Nobody wanted it for five months, and then boom!
It is a widespread practice, and you must check every new listing, by every agent, in every town, to make sure you don’t get duped.
With the start of the new year, I’ve changed the price categories so the lower-end market has sufficient sample sizes, and I’ve also included the number of pending listings too.
We begin 2018 with:
542 active listings, median list price of $2,500,000, and
215 pending listings, median list price of $1,395,000.
There will be some overlap due to Sandicor presenting duplicate listings from two MLS systems, and with houses listed on a value-range. But we’re just looking at the trends over time, so it should all work out.
Happy New Year!
There are other variables, but the amount and quality of the inventory will determine our fate in 2018. Even with our Sandicor MLS logging duplicate listings, our count of houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad dropped about 10% this year!
It wouldn’t matter if we cut back on the number of higher-end listings – there would still be plenty to go around. Where did the shortage happen this year?
||# of Listings Under $1M
||# of Listings Over $2M
||Total # of Listings
The number of high-enders were remarkably about the same as last year – the shortage this year was almost entirely on the lower end.
Today, there are only 41 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000. There will be more, but I think we can expect the number of sellers willing to take less than a million to drop even further in 2018 – less than 1,000 for sure, and possibly as low as 700-800 listings.
There were 882 NSDCC houses sold this year under $1,000,000 (so far). We could still have close to that many sell again in 2018 if the frenzy picks up on the cheapies and virtually every listing sells.
We’ll talk houses tomorrow – from my family to yours, Merry Christmas!
Last year at this time, we had thirty houses for sale priced under $800,000 – today we have TWO! Here they are:
This just sold for $660,000 in March – backs to I-5 freeway:
And the old dental office right off the freeway, zoned commercial:
Buyers are still in the game – look at the weekly new pendings, compared to the new listings since Thanksgiving:
There are only 35 NSDCC houses for sale priced under $1,000,000 today, and 394 priced over $2,000,000!
In an area of 300,000+ people, we only have TEN houses for sale priced under $800,000 – and there are only 118 priced between $800,000 and $1,400,000!
Is it greed, or just supply and demand? It would take something to disrupt the market to find out. Buyers are already wondering about tax reform, and this could be a hurdle too – the Trump/Mueller saga. Protests are already being planned:
There are 343 houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad listed above $2,400,000, and only 25 sold in November – nearly 14 months of inventory! The tax reform won’t do much for those sellers – more coming today on who might be affected.
A quiet Thanksgiving week – I hope you had a great one!
We only had 23 new listings this week, but we had 37 new pendings!
In an interesting note in the Under-$800,000 category.
Three weeks ago we had 21 listings left, with an average days-on-market of 38 days. Today we’re down to just 16 listings priced under $800,000, but those are averaging 62 days on market – a 63% increase, in spite of the average list price-per-sf being down 10% in the same period!
The other three categories have a slightly higher market time too – buyers sense that they can be more selective this time of year.
Last week: We should see a bit of a surge this week before more people shut it down for the holidays!
We did see a bump in new pendings this week – there were 46 new listings, and 60 new pendings! The week before Thanksgiving and the last week of the year typically have more new pendings than listings – buyers are always looking!