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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

2016-11-23-14-23-48

We had 86 new listings this week, which is close to double the norm for the first week of December.  But there were a bunch of listings that expired – the net gain was only +15 after the 47 new pendings.

There were actually 9% fewer cancelled, expired, and withdrawn listings between Nov. 1st and Dec. 1st this year, compared to 2015.  Hopefully it means more sellers see the benefit of being on the market when there is less competition?

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Dec 5, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-11-25-16-52-33

The Inventory Watch started the last week of November in 2013.

Here is how the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad market has fared:

Last Week of November

Under $800,000
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
2014
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
2015
70
$400/sf
57
1,974sf
2016
31
$411/sf
37
1,851sf
$800,000 – $1.4M
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
2014
256
$431/sf
69
2,948sf
2015
210
$444/sf
64
2,801sf
2016
207
$439/sf
59
2,879sf
$1.40M – $2.40M
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
227
$580/sf
81
3,692sf
2014
234
$583/sf
97
3,687sf
2015
225
$595/sf
91
3,626sf
2016
235
$595/sf
86
3,587sf

Once you get over $1,000,000, it’s been steady/flat.

But look how the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category has dropped in numbers, just like the Under-$800,000 range has done.  Fewer and fewer people are willing to sell for less.

The inventory over $2,400,000 has risen from 340 active listings in November, 2013 to 415 houses for sale today, which is a 22% increase.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Nov 28, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

sp2

The NSDCC new pendings rebounded nicely this week, with 52 houses opening escrow, which is about the weekly average for the last couple of Novembers.

It’s not too late to buy an expensive home this year, and there are still plenty to consider.  There have been 452 houses sold that have closed over $2,000,000 this year between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and there are 489 currently for sale – about a year’s supply!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Nov 21, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-11-05-16-50-45

This is the chart first displayed on November 1st, with this version showing the updated count for last month’s closings per day. As you can see, we are coming off a scorching October around NSDCC – almost as hot as 2012, which led to the Frenzy of 2013:

Year
October Closings Per Day
November Closings Per Day
2012
12.9
12.7
2013
11.6
10.4
2014
10.6
10.1
2015
9.8
10.7
2016
12.3
???

It sure felt frenzy-like over on Bluff Ct., this weekend, with hundreds of visitors.  We’re up to nine offers currently, and the price is over $800,000 (list was $749,000).

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Nov 7, 2016 in Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-10-28-13-36-51

The market has been great lately, with virtually no let up in demand in spite of higher prices and November starting tomorrow.  Here is how this October stacks up to the last few years, based on the readings for the closest five weeks:

Year
October New Listings
October New Pendings
2013
355
297
2014
336
271
2015
352
262
2016
383
279

We are benefiting from the fine balance of slightly-higher inventory (+9% Y-o-Y) getting gobbled up, without spooking the buyers!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Oct 31, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

la

If you are looking to buy a NSDCC house for less than $800,000, I have bad news for you – there are only 38 left for sale, which is the lowest number since we started tracking three years ago.  Last year at this time there were 87 for sale!

It won’t get better anytime soon either, and maybe never.

The last couple of years we have seen list prices jump 5% to 10% going into the spring selling season due to seller exuberance and lack of comps.  While there will likely be some market-stall initially, we won’t know for sure until May or June if buyers are willing to stage a full protest and stop buying.  By then, those on the lowest-ends of each market will rush in and grab something, and $800,000-and-under homes around NSDCC will evaporate.

P.S. If there is ever any major Sandicor bombshell news, you can bet I’ll have some thoughts on it!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Oct 24, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-10-15-14-37-24

We rebounded from last week’s 46 new pendings – we had 60 this week!

I want to go back to my last prediction too.

I thought I said that September was hot enough that we would have more sales than August, but my actual guess was that we would beat last September – and we did! (246 sales this September vs 210 last September).

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Oct 17, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

k

The hot streak has finally been broken – only 46 new pendings this week, after averaging 67 per week over the last 12 weeks!

Thus, as buyers take their foot off the gas, we begin a 4-month slogfest where only the motivated sellers will surrender to what the market will bear.  They will still sell for record pricing, if their ego will only let go of that last 2% to 4%!

I saw one this weekend where the seller had an offer that would net him about $500,000 over what he paid, but it wasn’t enough – he wanted another $25,000!

Here is how we compare to previous years:

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Oct 10, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Rates Creep Higher

oct-7-rates

Buyers looking for any reason not to buy will enjoy this news:

Mortgage Rates were modestly higher on Friday, despite a weaker-than-expected Employment Situation (aka NFP, nonfarm payrolls, or simply “the jobs report”).

NFP is the most important number on any given month in terms of market-moving economic data.  When NFP is lower than expected, rates tend to move lower.  Even though today’s NFP didn’t fall too terribly short of forecasts, rates nonetheless made a counterintuitive move higher, confirming the generally pessimistic attitude in the bond market at the moment.

The modest increase in rates means we continue to operate at the highest levels in more than 3 months.  Most lenders than had been quoting 3.375% on conventional 30yr fixed scenarios are now up to 3.5%.  Many have moved up from 3.5 to 3.625%.

While there are some early signs that a ceiling could be forming, it doesn’t make much sense to float in this environment.  That will continue to be the case until we see either a big push back toward lower rates, or an extended period (5-10 days at least) of stability at current levels.

Read full article here:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/666681.aspx

Posted by on Oct 8, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

ws

It’s not just the weather that’s hot – another 69 new pendings this week!

Here is how we compare to previous years:

Number of New Pendings, Last Five Weeks

Year
New Pendings, Last Five Weeks
2013
314
2014
260
2015
264
2016
333

An increase of 26% over last year – and we are at record prices!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Oct 3, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments