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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

Our contest for Padres tickets got a little tighter this week:

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 15:

2018: 620

2019: 607

There should be a few more added this week to the 2019 count, so it’s about even?  The total pendings count is 11% behind last year at this time, which confirms the slower start we expected in 2019.

But maybe an increasing inventory could spur more sales in the coming weeks?

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Meanwhile, the Padres themselves are hoping to make a splash:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-padres-have-reportedly-offered-manny-machado-an-eight-year-deal-worth-at-least-240-million/

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Posted by on Feb 18, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

New listings stayed in check this week, with only 83 properties coming to market. With so many being re-lists, buyers are probably underwhelmed so far – but that’s not stopping them.  The NSDCC pendings are hopping!

While we would expect increased activity this time of year, the 18% increase in pendings over the last two weeks is better than the 15% we had in 2018.

Interestingly, the price category where we thought we might have the most trouble due to the reduced MID is actually the hottest right now. The count of pendings priced between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000 has gone up 40% over the last two weeks!

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Posted by on Feb 11, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

For the Padres-tickets contest, we are counting the number of new listings between January 1st and February 28th to help us identify if more sellers are listing earlier in the season.  If so, it could cause some panic in the air – and if not, it will be business as usual for 2019.

Last year we had 425 listings in January, and 357 in February.

This year we’ve had 404 listings in January, so if it goes the same way it did last year, we’ll end up with less than 800 listings, and put us in the no-panic zone.

If we have the same number of February listings as last year, the combined count will be the lowest on this chart:

NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb

Year
Jan+Feb Listings
Median List Price
Median DOM
2012
794
$954,500
88
2013
785
$1,130,000
37
2014
802
$1,295,000
42
2015
821
$1,345,000
37
2016
917
$1,489,900
46
2017
787
$1,499,876
38
2018
782
$1,599,000
35
2019
404 in Jan
$1,683,500
35

We’re 5% under last year’s listing count, and the median list price is +5% higher.

Currently there are 72 NSDCC houses listed under $1,000,000.  But half of those are priced above $900,000, and a quarter of them above $975,000!

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Posted by on Feb 4, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch


We have been having a surge in the market – the total pendings count went up a net 11% this week!  The new-listings count slowed down too – see below (it was almost tied last week).

The inventory change was almost all on the low-end. There are 14 fewer active listings today, and 15 more pendings.  In the area between La Jolla and Carlsbad, there are roughly 300,000 people, and today we only have 68 houses for sale listed under $1,000,000 – and NO houses under $665,000.

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Have you joined the contest yet? Click here to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Jan 22:

2016: 365

2017: 284

2018: 317

2019: 282

This will be the last week to enter the contest, or to revise your guess!

The 2019 total-listings count fell behind lately, which means potential sellers are in no rush to get their house on the market.  Unless it was painfully obvious to them that the market is under siege (there’s no sign of that), then the list prices are going to hold – or possibly rise in the coming months.  Three of the four inventory groups below have substantially higher list-price-per-sf than they did at this time a year ago!

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Posted by on Jan 28, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We saw the local SD Case-Shiller broken down into pricing tiers for the whole county, marking what the buyers are paying for same-house sales.

To gauge the sellers’ expectations, here’s the trend for list prices of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad over the last 50 weeks:

Expectations are at their 50-week highs, and we’re just getting started!

Sellers aren’t going to adjust until there has been solid proof for months or years that their price is wrong. Would you?

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Are you coming off vacation and getting back in the swing? Click here to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Jan 15:

2018: 214

2019: 208

There should be a few late-reporters that pull us up to about even with 2018!

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Posted by on Jan 21, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

A few general observations as the 2019 market continues to liftoff.

  1. At the Inventory Watch, we are measuring the active listings, which are the unsold listings – so we are measuring what isn’t working, at least not yet.  In the past, it was just a matter of time before the rising market came up enough to meet every seller and their price, but now we’re not as confident about when that might happen. It may take a lot longer before pricing rises substantially, and we could plateau for years to come.
  2. Rising inventory gives buyers more confidence that waiting longer will produce better results.  It used to happen like that when banks were selling REOs for whatever the market would bear, but now that those days are over.  Will there be sellers who want/need to sell for whatever the market will bear, or will they wait? (which would create a glut of unsold listings)
  3. Markets will vary. You can see in Bill’s graph above that inventory behaves differently, and it’s really an indicator of how much sellers and listing agents are holding out on price.  Our current inventory is +24% year-over-year, which is mellow given our higher price point compared to those in the graph.

Are you coming off vacation and getting back in the swing? Click here to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

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Posted by on Jan 14, 2019 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

It was suggested that we change the price categories again, and the start of the new year would be a good time to do it.

But I’m going to leave them be, for two reasons: A) Pricing, and the market in general, has stalled – literally we have twice as many NSDCC active listings priced under $1M today as we did a year ago (72 vs. 36), and B) I want to compare apples and apples to 2018 throughout the year.

If you took an extended vacation and are just getting back in the swing, scroll back a few posts (or click here) to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

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Posted by on Jan 7, 2019 in Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

Padres Contest

Big Papi’s last game in SD

Would you like some guidance on what to expect in the Spring Selling Season?

Let’s monitor how many new NSDCC listings are hitting the market!

If the negative media hype is starting to worry sellers, they will hurry up and list their home early.  If we see a surge of new listings in the first two months of the year, it means a buyers’ market is forming.

If we have about the same or fewer listings in early 2019, then sellers will just shrug off any concerns and wait their turn.

Here are the counts of listings inputted onto the MLS in January and February from the last few years:

NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb

Year
Jan+Feb Listings
Median List Price
Median DOM
2012
794
$954,500
88
2013
785
$1,130,000
37
2014
802
$1,295,000
42
2015
821
$1,345,000
37
2016
917
$1,489,900
46
2017
787
$1,499,876
38
2018
782
$1,599,000
35

The average is 813 listings, and with the last two years both being lower, it would take a significant YoY increase to worry most participants. But at least we’ll know first!

Put your guess in the comment section of how many new listings we’ll have in January and February, and on March 15th we’ll see who is closest.

The winner will get four tickets to a Padres game! The photos here were taken from the seats, and I’ll have about ten dates available.

Larry Baer, CEO of the SF Giants

Posted by on Jan 2, 2019 in Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 29 comments

Inventory Watch

Did you feel that mini-surge we had this week?  It wasn’t much, but a handful of older, higher-priced listings went pending just a few days before Christmas.  There is going to be activity!

Another quirky event happened this week.

The MLS doesn’t allow the CMA-Summary calculations once the number of listings get into the mid-400s (though it could just be me). We have 443 NSDCC houses listed over $2,000,000 today, which is low enough that we got our first look since March at the asking-price-per-sf.

The list prices of homes listed over $2,000,000 are averaging $1,038/sf, which is the highest of the year – and the other three categories are all around their highs for the year too!

Like Mark Wahlberg said in Mile 22, “Your ego is not your amigo”.

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Posted by on Dec 24, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments