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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

Another strong week of new listings (115) but the new pendings (63) didn’t follow along – instead they dropped 20% from the previous week.  As we roll into the Memorial Day weekend, graduation season, and 5% mortgage rates, we might be seeing the peak of the market for 2018.

The higher-end market has been sluggish all along, and now the lower-end inventory is starting to show a bit of a plateau over the last couple of months:

Week
# of Actives Under-$1M
Avg. LP/SF
# of Actives $1M-$1.5M
Avg. LP/SF
Mar 26
61
$477/sf
133
$484/sf
May 21
81
$474/sf
184
$475/sf

Don’t worry sellers – price will fix everything!

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Posted by on May 21, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

The new-listings count cooled off this week – only 99 vs. 138 last week – but the total number of houses in escrow jumped 9%!  Rising rates are probably playing a role in the decision-making by buyers, and the expectation of another Fed move is likely to keep the housing market hopping:

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise short-term interest rates at its June policy meeting and will likely follow up with another increase in September, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Among professional forecasters surveyed in recent days, 98% predicted the Fed’s next rate increase will come at its June 12-13 meeting, with the average probability of a move then pegged at 85%.

We know that mortgage rates aren’t tied to the Fed rate, but buyers are already jittery about prices – the thought of potentially-higher mortgage rates should keep them very active!

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Posted by on May 14, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We had 138 new listings this week – the highest weekly total in four years!

The month of May tends to be the biggest month of the year for new listings, so buyers can expect plenty of new choices in the coming weeks.

Pricing of the active listings has been fairly steady this year:

Price Range
Avg LP/sf on Jan 1
Avg LP/sf on May 7
Under-$1M
$477/sf
$472/sf
$1M-$1.5M
$532/sf
$495/sf
$1.5M-$2.0M
$612/sf
$618/sf

The MLS stops calculating the data once the listing counts get into the high-400’s. The Over-$2M market has 486 active listings today!

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Posted by on May 7, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Inventory, Jan – Apr

We keep hearing how tight the inventory has been, but it is relative to price.  The Above-$1M market has had a fairly consistent supply – it’s the lower-end inventory count that has been dropping steadily:

NSDCC New Listings Between Jan 1 – April 30th

Year # Listings Below $1M # Listings Above $1M Percentage Above $1M
2014
659
1,087
62%
2015
625
1,179
65%
2016
545
1,428
72%
2017
452
1,324
75%
2018
311
1,359
81%

Now that we’ve come this far, sellers will be reluctant to go back!

Posted by on May 2, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 2 comments

Inventory Watch

The numbers of pendings is dropping, and we’re behind recent years when looking at the number of new pendings for the last week of March and first three weeks of April:

NSDCC Last Four Weeks

Year
Total Number of New Listings
Total Number of New Pendings
2015
365
277
2016
400
292
2017
381
282
2018
390
233

You can’t blame it on the lack of inventory – we’re having just as many listings to consider as we’ve had in recent years. But the new-pending count is 18% below the average for the last three years. Price will fix everything wrong here!

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Posted by on Apr 16, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 3 comments

Inventory Watch

Last week we noted:

The new pendings this year are about 10% below the last couple of years, and the explanation you see in the media points to the lack of inventory.

But we’re having about the same number of listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, they are just high-enders – the median LP currently is $2,495,000.

This is the first year that I’ve tracked the overall pendings count each week, so I’m not sure what to expect.  But with the new pendings down about 10% from last year, and the overall pendings count dropping the last two weeks, it seems the market is a bit soft.

It could be a result of more closings than pendings, but you’d think the new pendings would be rising in early April as the selling season hits its stride.

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Posted by on Apr 9, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Here are the new actives and pendings for the last six weeks, and how they compare to previous years:

Week
2015 A/P
2016 A/P
2017 A/P
2018 A/P
Feb
83/64
80/72
66/73
87/57
Mar
99/68
123/52
102/66
84/62
Mar
93/76
101/75
99/59
107/67
Mar
101/84
90/75
93/82
88/59
Mar
89/81
94/64
82/60
99/55
Apr
80/58
112/72
104/70
87/66
Totals
545/431
600/410
546/410
552/366

The new pendings this year are about 10% below the last couple of years, and the common explanation you see in the media points to the lack of inventory.

But we’re having about the same number of listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, they are just high-enders – the median LP currently is $2,495,000.

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Posted by on Apr 2, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 0 comments

Downsizing Within California

Another reason why the 2018 inventory might stay tight – seniors waiting until this thing passes to downsize. Currently, the counties of Alameda, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, Santa Clara, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Tuolumne, and Ventura already permit such transfers, so the additional benefit would be for those who are moving to the other 47 counties.

My fellow REALTORS®,

I have great news to share! This week, C.A.R.’s Homeownership for Families and Tax Savings for Seniors Committee submitted nearly one million signatures to county elections officials throughout California. This will qualify the Property Tax Fairness Initiative (Portability) for the November 6, 2018, General Election ballot. We are one step closer to ensuring that seniors, the disabled and disaster victims can move freely throughout California without facing an unfair “moving penalty.”

This significant milestone illustrates the strength of our REALTOR® Party, demonstrating vision, leadership, and our grass roots campaign to improve housing opportunities for all Californians. Fixing California’s property tax system is critical to people across California and our state as a whole.

As champions for homeownership, REALTORS® face challenges with California’s property tax laws. You probably know a senior citizen who lives in a home that no longer fits their needs, but cannot afford to move and faces a massive property tax “moving penalty.” Our brothers, sisters, parents and grandparents shouldn’t be barred from downsizing or relocating to be closer to family because they cannot afford the property tax increase.

Similarly, severely disabled people may live in homes that are no longer safe or practical for them. Buying a more suitable home is often impossible because they face significant property tax increases when they move, even if they move to a less expensive home. Finally, disaster victims like those affected by the massive northern California wildfires and Santa Barbara mudslides have arbitrary and limited protections. Disaster victims, too, face a moving penalty if they choose to move outside of their disaster-torn county.

Passing the Property Tax Fairness Initiative reforms what is a confusing and inconsistent approach to property taxation. Senior homeowners can keep their existing tax base when they move, but only one time and only when moving to a home of equal or lower price within their current county of residence, or in 11 counties that allow an exemption. Moving to a high cost part of California is nearly impossible, regardless of circumstance. C.A.R.’s initiative fixes these issues so these homeowners can move throughout California and adjusts their property taxes up if their new home is more expensive. It allows people to move more than once, as circumstances may require. In short, it is the right thing to do for people who are already paying their fair share in property taxes.

Nobody should be penalized due to their life circumstances. That’s not right. Not in California.

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Posted by on Mar 26, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Realtor | 8 comments