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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

2016-09-13 13.39.48

As September wraps up, both buyers and sellers are wondering if they should pack it in for 2016. A logical question would be, “How does today’s market compare to the ‘selling season’ this year”?

During the 13 weeks of March, April, and May, we averaged 72 new pendings per week. For July, August, and September, we averaged 64 new pendings per week – including 68 this week and 69 last week!

Not much difference!

And that’s in spite of the fact that we hit the highest average list-price-per-sf of the year in all categories this week!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Sep 26, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 3 comments

Effects of Prop 13 on Selling Your Home

The low-inventory conditions have several contributing factors, one of which is the Prop 13 cap on property taxes.  The long-time owners sure don’t want to pay what would be much-higher taxes if they move up, thus the turnover has slowed considerably:

fig1

Moving down, price-wise, to keep your old tax basis isn’t easy either.  Though this graph shows that twice as many people would move if they could take their tax benefits with them, it’s not enough to get older people to sell.  By the time you are 65, the chance of you selling is less than 4%, and that’s with the tax benefits transferring:

fig2

Move before you get old!

Here is the big concern – how many younger folks are coming up that are ready, willing, and able to buy your house for what you think it is worth today?

Your house comes with a stifling property-tax bill, and fewer are going for it:

fig3

The residual effects of prop 13, combined with the high federal and state income taxes paid on the profit above $500,000 will cause fewer and fewer long-timers to want to sell.  Eventually, it means the inventory will be stocked with estate sales and sellers who NEED to sell.

The full report on Prop 13 is here:

http://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3497

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Posted by on Sep 19, 2016 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 12 comments

Inventory Watch

sp1

The inventory dropped across the board this week, but it still feels bloated – the decline was only 1.7%, leaving 1,072 houses for sale.

Anyone who has their house priced on the higher-end and has been trying to sell for months should cancel and wait until next year so we can focus on the sellers who want and need to sell for what the market will bear.

At least then we would have some certainty about market value – with hundreds of listings lying around not selling, we really don’t know anything except what they aren’t worth.

(There are 523 NSDCC active listings priced above $2,000,000, and 45 have sold in the last 30 days).

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Sep 19, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

We are hearing the same hesitations from buyers that we heard last year, and it’s probably a seasonal thing – people wonder if there will be turbulence during the real estate off-season.

Under-$800K
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Sept. 14, 2015
94
$398/sf
38
1,979sf
Sept. 12, 2016
63
$408/sf
36
1,903sf
$800,000-$1.4M
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Sept. 14, 2015
286
$413/sf
58
2,886sf
Sept. 12, 2016
277
$438/sf
51
2,891sf
$1.4M – $2.4M
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Sept. 14, 2015
274
$562/sf
82
3,785sf
Sept. 12, 2016
306
$598/sf
74
3,554sf
Over $2.4M
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
Sept. 14, 2015
414
$0/sf
126
0sf
Sept. 12, 2016
445
$0/sf
128
0sf

Sandicor stops publishing the full data set once the count goes over 400.

The data looks similar enough to last year, that we should expect a similar result – no market tanking in the off-season, just an occasional seller who lets one go cheap.

If prices did roll back 5% to 10%, would anyone notice? They’d still be record territory, and unattainable for most.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Sep 12, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

spa

There were 75 new pendings in the past week, which is the highest amount since the end of May!  No surprise that the action was concentrated on the lower-end, but the Over-$2,000,000 market isn’t dead:

Last Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Under-$2,000,000
56
64
Over-$2,000,000
20
11

We are still lagging behind the strong sales counts of 2015. Last August we closed 235 sales, and this month there has been 168 closings with three days to go plus late-reporters.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 29, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-08-20 15.43.32

There has been more hubbub about the market changing, but around San Diego, the stats look solid and remarkably similar to previous years.  Our NSDCC new pendings are staying in a tight range – in the 60s for the last six weeks straight, and generally the inventory is in check – no explosions.

Rich’s additional qualifier of dividing the inventory by the number of sales to determine the “months’ of resale inventory” here helps to show how sales are holding up too:

richt

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 22, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

spn

The new listings coming to market finally saw some seasonal slowing this week, dropping from 103 in the previous week to just 77 new listings over the last seven days.  The new pendings increased from 63 to 65!

Last year at this time it didn’t slow down much though.  Between mid-August and mid-September of 2015, the active inventory only dropped 2%.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 15, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

span

For those who saw the July stats and wanted a deeper look, here is a three-month comparison that wraps up the spring selling season:

NSDCC Sales, May-July

Year
# of May-July Sales
Median Sales Price
2011
725
$840,000
2012
886
$850,000
2013
992
$960,187
2014
862
$1,011,500
2015
936
$1,086,250
2016
872
$1,199,990

In spite of the median sales price increasing 10% year-over-year, sales have been hanging tough in 2016.  Will it keep going with distractions like the Olympics, our political circus, and school starting?

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 8, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

rom

It appears that our inventory has peaked for the year – all four categories declined this week.

The cost-per-sf of the Under-$800,000 actives has been over $400/sf for ten weeks straight.  Today we hit a record = $423/sf, which is almost as much as the next category up (average $426/sf for active listings priced between $800,000 and $1,400,000).

But the average cost-per-sf in the three higher categories has remained about the same since we started two years ago – or a little lower.

In the last 90 days, 702 sales have closed under $2,000,000 between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and their average days-on-market was 31 days (the median DOM was 17 days!).  If your DOM is triple digits and you don’t feel like lowering your price, you might as well hang it up for the year.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 1, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments