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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.16.51

Two records set today:

The lowest count of NSDCC active listings priced at $800,000 and Under: 26

The highest count of NSDCC active listings priced at $2.4M and Over: 451

Using the number of closed sales in the last 30 days, let’s calculate the months of supply for each:

$800,000 and Under: 26/57 = 0.5-month supply.

$2.4M and Over: 451/29 = 15.6-month supply.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 25, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.22.42

We’re on the lookout for any sudden explosion of inventory, because the minute buyers sense a flood, they will probably back off.

But no surge yet – these are the number of NSDCC detached-home new listings that hit the market between April 1-15:

Year
Under-$1,400,000
Over-$1,400,000
Total
2013
162
117
279
2014
144
109
253
2015
136
98
234
2016
125
118
243

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 18, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.17.42

Comparing the number of active listings in each price category helps to demonstrate the extreme conditions at each end of the market. The low-end only has an occasional offering now, where the high-end has more choices than most buyers can comprehend:

NSDCC Number of Active Listings in Mid-April

Price Category
2014
2015
2016
0-$800,000
97
65
37
$800K – $1.4M
233
220
235
$1.4M – $2.4M
233
218
260
$2,400,000+
349
346
447

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 11, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-03-30 13.13.29

The active (unsold) inventory is virtually non-existent under $800,000 (down to just 34 houses for sale) but rising steadily in the higher-priced categories.  Sales are down about 12% this year, compared to 1Q15:

Price Range
Actives
Pendings
1Q2016 Solds
1Q2015 Solds
0-$800,000
34
94
117
156
$800,000-$1.4M
220
175
254
263
$1.4M-$2.4M
272
116
118
136
$2,400,000+
435
58
59
81
Totals
961
443
558
636

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 4, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The NAR pending index for February was released today, and it was modestly positive. In the West, it was the best non-seasonally-adjusted number since October. But who cares – April starts on Friday!

Yunnie did have a great quote though:

“Any further moderation in prices would be a welcome development this spring,” adds Yun. “Particularly in the West, where it appears a segment of would-be buyers are becoming wary of high asking prices and stiff competition.”

New NSDCC pendings were down 15% this week, but the market can wane a bit around spring break.  Or does it?  More on that later today!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 28, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Coachella Valley Real Estate

2014-04-11 22.15.30

More in our series of how real estate markets are faring around the world.  I chose this report because of the realtor quote that the market is ‘in a bit of a slump’, resulting from a 15% shift in demand?  Markets could be that sensitive!

Our market doesn’t seem to be having any price declines or ‘slump’, but our NSDCC inventory priced above $1,400,000 is up 26% year-over-year, like mentioned below. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/26/low-loonie-california-rea_n_9551794.html

PALM SPRINGS, Calif. — Canadians are no longer flocking to California’s sunny Coachella Valley to buy homes since their currency has weakened, and many are putting properties they own up for sale, real estate experts said.

The move coincides with a decline in the Canadian dollar since oil prices have plummeted, the Desert Sun newspaper reported on Saturday.

After the U.S. housing market crashed in 2007, the Canadian dollar achieved parity with the U.S. dollar, prompting many Canadians to swoop up properties in the region.

Even as the U.S. economy recovered, Canadians still made up at least 15 per cent of homebuyers in California’s Coachella Valley, said David Emerson, a local real estate agent.

Now, home prices have fallen in the region, and the number of homes for sale has jumped. Inventory rose by about 25 per cent over the last year, according to the California Desert Association of Realtors.

“Our Canadian buyers are not buying,” Kelly Trembley, a realtor with Bennion Deville Homes, told the newspaper. “This was the perfect storm for the desert, and that’s why our real estate right now is in a bit of a slump.”

Brian and Linda Pahl — who live in Vancouver — bought a three-bedroom home in La Quinta more than two years ago for $450,000. Now the couple hopes to sell it for $725,000.

If the Canadian dollar strengthens down the road, however, Brian Pahl said he hasn’t ruled out another purchase.

“With the Canadian dollar being as low as it is, it pays to sell the home and pay the capital gains (tax),” he said. “We can buy again in two years.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/26/low-loonie-california-rea_n_9551794.html#slide=start

Posted by on Mar 27, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-03-06 15.28.30

Holy Cow – we are down to just 37 houses for sale under $800,000!

Here are the active and pending listings currently between La Jolla and Carlsbad – have we ever had such hot and cold market conditions existing at the same time?

Price Range
# of Active Listings
# of Pending Listings
Under $800,000
37
98
$800K – $1.4M
207
164
$1.4M – $2.4M
261
103
Over $2.4M
424
55

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 21, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Mix of New Listings

2016-03-16 22.16.57

The new-listing totals for the early spring season have been virtually identical over the last five years.

But the mix has changed dramatically – in 2012, 60% of the listings were under $1,000,000, and this year it’s only 35%:

NSDCC New Listings between Feb. 1st – Mar 15th

Year
New Listings Under $1M
Between $1M – $2M
Over $2M
Totals
2012
341
190
39
570
2013
293
202
60
555
2014
230
238
64
532
2015
216
266
64
546
2016
190
286
74
550

If this was going to be the year that the inventory cut loose, we would have been seeing more signs of it by now. For a variety of reasons, people would rather stay put, than cash in!

Posted by on Mar 17, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 1 comment

Impact of Downsizing Trend

Yesterday we noted how the high-end market is brimming with more inventory.

Having 424 active listings priced over $2,400,000 this early in the season is quite a load – it’s more of a late-summer type of number.  Could the sluggishness have an impact on the markets priced below?

Probably not – it is the tale of two markets, and they can co-exist.

The underlying problem is that downsizing is the trend, leaving the high-end sellers competing for the scant few buyers.

There were only 17 sales last month of NSDCC homes priced over $2,400,000.  Only four of those were in Rancho Santa Fe, where today there are 166 active listings over $2.4 million.

Of the NSDCC houses sold in February, only 12% were over $2,400,000.

Today, 47% of the active inventory is priced over $2,400,000!

Thankfully, the high-enders are a group that can probably endure.  If they really needed to sell and had to lop off $1,000,000 to get out, they’d survive.  It’s what they would have gotten 3-4 years ago.

What would be really exciting is if the high-end market did catch fire, and add more downsizing buyers to the demand below.  I’ve received six written offers on the Salisbury listing – all from owner-occupiers – and it’s gone over list price!

Maybe the lower-end markets can stay hot, and prices rise faster to assist more move-ups!  One way or another, we should have an orderly shuffle to the exits.

Posted by on Mar 15, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2012-09-07 10.44.20

We had 75 new pendings this past week, the most since early June – the season is on!  Only 6 of those new pendings were listed over $2,400,000 and there are still 424 active listings at that price point and higher.

The number of active listings priced over $2.4M has increased 27% in the last eight weeks, and their average list price-per-sf has dropped 11% in the same time frame!

Last year in that category, the number of listings increased only 14%, and average list prices went up 4%.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 14, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments