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Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

How Bleak?

Those in the hunt for a house have noticed how tough the inventory has been.  How bad is it?

If you don’t mind spending $2,000,000 or more, there are plenty of choices – in fact, there are 344 NSDCC houses for sale listed at or above $2,000,000.

It’s the lower ranges that are really suffering.

Here are the counts of houses listed for sale at or under $1,000,000:

City or Area
Houses For Sale Under $1,000,000
Avg. LP-per-sf
Carlsbad
107
$341/sf
Carmel Valley
12
$414/sf
Encinitas
11
$404/sf
La Jolla
6
$635/sf
Del Mar
5
$584/sf
Solana Beach
4
$661/sf
Cardiff
2
$496/sf
RSF
0
0
Total
147
$396/sf

For an area with a population of 300,000, that’s not much meat on the bone!  The only choices for buyers are uncomfortable too:

1. Figure out how to go higher in price.

2. Consider fixers or condos.

3. Go further out.

4. Wait, and hope it gets better.

December is the slow month for new listings.  The last two Januarys have had the 5th and 6th highest new-listing counts of the year.  Here is how we stack up to previous years:

January New Listings

2011: 515

2012: 409

2013: 410

2014: 413

2015: 230 (so far)

When is the best time to sell? When everyone else isn’t!

Posted by on Jan 20, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 4 comments

Inventory Watch – No Flood

Two weeks ago we had 700 NSDCC houses for sale, and today there are 720. It would appear that new listings are just trickling in, and/or the new listings are going pending as soon as they hit the market.

But actually it is neither – instead, 81% of the 94 new pendings in that period are those experienced listings who get smarter about price as they go.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 19, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 10 comments

Inventory Watch – Relists

There have been 116 new listings of NSDCC houses this year. As expected, 61 of those were on the market last year (53%), and that’s not counting the sellers who listed with a different company.

Why are listing agents allowed to intentionally deceive the consumer? You’ll have to ask the district attorney about that one, because there is nobody within the industry that is doing anything to stop it. Get Good Help!!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 12, 2015 in Fraud, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Inventory Watch – 2015!

Today there are exactly 700 houses for sale in NSDCC (numbers below have overlap due to range-pricing). Last year there were 413 new listings in January – prepare for more inventory coming to market!

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf
Nov 10
126
$366/sf
52
0sf
Nov 17
115
$367/sf
51
0sf
Nov 24
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 1
113
$375/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 8
113
$372/sf
50
2,028sf
Dec 15
108
$366/sf
53
2,053sf
Dec 22
101
$364/sf
52
2,044sf
Dec 29
92
$365/sf
57
2,019sf
Jan 5
84
$363/sf
56
1,992sf

Read More

Posted by on Jan 5, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

Inventory Watch – End of 2014

We are wrapping up 2014 much like we did in 2013. There are 7% more active listings today, and list-pricing is about the same.

One significant difference is in mortgage rates. Last December the average Freddie rate was 4.46%, and today we’re at 3.91%. Look for a fast start in 2015!

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf
Nov 10
126
$366/sf
52
0sf
Nov 17
115
$367/sf
51
0sf
Nov 24
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 1
113
$375/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 8
113
$372/sf
50
2,028sf
Dec 15
108
$366/sf
53
2,053sf
Dec 22
101
$364/sf
52
2,044sf
Dec 29
92
$365/sf
57
2,019sf

Read More

Posted by on Dec 29, 2014 in Inventory | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Christmas

The average LP-per-sf is lower this week than the same week last year in every category below. The average DOM and average SF are worse too. Anyone who lists their home for sale this week has to be motivated – keep an eye out!

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf
Nov 10
126
$366/sf
52
0sf
Nov 17
115
$367/sf
51
0sf
Nov 24
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 1
113
$375/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 8
113
$372/sf
50
2,028sf
Dec 15
108
$366/sf
53
2,053sf
Dec 22
101
$364/sf
52
2,044sf

Read More

Posted by on Dec 22, 2014 in Inventory | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Holiday Idle

The current inventory is 7% higher than it was last year at this time, but with mortgage rates under 4% for the first time in a year-and-a-half, the market should get off to a quick start in 2015.

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf
Nov 10
126
$366/sf
52
0sf
Nov 17
115
$367/sf
51
0sf
Nov 24
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 1
113
$375/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 8
113
$372/sf
50
2,028sf
Dec 15
108
$366/sf
53
2,053sf

Read More

Posted by on Dec 15, 2014 in Inventory | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Persisting

Christmas is 2.5 weeks away, but we haven’t seen much holiday dropoff in listings – we’re only 21% under the total number of properties we had for sale at the end of September (and +9% YoY).

One reason? Because listings go stale so quickly, there are probably sellers who haven’t had a showing in so long they forgot to cancel their listing!

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf
Nov 10
126
$366/sf
52
0sf
Nov 17
115
$367/sf
51
0sf
Nov 24
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 1
113
$375/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 8
113
$372/sf
50
2,028sf

Read More

Posted by on Dec 8, 2014 in Inventory | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Holiday

The usual slowing this time of year will be blamed on the holidays, but you could also make a case that the inventory is so picked over that there’s no meat left on the bone. Don’t blame the buyers – I saw/heard about four new listings that received multiple offers in the last ten days.

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf
Nov 10
126
$366/sf
52
0sf
Nov 17
115
$367/sf
51
0sf
Nov 24
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
Dec 1
113
$375/sf
46
2,007sf

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Posted by on Dec 1, 2014 in Inventory | 3 comments

Inventory Watch – Flat YoY

This is the 52nd week of logging the inventory under this format, so you can reflect back to a year ago and compare how we’re doing. Today’s numbers are similar to 2013 – here is a summary of the late-November comparison:

Nov 2013/2014
Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
UNDER-$800,000
95/122
$376/$373
47/46
1,988sf/2,007sf
$800,000-$1.4M
245/256
$448/$431
61/69
2,856sf/2,948sf
$1.4M – $2.4M
227/234
$580/$583
81/97
3,682sf/3,646sf
OVER-$2.4M
340/348
$1,040/$1,010
159/156
6,347sf/6,277sf

At least those who haven’t bought yet can say they didn’t lose any ground in 2014. Expect their resolve to stand firm in 2015.

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf
Oct 20
130
$385/sf
45
0sf
Oct 27
128
$375/sf
48
0sf
Nov 3
128
$371/sf
49
0sf
Nov 10
126
$366/sf
52
0sf
Nov 17
115
$367/sf
51
0sf
Nov 24
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf

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Posted by on Nov 24, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments