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Category Archive: ‘Inventory’

Inventory Watch

A few extra new listings this past week – and it could continue!

We started a run during the last week of April, 2016 where we had 100+ listings in nine out of the next ten weeks.  We averaged 70 new pendings per week during the same time frame.

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69
Apr 24
106
68

All ahead full!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 24, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Real Spanish-style!

Easter is behind us and taxes are wrapping up – here we go!  There have been a steady stream of new listings, and for the next 3-4 weeks we will be in the prime selling season!

The Under-$800,000 inventory has rebounded nicely too – four weeks ago we had 19 houses for sale, and today there are 35 priced under $800,000!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69

All ahead full!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 17, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Not So Tight

Here’s another way to demonstrate the ‘tight inventory’.

In our MLS, all new listings throughout the county are sequentially assigned a listing number.  Yesterday, I inputted a listing that got #170017800.  The first two numbers are the year of the input.

In previous years, on what date did listing #0017800 get inputted?

120017800 – April 4, 2012

130017800 – April 8, 2013

140017800 – April 4, 2014

150017800 – April 1, 2015

160017800 – April 4, 2016

170017800 – April 10, 2017

The inventory flow has been remarkably consistent – lately we’ve had 17,800 properties get listed in the first 91 to 100 days of the year.  They may not be where you want them, or at the price you prefer, but there has been a steady flow to consider!

If you are thinking of buying on the higher end and willing to consider other areas, there are plenty for sale.  In fact, there are over 17,000 homes for sale in California listed over $1,000,000 – including one in Bakersfield!

Speaking of my listing #170017800, I’ll be there today 1-4pm!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7060-Via-Del-Charro-Rancho-Santa-Fe-CA-92067/16730852_zpid/

Posted by on Apr 11, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Rancho Santa Fe | 0 comments

Freeze-Dried Frenzy

The market is sizzling, and it could kick up to another level if there were just more homes to sell! Here is a comparison of today’s inventory to previous years (the lower-end is selling fast!):

NSDCC Active Inventory – Second Week of April

Year
$0-$800K
$800K-$1400K
$1400-$2400K
$2400K+
Total
2014
97
233
233
349
912
2015
65
220
218
346
849
2016
37
235
260
447
979
2017
28
168
235
386
817

NSDCC Pendings Today

PEND
$0-$800K
$800K-$1.4M
$1.4M-$2.4M
$2.4M+
Total
4/10/17
38
202
126
69
427

Without more homes to sell, it’s like a freeze-dried frenzy on the lower end – very dry but it’ll keep you alive!

From cnbc.com:

Anyone eager to buy a home this spring probably has reasons to feel good. The job market is solid. Average pay is rising. And mortgage rates, even after edging up of late, are still near historic lows.

And then there’s the bad news: Just try to find a house.

The national supply of homes for sale hasn’t been this thin in nearly 20 years. And over the past year, the steepest drop in supply has occurred among homes that are typically most affordable for first-time buyers and in markets where prices have risen sharply.

In markets like San Diego, Boston and Seattle, competition for a dwindling supply has escalated along with pressure to offer more money and accept less favorable terms.

“Sellers will have the edge again this year,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for Trulia, a real estate data provider. “Homebuyers are really going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as housing choice is concerned.”

The intensity of the competition this spring has surprised even sellers like Kathleen Mulcahy, a 37-year-old product manager in Seattle.

Within a week of listing her one-bedroom, one-bath condo, Mulcahy received 21 offers – all above her asking price of $398,000. Most of the offers came with built-in triggers to automatically rise in case a rival bidder sweetened a bid. In the end, she accepted an offer of $500,000 – all cash.

“A lot more than I expected,” Mulcahy said.

Yet the changed landscape cuts both ways: Facing higher prices and competition herself, Mulcahy has decided for now to put off buying another home.

“There’s very little available, and it’s just too expensive right now, so I’m going to wait,” she said. “I’ll probably rent for two or three years.”

About 1.75 million homes were for sale nationally at the end of February, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s down 6.4 percent from a year earlier and only slightly up from January, when listings reached their lowest point since the association began tracking them in 1999. All told, the supply of homes for sale has fallen on an annual basis for the past 21 months.

Read full article here:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/mission-nearly-impossible-this-spring-finding-a-home-to-buy.html

Posted by on Apr 10, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We’ve had a strong couple of weeks!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83

Everyone who is thinking of moving during the spring selling season should be actively engaged now. We’re at full speed!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 10, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

There is a bit of a surge underway, and we should see some good action over the next few days before people start shutting it down for tax day/Easter.  Those who file their taxes promptly in January or February might be surprised to hear that a lull takes place every year during tax week, but it does!  Maybe it’s the realtors who wait until the last minute?

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70

The lower-end market (Under-$800,000) blew up this past week, increasing from 21 active listings to 26!  There are 414 pending listings today, with a median list price of $1,349,499.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 3, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Given that it’s still early in the season, this was a fairly normal week.

There still has to be some wait-and-see in both buyers and sellers – when that turns into action, it should cause a couple of big weeks in the next 2-3 months:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60

The lower-end market (Under-$800,000) rebounded nicely, from 19 listings last week to 21 today!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 27, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

“Severe Housing Drought”

We are used to headline porn, but this one sounds startling – are we having a Severe Housing Drought?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/this-is-whats-behind-the-severe-housing-drought.html

In the article, she says that nationally we have the fewest homes for sale than at any time in the last 18 years.  But are they just selling faster, which would give the appearance of low inventory?  If we have a similar number of houses being listed and they are selling faster, I wouldn’t consider that a drought, let alone a severe drought.

First, let’s compare the total supply and number of closed sales in 2017 to previous years – these are the numbers from January 1st to March 15th:

NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad)

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
1,042
$1,149,000
518
$842,950
31
2014
1,029
$1,295,000
464
$981,500
30
2015
1,043
$1,345,000
459
$1,145,000
31
2016
1,145
$1,489,900
421
$1,105,584
26
2017
987
$1,499,000
431
$1,200,000
24

This year’s number of new listings is 7% below the average of the last four years, but I wouldn’t call that a drought. If I watered my grass 7% less, it wouldn’t die. Besides, 40% of all listings don’t sell, so maybe the fewer listings just means fewer OPTs? The number of closed sales is much lower than previous years, but better than 2016.

How about the rest of the county?

San Diego County

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
6,749
$479,000
4,426
$402,000
30
2014
7,077
$539,000
3,544
$475,000
28
2015
7,129
$569,000
3,582
$500,000
30
2016
7,146
$559,925
3,634
$532,500
24
2017
6,347
$639,500
3,696
$560,000
20

There are 10% fewer listings this year, compared to the average of the previous four years, but sales are HIGHER than any of the last three years. There isn’t a perfect relationship between listings and sales, because some of the closed sales were listed before January 1st. But the trend looks fine.

I don’t keep a record of the number of houses that are pending, but a couple of months ago we were around 300 in NSDCC (between La Jolla and Carlsbad).

Here is today’s count:

Area
# of Active Listings
# of Pendings
Median DOM
NSDCC
795
413
22
San Diego County
3,485
3,070
15

The reason we have a record-low number of homes for sale is because they are selling so fast.  Severe drought isn’t the right adjective – can we call it scorching hot?  Half of the pendings found a buyer in 15 days!

With half of the upcoming closed sales finding their buyer that fast, it means they probably paid the seller’s price, or close.  The other half are sellers who are willing to wait until they get their price!  It means the pricing trend should continue upward.

I think we’re back in the frenzy zone!

Posted by on Mar 23, 2017 in Frenzy, How Hot?, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

While the new listings were normal this week, new pendings erupted:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82

The lower-end market is evaporating right before our eyes:

Date
Number of Listings Under $800,000
Avg. List Price Per SF
Aug 29th
63
$401/sf
Today
19
$462/sf

In an area of 300,000 people (between La Jolla and Carlsbad), there are only 19 houses for sale priced under $800,000, an all-time record low.

The average list-price-per-square-foot has gone up 15% in six months!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 20, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment