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MLS Listings of Detached Homes in Carmel Valley, 92130:

ACTIVES:  111 

$1,778,211 average list price,  $399/sf,  132 Avg. Days on Mkt.

(25% of those homes on market more than 6 months)

PENDINGS:  63 

$1,163,104 average list price,  $336/sf,  76 Avg. DOM

(41 pending, 22 contingent)

DEC. 09 SOLDS:  47 

$1,032,650 average sales price,  $331/sf,

75 DOM,  96% SP:LP

DEC. 08 SOLDS:  20

$1,092,245 average sales price,  $346/sf

46 DOM,  95% SP:LP

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In areas like CV, I think you can count the contingents as ‘likely-to-close-someday’, because the low inventory and quick sales are causing buyers to hang in longer, and pay more if needed - just to buy something, and conclude the hunt:  

There have been 16 houses listed over $1,000,000 that have gone pending this month in Carmel Valley. In 2009, there were 121 closings over $1,000,000, averaging $338/sf.

The new year is barreling down on us, and before you know it we’ll be in the ’spring-kick’ season. How is it looking so far?

I want to update the previous stat check from a week ago – it wasn’t balanced due to fewer business days/more weekends.  Let’s compare the first 15 days of January, that way every year will have two weekends included, instead of the previous Jan. 1-11 comparison.

We can refer to the 2003-2007 period as the ’steroids era’ of mortgage lending, and consider those stats hyped up.  All years are included below:

January 1-15

You can see a historic timeline just in these numbers. In 1997, Bush passed the $500,000 tax exclusion for couples who owner-occupied for two-out-of-five years, and by 1999, the specuvestors were flipping houses. They lost some steam after 2001 because the thrill was gone after the second move, and buyers were drying up, right in line with the usual 10-year real estate cycle – in fact, a downturn was overdue.

About then there was an audible gasp from the Calabasas area, and the next thing you know CFC was flooding the streets with neg-am mortgages – and by 2003 the market took off like a rocket. So let’s call the 2003-2007 period the ’steroids era’ of mortgage lending, and not use those numbers for comparison.

Instead, let’s look at the 1999-2002 era as at least being more normal than any year since (but in reality we haven’t had a normal year around these parts since 1985!). In 1999, the flipper tax exclusion helped to boost sales, plus the interest-only mortgages were the loan du jour – and both are still available today. In addition, we have much lower rates, and higher loan limits today, so let’s at least call the 2010 market, ’semi-juiced’, and compare to the 1999-2002 era which had some juice to it too:

So we’re not quite back to turn-of-the-decade numbers, but there is a slight resemblance with the number of sales. Could we call it ‘close-enough’, just because the ultra-low inventory is impeding sales? What are other factors? The number of sales should be higher once the late-reporters wrap up, that usually adds 10%. Currently there are multiple offers on every decent-priced listing today, and if it weren’t for the graft and corruption among agents, there would be more sales at higher prices, probably at least 70-90 sales for this period. But the price has to be right – look at the disparity between active and pending listings in North SD County Coastal:

1,124 Actives: LP=$680/sf, 121 DOM

289 Pendings: LP=$375/sf (x 95% = $356/sf SP), 71 DOM

There shouldn’t be any fear of additional foreclosures, in fact; the more, the better. They are the best chance of finding more reasonably-priced homes that you can buy!

Back in September we featured the same floor plan a block down the street - it listed for $144,900, and was purchased for $177,000 by flippers.

They have since put it back on the market for $277,000 and found a buyer within 27 days – it’s now pending: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWqFEvlB4BA

Two weeks ago this one hit the open market:

What’s the common denominator amongst today’s buyers?

The bidding wars are intensely competitive, and without laws or regulations – anything goes! It is pretty impressive how many buyers are hanging in the fight, and willing to bid higher than list-price. Nobody likes it, but the multiple frustrations along the way make people want to just get it over with!

3clicks wrote:

“While I embrace the Internet for many reason, It would be used by some as another way to disguise the snake oil.” 

Agreed, but once every listing has a video it will cut down the deceit.  Videos should be mandatory, and they’d especially help the bank-sellers in far-away towns who should have the benefit of seeing their REO and the comps for a thorough review.

It might have helped here:

The internet has magnified our quest for instant gratification.

In real estate, the internet helps to stir up a frenzy by allowing a potential home buyer to search for an attractive property – and when they see a hot one, they’ll look into it. But by the time they react, it’s already sold. Buyers learn to react faster and faster, and after missing one or two good ones they’re on the edge of their seat, checking for new meat every few minutes!

Here’s more: