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Category Archive: ‘Frenzy’

“Severe Housing Drought”

We are used to headline porn, but this one sounds startling – are we having a Severe Housing Drought?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/this-is-whats-behind-the-severe-housing-drought.html

In the article, she says that nationally we have the fewest homes for sale than at any time in the last 18 years.  But are they just selling faster, which would give the appearance of low inventory?  If we have a similar number of houses being listed and they are selling faster, I wouldn’t consider that a drought, let alone a severe drought.

First, let’s compare the total supply and number of closed sales in 2017 to previous years – these are the numbers from January 1st to March 15th:

NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad)

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
1,042
$1,149,000
518
$842,950
31
2014
1,029
$1,295,000
464
$981,500
30
2015
1,043
$1,345,000
459
$1,145,000
31
2016
1,145
$1,489,900
421
$1,105,584
26
2017
987
$1,499,000
431
$1,200,000
24

This year’s number of new listings is 7% below the average of the last four years, but I wouldn’t call that a drought. If I watered my grass 7% less, it wouldn’t die. Besides, 40% of all listings don’t sell, so maybe the fewer listings just means fewer OPTs? The number of closed sales is much lower than previous years, but better than 2016.

How about the rest of the county?

San Diego County

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
6,749
$479,000
4,426
$402,000
30
2014
7,077
$539,000
3,544
$475,000
28
2015
7,129
$569,000
3,582
$500,000
30
2016
7,146
$559,925
3,634
$532,500
24
2017
6,347
$639,500
3,696
$560,000
20

There are 10% fewer listings this year, compared to the average of the previous four years, but sales are HIGHER than any of the last three years. There isn’t a perfect relationship between listings and sales, because some of the closed sales were listed before January 1st. But the trend looks fine.

I don’t keep a record of the number of houses that are pending, but a couple of months ago we were around 300 in NSDCC (between La Jolla and Carlsbad).

Here is today’s count:

Area
# of Active Listings
# of Pendings
Median DOM
NSDCC
795
413
22
San Diego County
3,485
3,070
15

The reason we have a record-low number of homes for sale is because they are selling so fast.  Severe drought isn’t the right adjective – can we call it scorching hot?  Half of the pendings found a buyer in 15 days!

With half of the upcoming closed sales finding their buyer that fast, it means they probably paid the seller’s price, or close.  The other half are sellers who are willing to wait until they get their price!  It means the pricing trend should continue upward.

I think we’re back in the frenzy zone!

Posted by on Mar 23, 2017 in Frenzy, How Hot?, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

SD Spring Selling Season Starts Now

Here is a good visual aid that shows how closed sales usually jump in March – and those are sales that began in January and February.

Sales last March were 39% higher than in February!

This year, we’re coming in hot too.  Sales in the last four months of 2016 were similar to those in the frenzied 2013!

Click here for more of Rich Toscano’s work:

https://piggington.com/december_2016_housing_data

Posted by on Feb 7, 2017 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Spring Kick, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 0 comments

San Diego County Detached-Homes

Tom asked for some thoughts on the county-wide market!  Though we had a few more listings in 2016 than in recent years, the closed sales were the highest of the last three years – and within 1,000 of the frenzied 2013 total.

San Diego County Detached-Home Listings and Sales

Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Median LP
Median SP
SP:LP
2013
33,077
24,910
$459,990
$455,000
98.9%
2014
33,752
22,101
$499,999
$495,000
99.0%
2015
33,040
23,733
$539,000
$529,000
98.1%
2016
34,015
23,943
$569,000
$560,000
98.4%

The SP:LP ratio is down slightly, but for the median sales price to be within 1.6% of the median list price on 23,943 sales is pretty remarkable – especially when the median sales price has risen 23% since 2013!

Save

Posted by on Feb 7, 2017 in Frenzy, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Tom Tarrant | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

How about that weather!  Flash-flood warnings, high-surf advisories, and 1-2 inches of rainfall in the last 72 hours!

It’s not stopping buyers and sellers from getting together though!

We had 59 new pendings this week – the most since mid-October!

The lower-end exploded this week too.

There are only 24 houses for sale under $800,000, and their average list price per square foot jumped 10% in one week, to $470/sf.

The $470/sf is higher than the category above it, $800,000 – $1,400,000, which averaged $463/sf.  It’s the first time that’s ever happened!

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY…WAVES BREAKING  22 TO 25 FEET ALONG WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 23, 2017 in Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 2 comments

Bring Back Dirty Cash?

Just a month after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, a federal anti-money laundering program that targets luxury real estate is set to expire.

The dragnet monitors pricey home deals for signs of dirty cash, helping detect criminals who launder money through real estate. Manhattan and Miami-Dade County were the first markets scrutinized by the feds.

Here’s the big question: Will Trump — who made his money as a developer — keep the heat on the real estate industry? And if the administration of a developer-turned-president chooses not to renew or expand the regulations, will it be perceived as a conflict of interest.

Unlike other industries where cash changes hands freely, real estate has few checks on buyers.

Drug dealers and corrupt foreign officials have been busted buying condos and mansions in the United States. While the Obama administration rules were blasted by developers and brokers as faulty, they don’t seem to have hurt business as much as first feared since going into effect in March.

Read more here:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/biz-monday/article127809744.html

Posted by on Jan 23, 2017 in Drug Money, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Real Estate Investing, Spring Kick | 2 comments

8,000,000 Millionaires in U.S.

mb

Here’s how we got here, and why it will probably continue – H/T daytrip!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/cheer-up-america-1-700-millionaires-are-minted-every-day

The U.S. is home to a working class suffering from stagnant incomes and declining job prospects—widespread struggles that helped elect Republican Donald Trump. The relative wealth of Americans in all age groups keeps falling, compared with previous decades.

At the same time, the country is also home to an unprecedented amount of wealth, a divergence that has made income inequality a household phrase. America has $55.6 trillion in private financial assets and more millionaires than any other nation in the world by far. Today, more than 8 million households have financial assets of $1 million or more, not including homes or luxury goods, according to Boston Consulting Group. From 2010 to 2015, the number of millionaires jumped by 2.4 million. Another 3.1 million will be created by 2020, BCG estimates, at the pace of 1,700 new American millionaires every day.

But before your faith in upward mobility is restored, realize this: The very oldest Americans hold a disproportionate chunk of all those trillions, and they’re handing it off to their already well-off kids in what is the largest generational transfer of wealth in history.

Inheritance is an increasingly significant driver of wealth in America. Wide swaths of the country live from month to month with virtually no savings safety net. About three-quarters of the country are “strugglers,” unable to save anything from year to year, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis concluded in a study last year. The other quarter of the country, however, are “thrivers,” the St. Louis Fed said—people who successfully save money and accumulate wealth over the years. These include the top 1 percent, who have steadily taken more and more of the nation’s economic output.

Being a millionaire isn’t what it used to be. A net worth of $1 million has the same buying power today that $341,000 did in 1980 and that $45,000 did 100 years ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. If you’re making six figures and saving regularly, you should eventually end up with a million dollars or more in your investment accounts. (You’d better, since you’ll need to save that much to have any hope of maintaining your lifestyle in retirement.

Save

Posted by on Nov 21, 2016 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, The Future | 4 comments

Bidding-War Report

2016-11-09-12-20-55

We received 16 written offers on the Bluff Ct. property – here are notes:

Five agents were from the LA/OC area.  Because their MLS (CRMLS) covers most of the rest of Southern California, they were used to traveling to sell a house.  San Diego home sellers want these LA/OC buyers to come here, because our prices look cheap to them.

The first three offers were all below list price. When it came time for the highest-and-best round, all three withdrew.  I would have thought that the first offers submitted would be from the most motivated buyers?

The average down payment was 33%.  There was one cash offer, and four that had less than a 20% down payment.

Five of the financed offers didn’t include a pre-qual letter.

Five buyers increased their offer during the highest-and-best round, by an average of $21,000.

List price was $749,000 – three H&B offers came in at $799,000 and higher.

My youtube video of the home’s defects is up to 335 views!

Posted by on Nov 10, 2016 in Bidding Wars, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

Trump and Housing

celebs

Well, now what?

Will there be a flood of new inventory from those who leave the country?

No way – the mega-rich celebrities might hit the road, but normal people will stay put.  We have it too good here, and moving to another country is everything its cracked up to be:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/heading-to-canada-post-election-is-a-bad-money-move.html

Without a flood of inventory, our market conditions should stay the same – the demand for buying houses far out-stripping the supply, with the only thing in the way of sellers selling is their own price reluctance.

The demand could get stronger too.  We had hundreds of open-house visitors to the listing on Bluff Ct., and 16 offers – the weekend before the election!  There had to be a segment of buyers who have been on hold until the election concluded.  If they get back in, the demand could grow further.

If Trump gets the same chance that Obama got to prove himself, and Trump gets off to a decent start, we could see the housing frenzy fire up again early next year around North San Diego County’s coastal region.

Posted by on Nov 9, 2016 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 7 comments