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Mary asked, “How many SD foreclosures have there been over the last three years?”

A total of 44,216 trustee sales since January 1, 2007!

In the same time frame there have been 95,499 sales of detached and attached homes on the MLS.

Feel like spending around $1.3 million or so?

Here’s what it’ll get you in the Convenant of Rancho Santa Fe:

It looks like servicers are coasting into the HAFA/short-sale era, which officially begins April 5th. Here are the foreclosure stats from the last 12 weeks:

My guess?  The HAFA package will encourage borrowers to pick a lane – either loan modification or short-sale.  But there are probably enough strategic defaulters to keep it busy down at the court house steps, but so far there have been very few quality properties at attractive opening bids.  I’m checking the list everyday, and I haven’t gone down to the ’steps once this year!

Kelly at the Voice of SD reviews the current market conditions in the San Diego real estate market at this link, here’s an excerpt:

There were 9,243 active homes and condos for sale on the Multiple Listing Service on Tuesday, according to Klinge. That number pales next to the number of distressed properties that have yet to be repossessed: 7,260 homes that have received at least one default notice and 10,221 that are headed for auction, according to Klinge. None of those nearly 17,500 properties have gone back to the bank yet.

But the threat of a flood of distressed properties hitting the market and driving prices down in one fell swoop has been just that — a threat — for years now. Klinge’s been monitoring the homes that hit the courthouse steps, and nearly as many auctions have been cancelled as have actually gone forward.

Here is Rich Toscano’s take on it, link here.

Bottom line?  We’ve been knocking on a lot of doors, and it appears that the servicers are keeping the loan modders on the foreclosure rolls for now, and cancelling the trustee sale once the borrowers are well into permanent-mod status.

Unfortunately we don’t know enough about the homeowners on the foreclosure rolls, other than they aren’t making their payments.  If the government can help them get a loan modification that’ll stick, or they can bargain for a short sale, then we won’t see them on the court house steps in the near future.

How many defaulters could end up on the open market?

Here are the number of SFRs that have a NOD or NOTS filed, the combined number of detached short sales on the MLS (ACT+CONT), and the year-to-date results of the trustee sales conducted:

There are 900 properties on the f-list (366+534), and with only 278 of them actively engaged in trying to sell, it leaves roughly 622 houses in question (though there are probably short sale listings that aren’t in default yet).

Will they get a satisfactory loan modification? Or will they be the short-sale or foreclosure candidates over the next few months? Or live under the radar until forced to move?

There have been 252 closed MLS sales, year-to-date, so if all 622 went up for sale over the next few months, I think the market could absorb them.

San Diego County defaulted properties (thanks foreclosureradar!):

Wrap-up on Carlsbad f-list properties – La Plancha did postpone to next month:

There has only been one house in the Covenant close under $1,000,000 so far, the 1,862sf one on 3.16 acres at 6427 Paseo Delicias:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090036222-6427_Paseo_Delicias_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

It had listed for $1,320,000 in June, but had to lower to $999,800 before it sold for full price on September 30th.  Will there be more?

This will be a good test:

Sean and the folks at Foreclosureradar.com are very gracious in providing their data, though I don’t like this – fewer trustee sales, and more cancellations.

If the trend continues, we’ll have fewer REO listings, which are typically well-priced and vacant, and instead have more short-sales and loan modifications:

The bulk of the defaulting mortgages are from refinancings, which are full-recourse.  Are the lenders/servicers gearing up for The Big Collection?

Maybe not, and perhaps the opposite.  They could be anticipating HAFA, the latest foreclosure-avoidance device that encourages lenders and servicers to approve short sales, and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure.  HAFA begins April 5th.

HAFA directs the servicers to pre-approve the short sale, prior to listing the home for sale. 

Once approved, the homeowner gets four months to sell the house, stalling any foreclosure proceedings, and then gets $1,500 for moving expenses.  It also looks like the homeowner get released from all liability too. 

Here are more details on HAFA, from Inside Mortgage Finance:

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