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We’ve followed the same four REO listing agents since 2007, looking for clues about the flow of REO inventories.  Here is a comparison of late-August numbers:

August 21, 2007 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

August 21, 2008 – 121 Actives/147 Pendings = 0.82

August 27, 2009 – 44 Actives/135 Pendings = 0.33

On foreclosureradar there are 4,274 bank-owned properties, for these REO specialists to only have 179 properties on the market today indicates a major blockage.

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Maybe they are just closing them quickly? Here are their year-to-date numbers, through 8/15:

They are closing fewer than last year?

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Maybe the moratoriums bogged them down, and they are rolling now? Here are their July’s stats:

Even though the powers that be have choked off the flow of REOs, it doesn’t seem to have stopped REO pricing from plummeting 44% in the last two years.

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August is almost over, has there at least been an overall increase in REOs listed this month, compared to July, 2009?

True, this month isn’t over, but even with a three day blitz we’re not going to come close to last month’s new REO listings.

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The 8,000 lb. gorilla in the room are the 20,672 defaulted properties in San Diego County. Can they get a loan modification or short sale completed, or are they destined for the court house steps too?

The servicers are getting aggressive about closing short sales quicker. One in process got an unexpected incentive yesterday – if we can close by the end of September we get a 7% commission, instead of 6%. But it’s not the taxpayers taking the hit, it’s the private mortgage insurance company.

Another month gone by, and what do we have? Servicers racking up more fees, deadbeats enjoying more free rent, and buyers waiting anxiously to steal one from the bank. We need an REO enema!

Has the REO business been picking up?  The foreclosure agents we’ve been following were impacted by the foreclosure moratorium, where are they now?

Here is the first half of 2008, with today’s tally at the bottom:

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 – 482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 – 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 – 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

June 27 – 261 Actives/261 Pendings = 1.00

March 9 – 223 Actives/223 Pendings = 1.00

In spite of the foreclosure ban, REO business has picked up – the totals were about half as much four or five months ago.

These same agents have listed 229 properties this year, and had 330 go pending since January 1st.   They’ve closed 260 so far this year, and improvement of 17% over last year’s 223 closings in the same period.

We’ve been following the same four agents who specilize in REO sales, and after this latest reading, I decided to investigate further – there must be more to these numbers:

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 – 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 – 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

June 27 – 261 Actives/261 Pendings = 1.00

July 30 – 169 Actives/195 Pendings = 0.87

August 21 – 121 Actives/147 Pendings = 0.82

Below is my worksheet used to find more facts.  These are the 60 Deutsche REOs in Oceanside currently (out of 61, the last one didn’t fit the page).  The summary:

26 of the 60 aren’t listed on the MLS yet (43%).

The 34 that are listed are spread around between 21 listing agents.  Good idea.

Here is the breakdown:

15 are active listings (price in dark blue)

17 are pending (price in red)

2 have closed (price in light blue)

The average difference between purchase price and list price is -43% (written in left column)

You can also get an idea of the ownership – even though Deutsche Bank is the owner of record, it’s really a bunch of different Deutsche Bank MBS/CDOs. 

The sale price column also shows you the price paid by the previous owner, and the date of sale.  There are only 10 of the 60 that were purchased prior to 2004, and who hit the housing ATM to get in trouble.  Fifty of the 60 were purchased since 2004, and did some version of the walk-away. 

Thanks to my lousy blog host, the best I could do was to make my worksheet an enclosure – click below:

We’ve been following the same four realtors who specialize in selling REOs for a year now.  The industry has always had the reputation of loading up the same agents who are experienced in selling REOs, rather than spreading them around.  So it’s hard to explain why these counts are dropping like they are.  The agents were checked individually, and the counts were evenly distributed, so nobody retired to screw up the numbers.  I guess the backlog is paralyzing all involved?

Here is the history:

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 – 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 – 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

June 27 – 261 Actives/261 Pendings = 1.00

July 30 – 169 Actives/195 Pendings = 0.87

Wouldn’t you think that if the REOs were selling so well, (which they are) the banks would push to get more of them on the market?

I couldn’t resist pointing out this statistical oddity among the four foreclosure agents we’ve been following:

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 – 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 – 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

June 27 – 261 Actives/261 Pendings = 1.00

The dramatic drop in active listings is surprising, given the foreclosure news.  Either the new inventory is being spread around to more agents (finally!) or are the banks holding them back? 

There is an additional category in the new MLS system, Tempo -5, that asks if the listing is an REO.  There are only 323 active listings and 176 pendings marked as REOs in SD County for both detached and attached, so the agents inputting their listings haven’t found and utilized the new category yet.

We’ve been following the same four realtors who specialize in REO sales – here’s an update on their sales of houses and condos:

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 – 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 – 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

The same four agents have closed 624 transactions year-to-date. 

(They closed 763 in 2007)

Their active inventory has dropped considerably, but that could be due to the MLS debacle as much as anything.  But it wouldn’t surprise me to see the REO market grind to a halt.  All participants must be beyond peak capacity, and until servicers are willing to hire more people or streamline the process, I don’t think we’ll see additional production – these agents are already looking at doubling their closings this year compared to 2007.

How are the foreclosure agents doing?

Buyers prefer "bank deals", and apparently the lenders are getting the price right! 

We’ve been following the same four realtors who specialize in REO sales – here’s an update on their sales of houses and condos:

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 – 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

The same four agents have closed 487 transactions year-to-date. 

(They closed 763 in 2007)

The averages, based on year-to-date/since April 1st:

1,532 sf/1,541 sf

$337,913/$323,973 average sale price

$220.57 per sf/$210.24 per sf

94 days/80 days on market

Every notch downward, the market picks up a little more steam.

How are the foreclosure agents doing?

Everybody wants to get a bank deal, and the banks keep unloading!

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

A ratio under 2.00 is very healthy – they are pricing them to sell!  The same four agents have closed 384 sales year-to-date, after closing a total of 763 in 2007. 

This year 11% of the closings have been over $500,000.  There were 18% above $500,000 in 2007.

Take a look at the ‘San Diego County REOs’ button in the right-hand column – it was updated today. The last three weeks totals have been less than half the size of recent weeks.

The signs of improving activity can be seen in the statistics of the foreclosure agents we’ve been following – the banks are leading the market:

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 – 486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 – 482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Getting close to a 2 to 1 ratio of actives to pendings must mean that the buyers are satisfied with their pricing – and when they’re not, the banks keep lowering.  It’s more proof that if sellers can just get the price right (meaning low enough), there are buying waiting.

Here are the averages on their 236 closed sales in 2008:

SP: $326,854

SP:LP ratio = 96.9%

1,457 sf

107 days on market

91% of the sales were under $500,000