bubbleinfo.com

Nathan won the contest for Charger playoff tickets, but said he couldn’t make it, and to either give the tickets to the second-placer, or do something else with the dough.

Let’s do something else, so all bubbleinfo participants can benefit.

What could we spend a few hundred dollars on?

• Data research?
• Pizza parties?
• Haiti relief?
• Medicinal marijuana for shadash?
• Paint for the truck? (hat tip to Justin)

Arturo Ruiz’s ride screams his Chargers pride. The Logan Heights resident painted his 1966 Chevy truck, and his house, in blue and gold.

Congratulations to Nathan, the winner of the Chargers playoff tickets!

He guessed there would be 8,457 active listings of attached and detached homes on the MLS.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/09/22/tsunami-needed/#comments

Today there are 8,608 active listings!

December, 2008 the average amount of homes for sale was 15,116.

On August 11th there were 11,457 active listings in SD County.

On September 22nd there were 8,149 active listings, and it looked like CA renter would win again if inventory continued to taper off.  But it didn’t!

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On September 22nd there were 11,011 pendings, and today there are 10,313 pendings. 

Just a pause before the Spring Kick?  Or more downdraft ahead?

I don’t have the inventory-per-day stats, but in November, 2008 there were 4,248 new listings inputted onto the MLS, with the list prices averaging $271/sf. 

Last month there were only 3,546 new listings, and they averaged $279/sf. 

The REO tsunami dripped another drop today, I was assigned this property whose trustee sale was just last Thursday, November 12th. 

The former owner was from Newbury Park, which, according to wiki, has the highest median prices in Ventura County, and among the most affluent areas in the country.  It is typical for these types of folks to come to Oceanside, thinking they are going make a killing on beach real estate.

This is a unique property, so let’s have a contest!

Guess the eventual sales price!

On the tax rolls it’s 3 br/2 ba, 1,300sf on a 1,500sf lot.  There aren’t any great comps, and no appraisals or BPOs have been completed, so I don’t know what the list price will be.  But the opening bid at the trustee sale last week was $513,000 with no takers.

The vacant lot in the video below had listed for $499,000 but had to get down to $275,000 before going pending (sellers paid $399,000 in 2004), and the new condos featured in a previous video have all closed between $405,000 and $781,000, so it appears there is still an appetite for beach real estate in Oceanside!

You can see photos at this link, where they are asking $1,900 per week in winter, and $2,000 per week for summer rentals:

http://www.vrbo.com/71346#photos

The person with the closest guess to the sales price will win a T-shirt!

The REO in the village of Carlsbad finally listed today.

The list price? $601,900.

I mentioned that my BPO was $599,900, but the video must have been powerful.  Of the record 92 guesses, only 19 were under $600,000, and 20 were OVER $700,000!

I appreciate the optimism, and it’s a direct contrast to prior contests when most guesses were well below the eventual sales price. 

I’m hoping this doesn’t get too out of control, because I just received my latest quarterly scorecard, and got ripped again for selling them too high.  Every category had a perfect score except BPO:SP, which equaled 114%.  They dinged me for 35% for missing so badly!

The contest was to guess the sales price, and the winner to receive a slightly-used bubbleinfo t-shirt and prize-to-be-named-later.  Guesses are in the comments section, and here is the original video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbO–aYtaV8

Here is the link for more photos:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090060158-1070_Buena_Vista_Carlsbad_CA_92008

Open House Sunday 10/25, Richard will be there 12-4pm.

The REO on Buena Vista hasn’t hit the open market yet, but should be soon.

Take a guess at what it’ll sell for in the comment section – here’s a youtube tour:

The Chargers are off to a rocky start, though 1-1 is better than the 0-2 they did last year. 

How is our contest looking for playoff tickets?

We were guessing:

How Many Total Active Listings on December 1st, 2009?

December, 2008 the average amount of homes for sale was 15,116.

On August 11, 2009, the total amount of active listings was 11,457.

Today we’re down to 8,149 attached and detached active listings in SD County. 

By the time we get to December, we’re going to be around half of last year’s number! 

How hot is it?  There are 11,011 pendings today!

The list of guessers is in the comment section, and here is the original post: http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/08/11/chargers-contest/

Thanks everyone for participating in the contest for Chargers playoff tickets!

Here are the finalists for best explanation, and winner of four Padres tickets vs. Cardinals:

#4, from JK:

Positives
1) Fannie Mae loans will still be available
2) Stimulus money will inject some money
3) Some people will ‘feel rich’ with the Dow over 9,000
4) Most people still dont understand that it may be easier to walk away
5) Lots of people in SD made money off real estate; once you start, it’s hard to stop

Negatives
1) Banks are drawing a harder line on mods
2) There is a lot of meat left to grind into sausage (foreclosure pipeline)
3) Double dip recession starts when clunkers ends

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#3, from doughboy:

Nice round number, no scientific or mathematical wizardry used what so ever!

Lets just call it 1000 12 packs!

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#2, from mybleachhouse:

There isn’t much for sale now and don’t see much on the horizon. This supposed tsunami that is going to hit is looking more and more like an ankle slapper.

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#1, from JordanT – THE WINNER   (lack of seasonality, and similar to today’s market)

Seasonality is not a major factor in this market as the buyers are investors and first time home buyers (very similar dynamic to last fall). The number of distressed sellers will stay about the same as well, since there doesn’t seem to be much seasonality to NODs/NOTs. Congress will at least extend the $8,000 housing credit, with a chance of making it $15,000 to anyone.

Therefore, the market is going to be very similar to what it is today.

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Here’s the link to the original post:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/08/chargers-contest/

The summary of guesses in the comment section below.

From our friends at housingtracker.net:

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/san-diego-california

In August 2007 there were over 20,000 homes for sale, and today there are 11,457:

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Causing sellers to be more optimistic with their list prices recently:

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Though with 22,462 houses and condos on foreclosureradar’s list of NODs, NOTs, and REOs, there has to be relief ahead, doesn’t there?  Typically in January we see the low inventory count for the year, before the spring kick. 

Let’s use the active inventory as one of our primary indicators.

We’ve seen over the last few months how frenzied up buyers can get when there are few homes for sale.  If we head into the 2010 spring kick with an ultra-low inventory and decent interest rates, it’s going to be off to the races.

If there is a surge of REOs over the next six months, and we head into the spring with a bloated inventory, then we could slog along.

We’ll probably know where we stand by the holidays. 

Housingtracker’s average for last December was 15,116 homes for sale, and today’s count is 11,457 listings. 

If the active inventory is rising by the holidays, then trouble is brewing, because normally the inventory declines towards year-end.  If there are fewer homes on the market in December than there are today, then the spring kick should be lively – any increase in REO inventory could correspond with the usual seasonal boost.

Where do you think we’ll be?

Guess how many attached and detached active listings there will be on the morning of December 1st, and the closest guesser will receive two tickets to a Chargers game!

We’ll have an instant winner too – the best explanation for a guess will receive four Padres tickets for Saturday August 22nd vs. Cardinals at 7:05pm!

We have a winner of the contest to guess the number of detached sales in 2Q09:

This morning’s number is 5,886 – Genius, congratulations, you won the tickets for six box seats at the track!

Here were the guesses:

Guess Guesser
4,850 T
5,250 tj and the bear
5,323 Al in IC
5,325 Kingside
5,358 Kirk
5,406 Phil
5,451 Del Sur Renter
5,500 carmelgirl
5,512 3clicks from da beach
5,553 JAP
5,577 justme
5,578 whatif
5,580 mtb
5,675 Wes
5,678 Kwaping
5,681 The Wood
5,742 Neil Diamond
5,767 Stephen Waits
5,800 propertysearch
5,840 Happs
5,846 mybleachhouse
5,900 Genius
5,950 Erica
5,955 Strider
5,983 CA renter
5,991 osidebuyer
6,000 doughboy
6,001 AlexSD
6,021 bobfather99
6,021 Jaclyn
6,037 KO
6,090 Poorhouse
6,116 IRE
6,127 Nathan
6,200 JG
6,250 KlangOside
6,351 m
6,375 Sol
6,378 Scooter
6,400 Myriad
6,551 Casasolana
6,560 The Blur
6,565 Bryce
6,601 UCgal
6,625 REB
6,700 OCVulture
6,720 Local Boy
6,848 FuturesWatcher
6,856 pigpen
6,942 FirstTimeRenter
7,001 greenlander
7,017 Mike C
7,050 shoppingaround
7,179 mab

Year # of Sales $$/sf
2000 6,620 $174.86
2001 6,358 $196.19
2002 7,358 $221.47
2003 7,371 $254.73
2004 7,960 $377.54
2005 7,724 $361.65
2006 5,767 $368.96
2007 4,899 $357.88
2008 5,020 $278.15
2009 5,886 $223.01

The $223.01 represents a 41% decline since 2Q04.

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We also had the contest to guess the eventual sales price of the REO that listed for $314,900 on Dixon in Oceanside. It sold for $351,000 – Congratulations Myriad, you have four tickets to a Padres game coming your way!

Guess Guesser

$344,800 Rob Dawg
$345,000 doughboy
$346,000 Atenbrown
$346,800 FreedomCM
$347,000 sd nerd
$349,000 Don Q
$349,500 Myriad
$355,000 Mojo
$362,000 Stephen Waits
$415,000 newbie

Link to Original Contest Post with video

On July 23rd we’re going to determine the winner of the latest contest to guess the number of 2Q09 detached sales, but here’s a preview.

As of this morning, the MLS is reporting 5,683 detached closings for 2Q09, at $223.19/sf. There is typically about 10% more added by late-reporting agents, which would be around 6,250. But with more-stringent MLS police enforcement recently, and a slightly earlier date, the final number may be lower.

Duplicate numbers happen every time, but in this contest there was only one double, 6,021, and the two guesses were logged in within four minutes of each other. They are my pick to win!

Here are the guesses:

The “Day at the Track” winner will receive six tickets for box seats right above the finish line at Del Mar, with waitress service!

Here are the previous counts: