NSDCC Listings, First Six Months

Bill (in Giants jersey) from the Bay Area has been reading the blog for the last ten years!

He won the earlier contest for Padres tickets, so when he and his family were here on vacation, they took in the first game of the series last night – a 13-2 shellacking by the Giants! They got on TV too:

Congrats Bill and family!

The contest was predicting how many new listings we would have in the first two months of 2019. Bill’s guess was 777, which was the third lowest of those submitted – we all thought more sellers would want to cash out at these prices!

Yesterday’s doomer was looking for the right evidence – historically, one of the first signs of trouble is a surge of inventory.  We saw it last time in the first half of 2006 when listings jumped 23% as sellers started scrambling to get out:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:

Year
Number of Listings
Median List Price
2005
2,892
$1,150,876
2006
3,547
$1,120,000
2007
3,120
$1,182,500

But still no surge here locally in 2019.

Our inventory count this year is looking normal – and 24% under the 2006 count:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:

Year
Number of Listings
Median List Price
2013
2,790
$1,179,000
2014
2,713
$1,120,000
2015
2,871
$1,182,500
2016
2,999
$1,425,000
2017
2,712
$1,425,000
2018
2,700
$1,499,000
2019
2,705
$1,569,000

In the first half of 2005, we had 400 sales close under $750,000, and this year we had 55.

We had 560 homes list for $2,000,000+ in the first half of 2005, and 238 closings.  This year, we had 901 listings over $2,000,000, and 298 closings!

Padres Contest Winner!

Padres’ Tickets Contest – Guesses Under 800:

740 – Doughboy

755 – Neil

777 – Bb

785 – Recordsclerk

799 – TominLaCosta

Even if a few more are added in the coming days, Bb is our winner – congratulations!  (Bb, contact me for tickets)

Today’s count:

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 28 (as of March 11th):

2018: 783

2019: 767

There was enough concern about how the market wrapped up in the second half of 2018 that I thought we could see more sellers getting an early start in 2019.  But there’s no panic – we didn’t even list as many homes as we did in the first two months of 2018, let alone more.

Inventory Watch

We’ve had a mini-surge in listings over the last few days!  There will be a few more added to the MLS this week, but it looks like the total for the first two months of the year will wind up in the 760-785 range.

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 28 (as of March 4th):

2018: 783

2019: 760 

Padres’ Tickets Contest – Guesses Under 800:

740 – Doughboy

755 – Neil

777 – Bb

785 – Recordsclerk

799 – TominLaCosta

We wanted to gauge whether there was any panic setting in among sellers, judged by how many more were rushing their home onto the market early in the selling season.  If there would have been a surge of 5% to 10% more listings during the first two months of this year, it could have been a tipping point.

But as it turns out, we’ll be lucky to match last year’s total.

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Closed sales are better than expected:

NSDCC Closed Sales:

Year
January
February
Median SP YTD
Avg $$/sf YTD
2017
175
173
$1,222,000
$513/sf
2018
150
164
$1,294,005
$573/sf
2019
150
171
$1,275,000
$540/sf

(Updated March 11th)

The 2019 median list price and sales price were the same $1.275M!

But the NSDCC Pendings are stalling, and now 19% under last year’s total at this time, so I’ll stick with my -20% guess on sales. We got off to a hot start this year, but the enthusiasm is slowing – based on this:

Weekly Total Pendings

Week
2018
2019
% diff
Jan
244
217
-11%
Feb
262
233
-11%
Feb
280
255
-9%
Feb
295
263
-11%
Feb
318
261
-18%
Mar
328
267
-19%

The average list-price-per-square-foot of listings priced under $1,500,000 has been flat lately, and about the same as last year. But listings priced between $1,500,000 and $2,000,000 are averaging about 10% higher LP/$ than last year.

A sluggish selling season would probably end earlier than usual, but give us at least a couple of more months, please!

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Inventory Watch

Thanks Rob Dawg for the gift!

Our contest for Padres tickets got more exciting this week due to Manny Mania!

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 20:

2018: 681

2019: 644 (-5%)

The two-month total last year was 783, so we’re on a pace to hit 741.  Doughboy guessed 740, but it came in after the guessing period ended.  If he wins, I’ll give tickets to him and the next closest guesser.

Others who guessed under 800:

755 – Neil

777 – Bb

785 – Recordsclerk

799 – TominLaCosta

We finally hit a statistical oddity that we’ve been flirting with for months.  The average list-price-per-sf of the Under-$1,000,000 category caught up with the next category, $1.0M to $1.5M.

Both are at $494/sf today!

There was another quirk also. The new listings AND the new pendings both dropped off over the past week, which is unusual for this time of year.  It must have been due to the rain?

The total number of pendings today is 18% behind last year.

Looking ahead to next month? It starts Friday!  We had 446 new listings in March of last year, which was 25% more than in February, 2018.

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Inventory Watch

It was suggested that we change the price categories again, and the start of the new year would be a good time to do it.

But I’m going to leave them be, for two reasons: A) Pricing, and the market in general, has stalled – literally we have twice as many NSDCC active listings priced under $1M today as we did a year ago (72 vs. 36), and B) I want to compare apples and apples to 2018 throughout the year.

If you took an extended vacation and are just getting back in the swing, scroll back a few posts (or click here) to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

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Padres Contest

Big Papi’s last game in SD

Would you like some guidance on what to expect in the Spring Selling Season?

Let’s monitor how many new NSDCC listings are hitting the market!

If the negative media hype is starting to worry sellers, they will hurry up and list their home early.  If we see a surge of new listings in the first two months of the year, it means a buyers’ market is forming.

If we have about the same or fewer listings in early 2019, then sellers will just shrug off any concerns and wait their turn.

Here are the counts of listings inputted onto the MLS in January and February from the last few years:

NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb

Year
Jan+Feb Listings
Median List Price
Median DOM
2012
794
$954,500
88
2013
785
$1,130,000
37
2014
802
$1,295,000
42
2015
821
$1,345,000
37
2016
917
$1,489,900
46
2017
787
$1,499,876
38
2018
782
$1,599,000
35

The average is 813 listings, and with the last two years both being lower, it would take a significant YoY increase to worry most participants. But at least we’ll know first!

Put your guess in the comment section of how many new listings we’ll have in January and February, and on March 15th we’ll see who is closest.

The winner will get four tickets to a Padres game! The photos here were taken from the seats, and I’ll have about ten dates available.

Larry Baer, CEO of the SF Giants

Was There Some Panic in 4Q?

We’re going to start a contest for Padres tickets in the new year, so let’s get a read on how things wrapped up in 2018.

We know that NSDCC sales were down 10%, and the median SP was up 8%.  Sales of detached homes in San Diego County were down 11%, and the median sales price was up 7%.

If sellers were feeling a sense of panic about the market – and prices – we would be seeing more new listings hit the market.

Have there been more listings than usual lately?

NSDCC Listings, 4th Quarter

Year
4th Qtr Listings
Median List Price
Dec. Listings
Median List Price
2013
727
$1,199,000
164
$1,090,000
2014
761
$1,199,000
150
$1,185,000
2015
866
$1,348,500
200
$1,137,450
2016
836
$1,377,500
201
$1,375,000
2017
753
$1,549,900
153
$1,495,000
2018
842
$1,536,900
154
$1,524,000

The other comparisons we’ve done have shown that the 2018 stats have mostly been similar to previous years. But once we have the complete total for new listings, it looks like the 4Q18 number is likely to be at, or above, all of the recent years.  It’s already 12% above last year, and the MLP is actually lower.

There were fewer December listings, but that means the October/November count was higher than ever.  With soggy conditions in place already, did potential sellers this month decide to wait for a 2019 launch?

Will we see a surge of new listings in early 2019?

Failed Auction?

The no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway today was postponed until April 25th.

Why would you postpone for 5 days?

There has to be buyers. This company has been very successful in selling seven and $8-figure homes throughout the world, and they have grown exponentially. The auction process is a big hit, and it is the best solution for selling homes.

George guessed that it could be a failed auction before I saw it get postponed on the website.  He’s looking very astute now….or is George an insider? 😆

Save

Save

Live Auction April 20th

The auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway is Thursday!

You can watch the auction live at 4:00pm Pacific Time on the Concierge Auctions mobile app, where you can also find their rules list.  They will add a 10% buyer’s premium to the winning bid to determine the final sales price.  If you didn’t know that and want to change your bid, feel free!

Kemp has $12,000,000 invested.  The person with the closest guess will receive four tickets to a Padres game!  Here are the guesses:

$4,200,000 – Rob

$4,735,000 – BAM

$5,325,000 – Amy

$5,700,000 – elbarcosr

$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie

$6,200,000 – Nick LB

$6,250,000 – Tom

$6,500,000 – LT

$6,519,000 – Matt V.

$6,900,000 – Daniel

$7,050,000 – Susie

$7,126.000 – Ed

$7,350,000 – Mark H.

$7,423,200 – Goughy

$7,875,000 – Kerry

$7,900,000 – kman

$8,000,000 – Name

$8,800,000 – Mike M.

$8,888,888.88 – JakeL

$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad

$9,210,000 – CJ

$9,400,000 – Derek

$9,500,000 – Joe k

$9,600,000 – Mike Call

$9,750,000 – bode

$9,800,000 – Jenny

$10,000,200 – Janet

$10,527,000 – Eddie89

There is still time – leave your guess in the comment section below.

Here are more details on the house:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2017/03/27/contest-4-padres-tickets/

Save

Padres’ Tickets Contest

We’re looking forward to the no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house on April 20th, and have four tickets to a Padres game for the person whose guess comes closest to the actual sales price (which will include the auction premium).

Kemp has $12,000,000 invested.  Here are the guesses so far!

$4,200,000 – Rob

$5,700,000 – elbarcosr

$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie

$6,500,000 – LT

$6,519,000 – Matt V.

$6,900,000 – Daniel

$7,050,000 – Susie

$7,126.000 – Ed

$7,350,000 – Mark H.

$7,875,000 – Kerry

$7,900,000 – kman

$8,000,000 – Name

$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad

$9,210,000 – CJ

$9,400,000 – Derek

$9,500,000 – Joe k

$9,600,000 – Mike Call

$9,750,000 – bode

$10,527,000 – Eddie89

There is still time to get your guess in!

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2017/03/27/contest-4-padres-tickets/

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