There is a lot here that I liked!
Category Archive: ‘Bubbleinfo TV’
A couple more from the largest planned community being built in Carlsbad:
A pure California Ranch on 2.79 acres!
Park-like estate with a stunning 5br + den, 4.5-bath single-level main house that was redesigned and extensively upgraded in 2009. The large but intimate great room has soaring wood-beam ceilings, wide-plank hardwood floors, and french doors that open wide to let the sunshine in! Pool/spa, 3-car garage, detached 2br guest house, lighted tennis court, detached office, RSF schools, no HOA, and the master suite was highly upgraded in 2016! The floor plan is perfect for multi-gen families, with a 2-bedroom wing on one-side with the master suite + 2 bedrooms on the other side! Plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the Ranch – horses OK too! $2,950,000
Call or text Jim Klinge, broker 858-997-3801
There are 681 houses for sale today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which is roughly 5% fewer than last year. The median list price is $2,495,000! The inventory is so picked over that new listings should get a lot of attention!
Logically, it would make sense to expect that higher rates AND prices would raise the home-selling intensity to a whole new level.
Buyers will expect prices to re-trace somewhat, and will probably think, “Can’t we just go back to 2015 prices?” And sellers will think, “Not Me!”
First, let’s reflect on the 2016 stats – how did we do?
NSDCC Detached-Homes, Jan-Nov
We have been striking a fine balance between listings and sales.
Because we only had a few more listings in 2017, the buyers didn’t flinch. Instead, they kept buying!
Every year we have a whole new set of buyers and sellers, yet we expect them to all behave the same as in the previous year. Will it happen again? Yes. Why?
Because that’s the other part of the fine balance. If you are a buyer, either you buck up and pay these prices, or you don’t buy. If you are a seller, you want/need to spruce up your house, get a good agent, and put an attractive price on it, or you will struggle to sell. Buyers will be pickier than ever!
There will be a few on each side that get lucky and beat the odds, but for the most part, the market conditions are going to remain the same until we run out of rich people, or something catastrophic happens.
I’m not any better at guessing the actual stats than the next guy, but here goes.
On January 7, 2016, mortgage rates were 3.98%, and I guessed were would see 2016 sales drop 5%. For the Jan-Nov period, it has been a virtual dead heat – 2775 sales this year vs. 2771 in 2015. But I might get lucky if our rapidly rising mortgage rates killed a bunch of deals this month, and the YoY sales dip under 2015 by a couple of points.
We have eight business days left, plus late-reporters, so I’ll say no luck for me and predict that the final total of 2016 will match the 3,011 sales from 2015.
The current momentum is so strong that I’m going to say the Trump mojo will cause sales to increase enough in the first half of the year that next year’s sales will top those in 2016.
My guess is for 3,100 sales in 2017, and median sales price of $1,200,000. A paltry 3% gain for each category, which is about as safe as it gets!
There will be winners and losers – here are examples:
Some home inspectors are notorious for having terrible bedside manner. In this case, the inspector mistakes worn-out carpet as a sloping floor, and scares the first-time buyer right out of escrow.
Giorgio’s movie is wrapping up – here is the trailer:
Cost per Square Foot is a documentary film project about the singular and perverse nature of the American housing economy. Though much has been written and filmed about the 2008 housing collapse, we seem to have failed to ask a fundamental question:
What is it that we are actually building?
This documentary attempts to answer that question. And in the process, it tell a larger story about housing in America that many people don’t know.
In the years since the US housing market became the epicenter of an unprecedented global economic collapse, protests in Baltimore, Ferguson, and Southside Chicago have highlighted the stark disparities of opportunity that define many American cities. These phenomena are not unrelated – they are divergent paths set in motion by postwar housing policy, a feat of social engineering that simultaneously created the world’s largest middle class, by directly subsidizing suburban development, while systematically depriving inner cities of resources and denying huge swaths of the US population the ability to build wealth through homeownership.
This was by design.
Cost per Square Foot is a historical road trip through the American housing landscape, in all its glory and all its blunder. The film invites viewers into a deeper conversation about our housing economy, one that addresses the fundamental issues of segregation, inequality, and financial instability. Through the stories of a retired NYC cop, a quietly socialist war bride, an aspiring Youtube star / realtor, and a young photographer whose photos of the Baltimore riots propel him into the national spotlight, Cost per Square Foot charts a course between the imagined wealth of seemingly endless “neo-taco-mediterranean special” suburban tract homes built atop razed orange groves, and the stark realities of life in many of America’s inner cities.
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Fixers aren’t very attractive at these prices.