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Category Archive: ‘Actives/Pendings’

NSDCC Actives/Pendings Ratio

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  Here are the latest ratios for the detached-home market from La Jolla to Carlsbad:

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are today’s Actives/Pendings for each area.  Except the ultra-highenders, we’re doing as well, or better, than in summertime!

Area
Zip Code
June Ratio
Aug Ratio
Dec Ratio
Actives/Pendings
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
9/8
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
39/31
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
94/50
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
20/16
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
31/24
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
54/11
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
95/52
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
177/40
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
214/34
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
19/7
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
84/47
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
886/327

Posted by on Dec 4, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

windansea

In June, we checked the local markets by comparing their active-to-pending ratios, which historically have been relatively ‘healthy’ when around 2.0.

Since then, the ratios in four of the eleven areas have improved (gone lower), including Del Mar, La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe – wow!

Area
Zip Code
June ACT/PEND
Aug ACT/PEND
June Ratio
Aug Ratio
Cardiff
92007
21/9
28/8
2.3
3.5
Carlsbad NW
92008
45/23
54/24
2.0
2.3
Carlsbad SE
92009
113/69
120/59
1.6
2.0
Carlsbad NE
92010
13/18
17/19
0.7
0.9
Carlsbad SW
92011
53/34
47/32
1.6
1.5
Del Mar
92014
73/23
68/27
3.2
2.5
Encinitas
92024
108/81
118/66
1.3
1.8
La Jolla
92037
221/46
215/49
4.8
4.4
RSF
92067
247/30
246/39
8.2
6.3
Solana Bch
92075
26/9
31/8
2.9
3.9
Carmel Vly
92130
132/80
116/64
1.5
1.8
All Above
All
1,052/428
1,060/395
2.5
2.7

Most importantly, there hasn’t been any explosions of additional active (unsold) inventory in a month when we usually see the peaks of the year.

Posted by on Aug 17, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

We figure a ‘healthy’ market has a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings.  Here is our last look at the actives/pendings ratio, from March 23rd:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

The market was humming along at the end of March, judging by how many areas have their A/P ratio under 2.0.

Today there are 17% more houses for sale, and 7% more pendings, which seems fairly healthy at a 2.46 ratio overall.  The majority of areas (6 of 11) are under 2.0 too, and to no one’s surprise, they are the cheaper areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
21
9
2.33
$1,650,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
45
23
1.96
$1,206,908
Carlsbad SE
92009
113
69
1.64
$1,250,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
13
18
0.72
$785,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
53
34
1.56
$1,149,000
Del Mar
92014
73
23
3.17
$2,475,000
Encinitas
92024
108
81
1.33
$1,650,000
La Jolla
92037
221
46
4.80
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
247
30
8.23
$3,199,000
Solana Bch
92075
26
9
2.89
$2,472,500
Carmel Vly
92130
132
86
1.53
$1,497,000
All Above
All
1,052
428
2.46
$2,098,500

Take out Rancho Santa Fe and the NSDCC overall ratio is 2.04!

Posted by on Jun 21, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Active/Pendings in March

KR logo

I like to compare the counts of active and pending listings to help determine the overall ‘health’ of the marketplace, and a 2:1 ratio always seemed to be ‘normal’, roughly.  Le’s compare the comparisons!

These are the counts from February 1, 2016:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Seven weeks later, and well into the selling season, there has been notable improvement!  Those in bold have had a surge of new pendings, and overall there are 57% more pendings today than seven weeks ago:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

If it weren’t for Rancho Santa Fe being a stick in the mud (median LP hasn’t budged either), we could say the entire NSDCC market is on fire.

Posted by on Mar 23, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

KR logo

We have been measuring the ‘health’ of a market by comparing the actives to pending listings, and figured that a 2:1 ratio was about right.  You can click on the ‘Actives/Pendings’ button below (next to date) to see the history.

But it looks like the day has come – that you have to spend at least a million dollars to buy a decent house near the coast:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Posted by on Feb 1, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 3 comments

NSDCC Actives:Pendings

From time to time we judge the current ‘health’ of the market by dividing the active listings by the pending listings.  For the record, it was Peter B. who agreed with me years ago that the healthy balance is around two actives to one pending.  The ‘months of inventory’ is derived from dividing the actives by the September solds.

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Mo. of Inv
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
13
15
0.86
1.9
$1,580,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
21
1.71
2.1
$1,024,500
Carlsbad SE
92009
107
52
2.06
1.8
$1,075,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
21
0.71
1.4
$753,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
52
21
2.48
2.5
$972,000
Del Mar
92014
59
23
2.57
4.5
$2,975,000
Encinitas
92024
100
68
1.47
2.8
$1,595,000
La Jolla
92037
190
44
4.32
8.3
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
29
8.00
12.9
$3,354,000
Solana Bch
92075
33
6
5.50
5.5
$1,745,000
Carmel Vly
92130
133
58
2.29
4.0
$1,299,000
All Above
All
970
358
2.71
4.0
$1,989,500

The 8-to-1 actives-to-pendings ratio and the 13 months of inventory in Rancho Santa Fe can probably classify it as a buyer’s market.  But even with our substantially higher prices, the other areas look fairly healthy.

Posted by on Oct 28, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Actives-to-Pendings Ratio

We’ve used the ratio of active-listings-to-pending-listings as a measure of the overall ‘health’ of the market, with a 2:1 ratio being about right.  This is how it looked earlier this year, on February 23, 2015:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2015/02/23/north-sd-activespendings/

The overall Actives-to-Pendings ratio in February was 1.69 to 1.

It is the same 1.69:1 today!

Here are the current stats – areas with more pendings than actives are in bold:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
16
11
31
$1,250,000
$644/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
51
29
67
$755,000
$527/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
121
93
189
$825,000
$323/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
26
54
$642,500
$320/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
39
38
77
$875,000
$364/sf
Del Mar
92014
58
23
64
$1,582,000
$740/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
68
180
$1,087,000
$458/sf
La Jolla
92037
185
44
150
$1,817,500
$790/sf
RSF
67+91
237
41
95
$2,550,000
$528/sf
Solana Bch
92075
15
11
39
$1,539,000
$682/sf
W. RB
92127
161
90
211
$855,000
$326/sf
E. RB
92128
62
85
200
$615,000
$326/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
54
59
151
$673,500
$318/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
116
80
154
$1,168,750
$400/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
51
56
119
$778,500
$333/sf
All Above
All
1,273
754
1,781
$887,500
$472/sf

Those with smaller sample sizes can vary wildly, yet most of these look fairly consistent.  As usual, Carmel Valley is really rocking – the 80 pendings have an average list price of $1,265,778!  Encinitas deserves recognition too for having 180 solds already this year with a median sales price of $1,087,000!

Posted by on May 26, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Market Check

The month of March is wrapping up next week, and we’re heading into the Easter/Spring Break period.  Local buyers who might take some time off will be offset by the out-of-towners coming in for a look.

The market seems very balanced currently, and our ‘market health’ gauge is supportive.

Historically, we’ve called it a healthy market when Active Listings-to-Pendings have been at a 2:1 ratio, and here’s the count today in North SD County’s coastal region:

Actives: 781

Pendings: 440

Ratio = 1:78:1

It’s the lower end of the market that is really hot.  Of the 440 pendings, 71% of them are listed under $1,500,000.

Only 37% of the actives are priced under $1,500,000!

While there has been a steady flow of new pendings, I haven’t seen many that were a surprise.  I think buyers are being patient, and are hoping that there will be better offerings later – much like sellers are hoping there will be higher-payers later.

Mortgage rates are holding steady too, which means April could be the month that those buyers and sellers who are in tip-toe mode come closer together!

rate check

Posted by on Mar 26, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Spring Kick | 0 comments

North SD Actives/Pendings

How ‘cooking’ is it?

In NE Carlsbad, Solana Beach, East Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos there are more houses pending than active – that’s scorching hot.

Places where the Actives-to-Pendings are better than a 2:1 ratio are doing well.

Here are the stats in different areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
18
13
6
$705,800
$609/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
19
13
$770,000
$625/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
75
53
49
$860,000
$310/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
21
9
$660,000
$311/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
27
20
$788,750
$362/sf
Del Mar
92014
62
19
14
$1,370,000
$583/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
59
42
$1,207,952
$463/sf
La Jolla
92037
156
51
41
$1,835,000
$774/sf
RSF
67+91
183
34
31
$2,700,000
$555/sf
Solana Bch
92075
16
25
8
$1,658,750
$816/sf
W. RB
92127
113
76
51
$988,000
$329/sf
E. RB
92128
65
70
39
$594,000
$325/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
37
54
28
$660,000
$317/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
84
54
28
$1,171,750
$394/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
43
35
20
$856,000
$300/sf
All Above
All
1,028
610
402
$938,337
$439/sf

We’re just getting started!

Posted by on Feb 23, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

lowrates

Back when we had a normal market, it was considered ‘balanced’ or ‘healthy’ to have a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings.  Now that the Fed’s QE is over, and mortgages are slightly easier to get, today’s environment is probably as close to normal as we’re going to get.

How are we doing?

With jumbo rates breaking records daily, there’s no surprise that the lower-end of NSDCC is scorching hot – and would be hotter if there were more decent houses for sale:

NSDCC House List Prices
Actives
Pendings
A/P Ratio
Median DOM
Under-$1,500,000
290
170
1.71:1
31
Over-$1,500,000
432
83
5.20:1
95

I think we can expect another full-out frenzy in the coming months – at least around those new lower-end listings that are within shouting range of the comps. You need an agent who can handle a bidding war – it is not a given!

Posted by on Jan 15, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments