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Category Archive: ‘Actives/Pendings’

Natalie Klinge

It was quite a day today, but hey, they’re all great days!  I think we are as busy as we’ve been all year, and for one reason.

Logic and common sense are returning to the market.

They are being fueled by Zillow and Trulia, because they are providing a baseline – some place to start the investigation.  Every person I meet has already looked at Zillow first!

Zillow is pouring it on too - they are spending $75 million this year on advertising!  I hear them every day on sports talk radio, and with all their headlines, they have become the household name for real estate.

What’s next for consumers?

I hope the combined effect of higher prices, thin inventory, and low rates causes more people – both buyers and sellers – to use the tools, and be more methodical about their decisions.  Work with agents who bring extra value – especially those who employ effective sales strategies.

When the frenzy was cooking, buyers just wanted to grab a house, and they fired at will.

Many of the prices paid didn’t have much relation to the easily-found comparable sales. But the gamble paid off – they are in, and have probably gained some equity.

But now that prices are up 20%, people are being more cautious and deliberate – which is a great sign for the future of the local market.

The logic setting in can be seen in our actitve-to-pending ratio:

NSDCC Detached-Homes (Carlsbad-La Jolla)

Price Range
Active Listings
Pending Listings
A/P Ratio
Under-$1M
260
164
1.6:1
Over-$1M
886
195
4.5:1

Make no mistake – the lower end is still on fire.  The higher-end folks tend to price their homes to sit.  There are 323 houses for sale listed over $3,000,000, and the average market time is 153 days (eating up the entire selling season and still not sold).

But forget the statistics.

Today was monumental for many due to the first day of school – and we are no different.  Kayla’s sister Natalie started her senior year of high school today, captain of the dance team and in charge of her destiny:

nat 2014

Posted by on Aug 18, 2014 in About Kayla, About the author, Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Frenzy Lite

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 market has been red hot as of late. But its inventory count grew 7% this week, and pricing and square footage also faltered. We’ll call it noise for now, and check again next week:

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf

Read More

Posted by on Mar 3, 2014 in Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Inventory | 1 comment

Selling Early

In the previous video, Brandi mentioned that sellers enjoy a real urgency early in their listing period.  Today’s market is a good example – because every decent buy gets snapped up right away, all new listings get immediate attention.

The North SD County coastal region has been hot up to around $1,400,000 - homes priced above that have a much different supply-and-demand curve.

Here are the current active and pending listings of NSDCC detached homes:

Price Range
# of ACT
# of PEND
A/P Ratio
PEND Median DOM
UNDER $1.4M
256
235
1.09
15
OVER $1.4M
527
106
4.97
52

On the lower end, literally half of the pendings found a buyer in the first 15 days on the market.

This dynamic can be used by both sellers and buyers.  Sellers who price sharply from the beginning can help create a fever pitch, and have a bidding war push the sales price higher.  Buyers who see homes on the market for more than 15 days know that something might be missing.

Posted by on Feb 19, 2014 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Tips, Advice & Links | 0 comments

Market Bifurcation

split marketWe’ve seen how our local market has been split, with the lower end being red hot, and the upper price range is, well, not hot. In talking to RSF agents yesterday, we agreed that the recent frenzy has yet to visit the Ranch.

Here are NSDCC active listings compared to those marked pending in the last 60 days (some of which have already sold).

List Prices
#Actives
$$-per-sf
#Pendings Last 60 Days
$$-per-sf
Under $1.4M
246
$430/sf
225
$412/sf
Over $1.4M
481
$874/sf
109
$716/sf

66% of the active listings are OVER $1,400,000, and 67% of the pendings are UNDER $1,400,000!

Statistically, the Under-$1.4 group looks very healthy, with almost 1:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings and only a 4% list-pricing gap between those pendings and not.

But the Over-$1.4 group is a mess, with almost 4x as many actives as pendings, and a 22% list-pricing gap between the actives and pendings!

They’re not going to give it away!

Posted by on Jan 22, 2014 in Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 8 comments

Encinitas McMansion

It’s probably just the holidays but there are a fair amount of the standard newer tract homes lying around these days.  The average pricing is grouped fairly close together between active and sold listings – it appears that buyers are just being very selective at what they are willing to buy now:

Encinitas Tract Houses Built since 1999 priced between $1M and $2M:

Active listings: 23 – with list prices averaging $366/sf

Pending listings: 9 – with list prices averaging $373/sf

Sold in last 90 days: 15 - at an average of $353/sf

Month’s supply: 4.6

Carlsbad Tract Houses Built since 1999 priced between $1M and $2M:

Active listings: 25 – with list prices averaging $353/sf

Pending listings: 12 – with list prices averaging $327/sf

Sold in last 90 days: 24 – at an average of $305/sf

Month’s supply: 3.1

Carmel Valley Tract Houses Built since 1999 priced between $1M and $2M:

Active listings: 24 – with list prices averaging $388/sf

Pending listings: 14 – with list prices averaging $392/sf

Sold in last 90 days: 26 – at an average of $376/sf

Month’s supply: 2.8

The sky isn’t falling, but buyers aren’t jumping at everything.  Here’s one that typifies – newer, larger, but with irritants: road noise, high fees, and smaller yard:

Posted by on Dec 19, 2013 in Actives/Pendings, Bubbleinfo TV, Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Short Sales Winding Down?

Fannie Mae’s new requirement that all HAFA short sales to be active on the MLS for at least five days amounts to shutting the barn door after the horses have escaped:

On or after August 1, 2013, all properties being considered for a standard short sale/HAFA II must be listed with an active status on a multiple listing service (MLS) for a minimum of five consecutive calendar days, including one weekend (i.e., Saturday and Sunday).

Insisting that the property be active on the MLS is easy to get around – agents who want to scam the system just won’t answer their phone for five days.

Lenders been requiring that short-sale participants sign an affidavit promising that the transaction is a legitimate arm’s-length deal, and has had open-market exposure. But shady realtors will sign those too – let’s face it, unless there is enforcement, rules and regs are meaningless.

But short sales appear to be winding down anyway. With lenders not threatening to foreclose, why short-sale?  Defaulters will just live for free.

Currently short sales are 3.2% of the inventory county-wide:

SD Co. Det & Att Listings
ACT
CONT
PEND
REOs
135
33
114
Short-sales
204
1,808
622
Non-REO/SS
5,966
54
4,300
Totals
6,305
1,895
5,036

With only 204 short-sales on the market, hopefully it means we are getting closer to the end – though they will likely stay around for years as a quiet alternative to the occasional foreclosure action.

On a side note, how about that active-to-pending ratio of 6,305:6,931? Any time that REOs and short-sales amount to less than 6% of the current inventory, and there are more pendings than actives you can say the market is in pretty good shape.

Contingents are similar to pendings; they probably have roughly the same chance of closing, because pendings are less of a sure bet at higher rates/prices.

Posted by on Jul 31, 2013 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Sales and Price Check, Short Sales, Short Selling | 1 comment

Faster and Higher

Realtors including myself say that we have “low inventory”, but it’s not because fewer sellers are listing – it’s because the heavy demand is gobbling them up faster, and at higher prices:

NSDCC Listings and Sales between Jan 1 and May 15

Year
Total Listings
Sales
Avg $$/sf
Avg DOM
2009
2,163
596
$399/sf
71
2010
2,167
837
$380/sf
73
2011
2,266
891
$374/sf
82
2012
1,910
991
$374/sf
84
2013
2,057
1,118
$405/sf
49

The sales amounted to only a quarter of the total listings in 2009, and this year they are half!

We know that the higher-end market is sluggish at best (there are 713 active listings over $1M). Here’s a look at the UNDER-$1,000,000 markets:

NSDCC UNDER-$1,000,000 – Actives and Pendings/Contingents

City or Area
#Actives
#Pend/Cont
Carlsbad
115
186
Carmel Vly
28
51
Del Mar/SB
6
11
Encinitas
19
59
La Jolla
10
9
RSF
1
3
Totals
179
319

On the street, it feels like the frenzy is slowing.  But until the ACT/PEND ratios get closer to a more normal 2:1 (or at least 1:1), the UNDER-$1,000,000 market will continue to be very competitive.

The lowball season usually starts in June, but there are only 23 active listings under $1,000,000 that have been listed for more than 60 days (out of 184)!

Posted by on May 21, 2013 in Actives/Pendings, Average DOM, Frenzy, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 1 comment

Under $1 Million Is Red Hot

An update on the Actives/Pendings report – does anyone remember when it was called the Jim Ratio? One day fellow realtor Peter B. agreed with me that a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings were a normal market, and boom, the Jim Ratio was born.

The Under-$1,000,000 market is scorching, with more pendings than active listings in every area!  The Over-$1,000,000 market is fairly healthy looking too, and better than it’s been has since we’ve kept track.

Detached-Home Listings UNDER $1,000,000

Town or Area Actives Pend/Cont A/P Ratio
Carmel Vly
16
42
0.38
Encinitas
17
44
0.39
Carlsbad
92
179
0.51
LJ/DM/RSF/SB
24
31
0.77
Totals
149
298
0.50

Detached-Home Listings OVER $1,000,000

Town or Area Actives Pend/Cont A/P Ratio
Carmel Vly
50
29
1.72
Encinitas
58
30
1.93
Carlsbad
47
19
2.47
LJ/DM/RSF/SB
383
92
4.16
Totals
538
170
3.16

Contingents make up 18% of the total Pend/Cont count, and are as good as pending these days when buyers who have been hanging on for months might reap a windfall of sudden appreciation. It is a feeding frenzy!

Posted by on Feb 12, 2013 in Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Market Buzz, Market Conditions | 3 comments

Temperature Gauge – Hot!

The lower-end looks like it is picking up speed, and those selling above $1,000,000 shouldn’t feel bad either.  Here are the active, contingent+pending, and sold listings for each area – the monthly sold count is the last six months of sales divided by 6.

Under-$1,000,000 Market

Town or Area Actives Cont+Pend Avg1Mo Sales Months’ of Inventory
Encinitas
14
52
25.3
0.55
Carmel Vly
17
33
24.5
0.69
Carlsbad
103
159
92.8
1.11
Del Mar/SB
14
14
7.3
1.92
La Jolla
14
12
6
2.33
RSF
0
3
8
0
Totals
163
273
157.3
1.04

Over-$1,000,000 Market

Town or Area Actives Cont+Pend Avg1Mo Sales Months’ of Inventory
Carlsbad
38
14
12
3.17
Carmel Vly
47
24
14.7
3.20
Encinitas
61
25
14.3
4.27
Del Mar/SB
68
21
15.2
4.47
La Jolla
109
39
21.3
5.12
RSF
185
30
18.8
9.84
Totals
508
153
96.3
5.28

The Over-$1,000,000 numbers are historically terrific, and sellers everywhere except in RSF should be jumping for joy.  The Under-$1,000,000 market, with only one-months’ worth of inventory and 1.67 times as many pendings as actives, is out of control and cooking!

When is the best time to sell?  When everyone else isn’t!

Posted by on Jan 26, 2013 in Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 8 comments

Actives/Pendings

We’ve compared active listings to pendings, and have seen how a 2:1 ratio is where a market seems healthy and balanced. Here are the active vs. contingent/pending listings of detached-homes:

Region/Area ACT listings C+P listings Ratio
NSDCC South
664
398
2.95:1
NSDCC North
209
244
0.86:1
SD County
3,086
4,435
0.70:1

The lower-end is cooking, and sellers are enjoying parades of shoppers during the first week of being on the market. Is it healthy and balanced to have more pendings than actives? Sellers think so!

Posted by on Jan 19, 2013 in Actives/Pendings, Market Buzz | 0 comments