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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Actives/Pendings’

Fannie/Freddie Limit up to $726,525

Today the FHFA announced that they have raised the Fannie/Freddie mortgage limit to $726,525 in high-cost areas:

Link to Article

With deductible mortgage interest now capped at $750,000 by the I.R.S., buyers who are concerned about write-offs will want to keep their new loan balance in the $700,000s.

The strict equation is $750,000/80% = $937,500.

If buyers find a house priced higher, they could come up with more cash to make up the difference, or they could get a jumbo loan at roughly the same interest rate and live with the non-deductible interest paid on the loan amount above $750,000.

It makes the ideal purchase price in the $1,000,000-$1,100,000 range.

If the tax reform is a big concern for buyers as some have suggested, the homes priced in the $1,100,000 – $1,500,000 might feel it.  Buyers above that range weren’t expecting as much benefit anyway, and probably won’t be as impacted – but theoretically there are fewer buyers the higher we go.

Out of curiosity, let’s keep an eye on the NSDCC stats.

Today’s NSDCC Actives and Pendings:

$700,000-$1,100,000: 121/72 = 1.68

$1,100,000-$1,500,000: 157/75 = 2.09

$1,500,000-$2,500,000: 243/81 = 3.00

$2,500,000 and higher: 399/44 = 9.07

The market has been healthy up to $1,500,000 roughly, and like Rob Dawg said yesterday, potential buyers may not know the exact impact of the tax reform until they start on their 2018 tax returns in spring.

Let’s come back then and check for impact!

Posted by on Nov 27, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Tax Reform | 4 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97
July 16, 2018
973
357
1,330
2.73
Oct 28, 2018
985
297
1,282
3.31

NSDCC Actives Median Price = $2,250,000

NSDCC Pendings Median Price = $1,399,000

Only 12% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 33% are over $3,000,000 (was 10% and 35% last reading). You could say pricing has slid down 2% since July, but pricing stats are just good for trend-watching over the long haul.

The 3.31 ratio is the highest on the chart, and if it was due to an explosion of active (unsold) listings, it would be more troubling. If more homeowners were nervous, we’d see a higher total of listings today, instead of waiting for spring.

The areas in red have had prices go up too fast, and sellers are holding out.

Areas circled in green are active and healthy.

The Del Mar and Solana Beach samples are smaller and will be more volatile.

Posted by on Oct 28, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The total number of pendings went up 2% this week, and the number of closed sales for the first half of October (116) is higher than last year (114).

Statistically, the market is ‘fine’ up to the $1,600,000s.

The actives/pendings count for NSDCC listings priced under $1,650,000 is 355/183, or almost exactly the 2:1 ratio we use to describe a healthy market.

It may feel like a bit of a struggle now, but the distractions have just begun.  Halloween is next week!

Read More

Posted by on Oct 22, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

But all in all, we’re in pretty good shape today.

The active inventory hasn’t exploded, and as long as the supply stays in check, the sellers aren’t going to panic.  Do the buyers have the willingness and ability to wait it out, with no assurance it will ever get better?  Or will the lack of solid evidence keep the ball rolling, albeit at a slower pace?

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97
July 16, 2018
973
357
1,330
2.73

NSDCC Actives Median Price = $2,288,045

NSDCC Pendings Median Price = $1,395,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000 (which are the same ratios as the last reading in April, 2017).

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area:

Area
Zip Code
June
Aug
Dec
Apr
Act/Pend Today
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
1.0
2.5
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
1.2
2.9
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
1.0
1.3
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
0.9
1.1
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
2.4
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
3.3
9.4
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.6
2.0
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
3.7
4.4
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
5.2
4.6
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
1.5
2.0
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.1
1.9
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.0
2.7

These stats are going to bounce around, so there isn’t anything here that gets me overly concerned.

Del Mar has always been a smaller, expensive subset (just eight pendings today), La Jolla is in line with their recent past, and RSF is as good as it’s been in years. Everything else is around the regular 2.0 ratio for a normal market.

Posted by on Jul 16, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

Last week we saw that the current inventory ranges from 1.3 months’ worth on the lower-end, to more than 10 months on the high end.

Another gauge we’ve used is to compare the active listings to the pendings, which also shows a similar condition.  It’s been red hot on the lower-end, and not so much on the high end.

In normal markets in the past, the active listings have out-numbered the pendings by a 2:1 ratio.  Today, the mid-ranges look fairly normal:

Price Range
NSDCC Actives
Pendings
Actives/Pendings Ratio
$0-$1M
81
91
0.89 to 1
$1M-$1.5M
199
142
1.4 to 1
$1.5M-$2M
158
83
1.9 to 1
$2M+
502
99
5.1 to 1

Here’s another way to look at it:

More than half (55%) of the active inventory is listed over $2,000,000, and about three-quarters of the pendings (77%) are listed under $2 million!

Read More

Posted by on Jun 11, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

We’ve said that the low-end of each market has been hopping – look at the market for houses priced under $1,500,000 between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

The NSDCC Under-$1,500,000 Market

Active listings: 135  Pending listings: 128

The actives-to-pendings ratio of nearly 1:1 is impressive.  The higher-end market is moving too – having this many pendings as we are coming into the selling season looks like a good start:

The NSDCC Over-$1,500,000 Market

Active listings: 460  Pending listings: 86

Most of the people who came to the open house on Saturday were just beginning their search.  I think it’s going to be a good year!

Read More

Posted by on Jan 15, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97

Considering that we have record-high pricing in most areas, it is phenomenal to see so many pendings – and so few actives!

Actives Median Price = $2,350,000

Pendings Median Price = $1,299,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000!

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area.  If you remove La Jolla and RSF, the A/P = 432/336, or 1.29 to 1!

Area
Zip Code
June
Aug
Dec
Act/Pend Today
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
15/15 = 1.0
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
40/34 = 1.2
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
73/74 = 1.0
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
23/25 = 0.9
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
26/24 = 1.1
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
63/19 = 3.3
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
87/55 = 1.6
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
172/46 = 3.7
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
207/40 = 5.2
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
19/13 = 1.5
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
86/77 = 1.1
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
842/427 = 2.0

WOW!

Posted by on Apr 21, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Freeze-Dried Frenzy

The market is sizzling, and it could kick up to another level if there were just more homes to sell! Here is a comparison of today’s inventory to previous years (the lower-end is selling fast!):

NSDCC Active Inventory – Second Week of April

Year
$0-$800K
$800K-$1400K
$1400-$2400K
$2400K+
Total
2014
97
233
233
349
912
2015
65
220
218
346
849
2016
37
235
260
447
979
2017
28
168
235
386
817

NSDCC Pendings Today

PEND
$0-$800K
$800K-$1.4M
$1.4M-$2.4M
$2.4M+
Total
4/10/17
38
202
126
69
427

Without more homes to sell, it’s like a freeze-dried frenzy on the lower end – very dry but it’ll keep you alive!

From cnbc.com:

Anyone eager to buy a home this spring probably has reasons to feel good. The job market is solid. Average pay is rising. And mortgage rates, even after edging up of late, are still near historic lows.

And then there’s the bad news: Just try to find a house.

The national supply of homes for sale hasn’t been this thin in nearly 20 years. And over the past year, the steepest drop in supply has occurred among homes that are typically most affordable for first-time buyers and in markets where prices have risen sharply.

In markets like San Diego, Boston and Seattle, competition for a dwindling supply has escalated along with pressure to offer more money and accept less favorable terms.

“Sellers will have the edge again this year,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for Trulia, a real estate data provider. “Homebuyers are really going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as housing choice is concerned.”

The intensity of the competition this spring has surprised even sellers like Kathleen Mulcahy, a 37-year-old product manager in Seattle.

Within a week of listing her one-bedroom, one-bath condo, Mulcahy received 21 offers – all above her asking price of $398,000. Most of the offers came with built-in triggers to automatically rise in case a rival bidder sweetened a bid. In the end, she accepted an offer of $500,000 – all cash.

“A lot more than I expected,” Mulcahy said.

Yet the changed landscape cuts both ways: Facing higher prices and competition herself, Mulcahy has decided for now to put off buying another home.

“There’s very little available, and it’s just too expensive right now, so I’m going to wait,” she said. “I’ll probably rent for two or three years.”

About 1.75 million homes were for sale nationally at the end of February, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s down 6.4 percent from a year earlier and only slightly up from January, when listings reached their lowest point since the association began tracking them in 1999. All told, the supply of homes for sale has fallen on an annual basis for the past 21 months.

Read full article here:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/mission-nearly-impossible-this-spring-finding-a-home-to-buy.html

Posted by on Apr 10, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments