Menu
TwitterRssFacebook
More Links

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘Actives/Pendings’

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97

Considering that we have record-high pricing in most areas, it is phenomenal to see so many pendings – and so few actives!

Actives Median Price = $2,350,000

Pendings Median Price = $1,299,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000!

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area.  If you remove La Jolla and RSF, the A/P = 432/336, or 1.29 to 1!

Area
Zip Code
June
Aug
Dec
Act/Pend Today
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
15/15 = 1.0
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
40/34 = 1.2
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
73/74 = 1.0
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
23/25 = 0.9
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
26/24 = 1.1
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
63/19 = 3.3
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
87/55 = 1.6
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
172/46 = 3.7
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
207/40 = 5.2
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
19/13 = 1.5
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
86/77 = 1.1
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
842/427 = 2.0

WOW!

Posted by on Apr 21, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Freeze-Dried Frenzy

The market is sizzling, and it could kick up to another level if there were just more homes to sell! Here is a comparison of today’s inventory to previous years (the lower-end is selling fast!):

NSDCC Active Inventory – Second Week of April

Year
$0-$800K
$800K-$1400K
$1400-$2400K
$2400K+
Total
2014
97
233
233
349
912
2015
65
220
218
346
849
2016
37
235
260
447
979
2017
28
168
235
386
817

NSDCC Pendings Today

PEND
$0-$800K
$800K-$1.4M
$1.4M-$2.4M
$2.4M+
Total
4/10/17
38
202
126
69
427

Without more homes to sell, it’s like a freeze-dried frenzy on the lower end – very dry but it’ll keep you alive!

From cnbc.com:

Anyone eager to buy a home this spring probably has reasons to feel good. The job market is solid. Average pay is rising. And mortgage rates, even after edging up of late, are still near historic lows.

And then there’s the bad news: Just try to find a house.

The national supply of homes for sale hasn’t been this thin in nearly 20 years. And over the past year, the steepest drop in supply has occurred among homes that are typically most affordable for first-time buyers and in markets where prices have risen sharply.

In markets like San Diego, Boston and Seattle, competition for a dwindling supply has escalated along with pressure to offer more money and accept less favorable terms.

“Sellers will have the edge again this year,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for Trulia, a real estate data provider. “Homebuyers are really going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as housing choice is concerned.”

The intensity of the competition this spring has surprised even sellers like Kathleen Mulcahy, a 37-year-old product manager in Seattle.

Within a week of listing her one-bedroom, one-bath condo, Mulcahy received 21 offers – all above her asking price of $398,000. Most of the offers came with built-in triggers to automatically rise in case a rival bidder sweetened a bid. In the end, she accepted an offer of $500,000 – all cash.

“A lot more than I expected,” Mulcahy said.

Yet the changed landscape cuts both ways: Facing higher prices and competition herself, Mulcahy has decided for now to put off buying another home.

“There’s very little available, and it’s just too expensive right now, so I’m going to wait,” she said. “I’ll probably rent for two or three years.”

About 1.75 million homes were for sale nationally at the end of February, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s down 6.4 percent from a year earlier and only slightly up from January, when listings reached their lowest point since the association began tracking them in 1999. All told, the supply of homes for sale has fallen on an annual basis for the past 21 months.

Read full article here:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/mission-nearly-impossible-this-spring-finding-a-home-to-buy.html

Posted by on Apr 10, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Red Hot

Let’s use the $1,400,000 price point to show how hot the lower-end market is between Carlsbad and La Jolla.  When the active and pending listings are running at a 2 to 1 clip, I consider the market to be relatively healthy – and when you look at our overall market, we are about there:

NSDCC Listings

Listing Status
Number of Listings
Median List Price
Avg DOM
Actives
807
$2,395,000
88
Pendings
391
$1,277,900
62

The Actives:Pendings ratio = 2.08, which is a good start to the selling season.

But when we separate into two sets of data, it is easy to see where the market has been blistering hot:

NSDCC Listings Priced at $1,400,000 and Above:

Listing Status
Number of Listings
Median List Price
Avg DOM
Actives
620
$2,898,000
101
Pendings
165
$2,095,000
88

The Actives:Pendings ratio is 3.76 for the high-enders, which is pretty good, relatively-speaking – it has been much higher in the past.

But let’s look at the lower-end:

NSDCC Listings Priced at $1,400,000 and Below:

Listing Status
Number of Listings
Median List Price
Avg DOM
Actives
198
$1,049,950
49
Pendings
231
$979,000
42

The Actives:Pendings ratio is 0.86 – the lower-end has 33 more pendings than actives, and it’s only March 14th! The 42 average days on market could be seen as the average time it takes for the market to catch up to your price – quick!

Posted by on Mar 14, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 0 comments

More Spring Selling Season Preview

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!

NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71
Feb 4, 2017
758
309
2.45

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:

February 1, 2016

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season!  Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!

February 4, 2017

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
13
7
1.86
$1,595,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
32
18
1.78
$1,146,500
Carlsbad SE
92009
70
51
1.37
$1,169,500
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
15
1.00
$859,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
31
20
1.55
$1,159,000
Del Mar
92014
54
17
3.18
$2,849,500
Encinitas
92024
74
37
2.00
$1,772,500
La Jolla
92037
151
35
4.31
$3,295,000
RSF
92067
194
43
4.51
$3,330,500
Solana Bch
92075
20
5
4.00
$2,075,000
Carmel Vly
92130
64
55
1.16
$1,731,250
All Above
All
758
309
2.45
$2,435,990

Posted by on Feb 4, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings Ratio

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  Here are the latest ratios for the detached-home market from La Jolla to Carlsbad:

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are today’s Actives/Pendings for each area.  Except the ultra-highenders, we’re doing as well, or better, than in summertime!

Area
Zip Code
June Ratio
Aug Ratio
Dec Ratio
Actives/Pendings
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
9/8
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
39/31
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
94/50
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
20/16
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
31/24
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
54/11
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
95/52
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
177/40
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
214/34
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
19/7
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
84/47
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
886/327

Posted by on Dec 4, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

windansea

In June, we checked the local markets by comparing their active-to-pending ratios, which historically have been relatively ‘healthy’ when around 2.0.

Since then, the ratios in four of the eleven areas have improved (gone lower), including Del Mar, La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe – wow!

Area
Zip Code
June ACT/PEND
Aug ACT/PEND
June Ratio
Aug Ratio
Cardiff
92007
21/9
28/8
2.3
3.5
Carlsbad NW
92008
45/23
54/24
2.0
2.3
Carlsbad SE
92009
113/69
120/59
1.6
2.0
Carlsbad NE
92010
13/18
17/19
0.7
0.9
Carlsbad SW
92011
53/34
47/32
1.6
1.5
Del Mar
92014
73/23
68/27
3.2
2.5
Encinitas
92024
108/81
118/66
1.3
1.8
La Jolla
92037
221/46
215/49
4.8
4.4
RSF
92067
247/30
246/39
8.2
6.3
Solana Bch
92075
26/9
31/8
2.9
3.9
Carmel Vly
92130
132/80
116/64
1.5
1.8
All Above
All
1,052/428
1,060/395
2.5
2.7

Most importantly, there hasn’t been any explosions of additional active (unsold) inventory in a month when we usually see the peaks of the year.

Posted by on Aug 17, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

We figure a ‘healthy’ market has a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings.  Here is our last look at the actives/pendings ratio, from March 23rd:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

The market was humming along at the end of March, judging by how many areas have their A/P ratio under 2.0.

Today there are 17% more houses for sale, and 7% more pendings, which seems fairly healthy at a 2.46 ratio overall.  The majority of areas (6 of 11) are under 2.0 too, and to no one’s surprise, they are the cheaper areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
21
9
2.33
$1,650,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
45
23
1.96
$1,206,908
Carlsbad SE
92009
113
69
1.64
$1,250,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
13
18
0.72
$785,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
53
34
1.56
$1,149,000
Del Mar
92014
73
23
3.17
$2,475,000
Encinitas
92024
108
81
1.33
$1,650,000
La Jolla
92037
221
46
4.80
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
247
30
8.23
$3,199,000
Solana Bch
92075
26
9
2.89
$2,472,500
Carmel Vly
92130
132
86
1.53
$1,497,000
All Above
All
1,052
428
2.46
$2,098,500

Take out Rancho Santa Fe and the NSDCC overall ratio is 2.04!

Posted by on Jun 21, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Active/Pendings in March

KR logo

I like to compare the counts of active and pending listings to help determine the overall ‘health’ of the marketplace, and a 2:1 ratio always seemed to be ‘normal’, roughly.  Le’s compare the comparisons!

These are the counts from February 1, 2016:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Seven weeks later, and well into the selling season, there has been notable improvement!  Those in bold have had a surge of new pendings, and overall there are 57% more pendings today than seven weeks ago:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

If it weren’t for Rancho Santa Fe being a stick in the mud (median LP hasn’t budged either), we could say the entire NSDCC market is on fire.

Posted by on Mar 23, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

KR logo

We have been measuring the ‘health’ of a market by comparing the actives to pending listings, and figured that a 2:1 ratio was about right.  You can click on the ‘Actives/Pendings’ button below (next to date) to see the history.

But it looks like the day has come – that you have to spend at least a million dollars to buy a decent house near the coast:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Posted by on Feb 1, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 3 comments