Frenzy Monitor

There are 27% more active listings today than there were last March – without much increase in the number of pendings – though the areas in red above are just as hot as they were last year at this time.

Judging by the number of active (unsold) listings compared to the totals though, sales are more sluggish now than in any year since 2019 when we had 90 actives priced under $1 million (today there are none):

NSDCC Total Listings Jan 1 to Mar 10 and Active Listings in Mid-March

Last year, we didn’t have 335 actives until the end of May!

Sellers will call it normalizing, and buyers will wonder how much more normal will it get!

It’s doubtful that today’s buyers are remembering 2019 though, and if anything they are comparing to last year – and looking for any reason not to buy. If the active count keeps rising, it’s going to look like a glut in a couple of months.

Our New Listing in Terramar!

5450 Los Robles Drive, Carlsbad

3 br/2 ba, 2,700sf

YB: 1976

7,200sf lot

No HOA or Mello-Roos fees

LP = $2,900,000

Open 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday, March 16&17.

Check out this ultimate retro-mod beach house at the quiet end of Los Robles Drive and at the highest point in Terramar, which means ocean and sunset views to the west, and flower-field views to the east! Wide-open floor plan with massive kitchen that has high ceilings and skylight, new light-tan colored hardwood floors, new roof, two fireplaces, bedroom/bath on ground floor, killer primary suite with big walk-in closet, and a fantastic backyard with sauna too! Forget those three-story sterile boxes – come dig this ultra-cool beach classic and enjoy the sights and sounds of the liquid blue enchantress just 100 yards away! Plus you have the private Terramar landing on Shore Drive too (last two photos).


If you prefer a single-level, this is for sale down the street: LINK

SD County Tax Sale

Registration for the San Diego County Tax Sale ends tomorrow! Of the 396 properties that will be auctioned off between March 22-27, this one is the most exciting. The owner had cashed out $1,460,000 back in the heyday of 2007-2008, and they were in foreclosure in 2020 but nothing came of it. They probably still owe enough that they can’t, or won’t get right with it in time to beat the auction:

This one at the top of the hill in Carlsbad has been vacant for years, and would have been the buy of the century because it has no mortgages. But it got redeemed just in time:

https://sdttc.mytaxsale.com/doc/tax_deed/instructions

San Diego is #180

From the U-T:

San Diego County has very little chance of a big housing downturn but also isn’t exactly the most secure market in the nation, according to a new report.

Out of 580 counties, San Diego County was the No. 180 most likely to experience a downturn, said a study from Irvine-based real estate researchers Attom. It used a variety of factors to determine the rankings, including foreclosures, percentage of homes underwater, income-to-cost ratio and local unemployment numbers.

The counties with the biggest chance of a downturn were in inland California and areas around Chicago and New York City. San Joaquin County, home to cities Stockton and Lodi, was considered the most likely spot in the nation for a downturn, Attom said. In that area of California at the end of 2023, it took 65 percent of income to pay for a home, unemployment was among the highest in the state at 6.4 percent, 7.5 percent of buyers were in homes that cost more than they were now worth and other factors.

Broken down by the 20 most-populated counties, San Diego County ranked 12th most likely for a downturn. Kings County, home to Brooklyn, was most likely and Miami-Dade County the least likely.

Here’s how San Diego County compared to the rest of the nation:

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Inventory Watch

The NSDCC houses for sale have had a median list price over $4,000,000 all year.

How is the upper half of the market performing?

While the $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 market has seen continued upward pressure on pricing (click below on more…), the $4,000,000+ list pricing has been correcting – and it’s working!

The average LP/sf has dropped 10% since January, and the number of active (unsold) listings is trickling up. But the average days-on-market is settling down, and the number of pendings look great. There have already been 42 NSDCC sales closed this year over $4,000,000!

Fun fact:

NSDCC Active Listings Priced Over $10,000,000 Today: 46

NSDCC Listings Sold Over $10,000,000, Last 12 Months: 43

It is a very affluent marketplace!

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Carmel Valley’s Hot Start

Above are the 2024 listings that have already closed escrow in Carmel Valley – it’s very competitive.

We’re heading into a new era where buyer-agents will be appreciated less than ever, if at all.

Consider this – in a bidding war where the sellers listing agent will be choosing between similar offers, won’t having a solid, reputable buyer’s agent on your side be helpful?

Not only will the buyer get strategic advice on making a more-lucrative offer, but the buyer-agent’s reputation will also play a role in the outcome. The listing agent will want to select a deal that has the best chance of closing easily, and their comfort and familarity with the buyer-agent will make a difference here in a tight race!

ADU Update

An interview with California state assembly member Phil Ting, the author of the $40,000 ADU grants, and the sponsor of many ADU bills in California. He authored AB 1033, which clarifies that anyone who wants to sell their ADU must file a condo map with the state. Turning your house + granny flat into a 2-unit condo will be the only way to get regular mortgages and title insurance so they can be sold separately, but it’s a major undertaking – how many people will process with a condo map?

Hat tip to Jorge for sending this in!

Carlsbad is $2,000,000+

Earlier today we saw how $2,000,000 sure doesn’t go as far as it used to. Once you think your home’s value is above $1,500,000, it’s a quick jump to $2,000,000 – and if you go to sell it, then a net of $2,000,000 sounds even better. Buy any decent coastal house you can get your hands on for less than $2 million!

For the trivia buffs who remember that this house below has history – it sold for less than $1,000,000….3x!

Today’s list price is $2,250,000, and it’s now pending!

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