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Boomers Survey

This survey is dated 2014, and they should update it every year – or at least until I’m right about having a boomer liquidation sale coming down the pike!

This survey asks several different questions, but notice how 20% to 30% of the responses seemed to divulge some stress or uncertainty about their future:




Uh-oh.  It looks like this homeownership thing could be a boomer addiction:



It’s still early in the game for most boomers.

But here’s where the game changers start to come out.  Only 58% don’t plan to sell?  Fine, they aren’t going to make the market – it’s the other 42% that will determine our real estate future:


Fluff question below – of course we like our home, at least until selling it becomes a better idea:


Almost a quarter of boomers know they are already short on income, and will be hitting the housing ATM.  How many others who didn’t expect to use their equity in 2014 will eventually need to cash out for various reasons?


Here’s where the real trouble starts below – 46%???





The best question towards the end of the survey once respondents have loosened up – and lo and behold, 61% of boomers aren’t sleeping that well.

If it only ends up being 20% to 30% of boomers who make a move, that’s still at least 15 million people in America who will be deciding our market!

The biggest concern?

Elderly folks who haven’t moved in a generation (or two), who know their money is running out and happen to see a couple of lower-priced sales nearby.  In a effort to bank as much equity as possible, they hit the panic button and grab the first realtor they find who then dumps their house for 95% of value.

It’s a downward spiral that could pick up steam quickly.

Posted by on Oct 12, 2015 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, This Is America, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

2016 Real Estate Forecast

The California Association of Realtors published their 2016 Forecast last week, and it’s a whopper – 131 pages (scroll down to bottom of page for full report).

Here are the highlights:


2015 forecast

2015 where are we

where is the inventory

yty prices by county

San Diego County prices and sales are positive, which is a healthy sign.  The median sales price was up 9.1%, and the number of sales increased 11.5%.

I’m going to take the under for 2016, and guess that we’ll have fewer SD sales next year, mostly because on the remaining graphs below:

socal prices

socal sales

fewer adults

international buyers

multiple offers

years owned

2015 EXPO Forecast Final

Posted by on Oct 12, 2015 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 10 comments

Inventory Watch


We had 24% fewer listings hit the market than last week, but one more pending!  With mortgage rates back in the threes, buyers are scrambling to see what they can get before the holidays.

We’ve been busier in the last week than it’s been all year!  Kayla did her first open house without me – and came fully prepared with her notes – plus Donna worked eight hours in the field on Saturday!

I gotta get them more involved with the blog!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Oct 12, 2015 in About Kayla, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Kayla Training | 0 comments

Open House

open houses

Agents who say that open houses are a waste of time either fall asleep while watching the game on TV, or have never done an open house for a listing that was priced right:

Despite all the changes technology has made in how houses are bought and sold, one standard feature of the process remains: the Sunday open house.

Shortly after a house goes on the market, the listing agent will set aside a Sunday afternoon to welcome prospective buyers (plus nosy neighbors) to see the house at its best.

But has the open house gone the way of the landline and outlived its usefulness? It depends whom you ask. Some agents believe modern life has rendered open houses unnecessary, while others believe they are more important than ever.

“It’s very, very important you have open houses, especially the first few weeks when [the home is] on the market,” says Steven Aaron, head of the Steven Aaron Realtor Group at Keller Williams Beverly Hills. “It makes it convenient for the buyers to come and see the house without an appointment.

Craig McClelland, COO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Metro Brokers in Atlanta, agrees about the importance of open houses.

“I think it’s a great way to expose the house to people who are driving around,” McClelland says. “People want that instant gratification. … People want to see it now.”

Read full article here:

Posted by on Oct 10, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Carlsbad New


The new development at Cannon and El Camino Real in NE Carlsbad is taking shape, though the first move-ins won’t be until mid-2016 – and the high-enders won’t be until 2017.  But in the meantime, these houses will occupy the minds of buyers, so any sellers nearby will be affected.

In SE Carlsbad, we saw how Davidson’s Arterro tract helped to elevate prices throughout La Costa Oaks.  But those were all similar and newer McMansions – the older homes near RR will take a backseat to the new stock.


When first announced as a 672-home development, it sounded huge – but less than half are houses.  There are 308 single-family homes, 364 condominiums, 175,000 square feet of commercial development and 88 acres of open space including five neighborhood parks.

The condos are being called apartments, and are in the gray area on the map.  Like many builders, they are probably hoping to rent them for ten years, and then sell them later to avoid any construction-defect lawsuits.  But that high-density look will be interesting right in the middle of higher-end houses.

4 neighborhoods

There is a little something for everyone – and that’s probably good because the builder has had over 4,000 inquiries so far:

The Ridge will be 1,600sf to 3,000sf houses, but those lots look smaller.  Prices start in the mid-$600,000s, and they will be opening in Spring, 2016.

The Vistas will be 2,100sf to 3,900sf, and start in the $700,000s, but I think most will be in the $800,000s and $900,000s.  They’ve gotten started on a piece of the existing neighborhood in the bottom right corner on the map and are taking reservations.

The Terraces will be 2,900sf to 4,600sf houses on lots that will average 6,000sf.  They will start in the mid-$900,000s, and be opening n Summer, 2016.

The Bluffs will be the big bombers on the hill, though no ocean view.  The houses will be 3,200sf to 4,900sf on lots that average 8,500sf.  Prices aren’t announced yet, but should be over a million.


You can see here that the lots in the Vistas are brief.  This is a 3,900sf house going on a lot with a 15-ft. backyard – max.  It is 11.2-ft on the other side, and I think that includes the slope.  The price is $934,995.

15ft backyard

Click on the photos to enlarge the images.

Posted by on Oct 9, 2015 in Builders, Carlsbad, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

Sentiment Index


Only 1,003 people surveyed but they were asked 100 questions.  From MND:

In case you missed it, last month Fannie Mae began to transition the multi-graph and narrative report detailing results of its National Housing Survey (NHS) into a different format, the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI).  The Index distills responses to six survey questions about consumers’ home purchase sentiment into a single number which the company says “reflects current and forward-looking housing market outcomes and complements existing data sources to inform housing related analysis and decision making.”

The HPSI summarizes consumers attitudes about whether it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.

Read full article here:

Posted by on Oct 8, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 0 comments

Agents Switching Firms


The grass always looks greener somewhere else. From

The hottest free agents this season are real-estate agents.

In pursuit of more deals and commissions, real-estate agents—most of whom are independent contractors—are increasingly switching brokerage firms. And just like in the big leagues, when these players move, egos can clash.

“There’s not a lot of brand loyalty,” said Billy Rose, an agent and co-founder of the Agency in Beverly Hills, Calif. “A lot of times they become mercenaries,” he said about agents, because they’re getting recruitment offers all the time.

Jen Winston left Hilton & Hyland last October to join the Agency. For her, one of the biggest factors was marketing support. Whereas many brokerages may have one or two dedicated marketing people, the Agency has a team of 20 to do everything from posting listing photos online to sending branded bottles of Pinot Noir to clients—all of which frees agents to close more deals.

Ms. Winston, 30, entered real estate in 2012. She said she appreciates the culture at the firm, where agents are collaborative and share commissions. “A little bit of something is better than all of nothing,” she said.

Before the move, she said she earned “just under six figures” as an assistant to more senior agents. Now, with an estimated annual sales volume of $25 million, she says she will triple her income. Hilton & Hyland declined to comment.

Read full article here:

Posted by on Oct 7, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Realtor, Realtors Talking Shop | 0 comments



Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this story:

Rebecca Mairone scarcely deserves a mention in the annals of finance, except for this: She’s the only executive of a major U.S. mortgage lender found liable for her part in the 2008 financial crisis.

Mairone was chief operating officer for a division of Countrywide Financial Corp., the California giant that came to symbolize the excesses of the subprime era. While top executives there and elsewhere walked away, Mairone, now 48, was targeted in a civil case by federal prosecutors. In October 2013, a Manhattan jury found her liable for misrepresenting the quality of mortgages her company sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff called her testimony “implausible” and slapped her with a $1 million fine. Bloggers said she helped destroy the U.S. economy and should be jailed or worse.

Two years later, Mairone is heading back to court in an attempt to overturn that ruling and restore her reputation. As she has all along, she maintains she did nothing wrong. Years after the housing bust, her case reminds Americans yet again that not a single senior executive has been held accountable for a mortgage meltdown that cost millions of people their homes, livelihoods and savings.

“She’s not uniquely responsible,” said Brad Miller, a Democratic congressman from North Carolina from 2003 to 2013 who served on the House Financial Services Committee. “But the question isn’t whether there should’ve been a claim brought against Rebecca Mairone. It’s why weren’t a lot more brought?”

Read the full article here:

Posted by on Oct 6, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage Lawsuits, Mortgage News | 2 comments