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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Posted by on Jan 2, 2019 in Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 29 comments | Print Print

Padres Contest

Big Papi’s last game in SD

Would you like some guidance on what to expect in the Spring Selling Season?

Let’s monitor how many new NSDCC listings are hitting the market!

If the negative media hype is starting to worry sellers, they will hurry up and list their home early.  If we see a surge of new listings in the first two months of the year, it means a buyers’ market is forming.

If we have about the same or fewer listings in early 2019, then sellers will just shrug off any concerns and wait their turn.

Here are the counts of listings inputted onto the MLS in January and February from the last few years:

NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb

Year
Jan+Feb Listings
Median List Price
Median DOM
2012
794
$954,500
88
2013
785
$1,130,000
37
2014
802
$1,295,000
42
2015
821
$1,345,000
37
2016
917
$1,489,900
46
2017
787
$1,499,876
38
2018
782
$1,599,000
35

The average is 813 listings, and with the last two years both being lower, it would take a significant YoY increase to worry most participants. But at least we’ll know first!

Put your guess in the comment section of how many new listings we’ll have in January and February, and on March 15th we’ll see who is closest.

The winner will get four tickets to a Padres game! The photos here were taken from the seats, and I’ll have about ten dates available.

Larry Baer, CEO of the SF Giants

29 Comments

  1. I’m thinking that sellers will want to cash out and go home, somewhere other than California!

    NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb; 838

    Go Padres! 🙂

  2. Jan=913
    Feb=1017

  3. Rob – 1,930?? That’s a full meltdown!

    The blog would be on fire if it happens – everyone would want an explanation.

  4. Oops misread
    Jan/Feb = 1017

    Still believe a meltdown is in the horizon. Figure a lot of homes that dropped off the radar or been hanging out to dry in 2018 are going to renew their listings early this year. Buyers need a solid reason to buy other than a home is an investment and prices go up forever. Throw in the likelihood Trump shuts down the border even for a few days and San Diego is going to suffer a blow that will take years to come back from.

  5. 799

  6. My kids are convinced the Padres are landing Syndergaard, Kluber and have a good shot at Harper. I’ll be happy if they don’t raise the price of beer!!

    Players the Padres have been linked to in rumor

    Seems slow as molasses so I’m going with 15% uptick from Dec and guess 845.

  7. Was in Fenway this October for the hoisting of the ALCS banner. Season before that was in the right field bleachers (Fenway) when Papi slammed a line drive that bounced on the warning track and landed about 20 rows back straight at us.

    Any of those tix for Red Sox? 😉

    new listings we’ll have in January and February

    889
    955
    Quad digits by May and then a tapering.

  8. My kids are convinced the Padres are landing Syndergaard, Kluber and have a good shot at Harper.

    Except none of those guys want to play for the Padres.

    We’ll never pay enough to get the big guns, and any trades would be like the last Kemp deal where we get a bloated aging star past his prime plus had to give up Yasmani Grandal plus two of our prospects. Kemp got paid $13 million for two years of service, and hit .265 – and the Padres still haven’t sniffed the playoffs.

    Go figure this one:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/padres-sign-garrett-richards.html

  9. 785

  10. I’m gonna say we have a slight pick up Jan/Feb but nothing crazy. 864 average. You didn’t specify each month guess or an average. But went with average as that’s what you used in the chart.

  11. I didn’t make it clear.

    The combined total of listings inputted Jan 1 – Feb 28.

    For those who are curious, the breakdown last year was 425 in January, and 357 in February.

  12. Okay then that’s my 889.

  13. 845

  14. 1050

  15. 903

  16. 825

  17. I’d honestly like to thank everyone bracketing my guess so close. Now if I win there won’t be any complaints that JtR likes me best.

  18. 755 – in honor of the real home run champ. I don’t think sellers are going to get the prices they want and buyers are going to balk at rates/payments/prices. Let’s hope for lower rates! Which just might happen if the economy continues to slow down. Happy New Year!

  19. 777

  20. 910

  21. As of Jan 14th:

    755 – Neil
    777 – Bb
    785 – Recordsclerk
    799 – TominLaCosta
    825 – Haile
    838 – Eddie89
    845 – Joe
    845 – B
    864 – Wes
    889 – Rob Dawg
    903 – Esteban
    910 – Drew
    1,017 – Rob
    1,050 – Ron

    Dawg’s tiebreaker is 427 and 462 for each month. We need a tiebreaker from the two who both said 845!

  22. For the first ten days of the year:

    2018: 145
    2019: 150

  23. I might be one of these spring sellers…

    I think you are going to see people trying to get out now for all of the reason’s we’ve heard (peak of the market, GTFO of California, downsize, etc, etc)

    925

  24. Put me down for 866

  25. I’ll say 858

  26. The final tally:

    755 – Neil
    777 – Bb
    785 – Recordsclerk
    799 – TominLaCosta
    825 – Haile
    838 – Eddie89
    845 – Joe
    845 – B
    858 – Marc
    864 – Wes
    866 – BWell_SoCal
    889 – Rob Dawg
    903 – Esteban
    910 – Drew
    1,017 – Rob
    1,050 – Ron

    Dawg’s tiebreaker is 427 and 462 for each month. We need a tiebreaker from the two who both said 845!

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