At the end of last December, blog readers made guesses about the 2018 market:
2018 Predictions By Readers:
Rob Dawg:
High end volume and price stagnant.
Median rises 8% because every low priced property disappears sold or doesn’t sell. Median rises 8% because median properties are going to be owner improved in order to command a higher price. Total volume however will drop 10% for the same reasons.
It is almost as if financial events have been financialized. No room for small fish in the real estate ocean.
The next stock market event doesn’t lower prices only freezes activity.
Makes me so mad I want to drive a minivan into a swimming pool.
franklin Jones:
My guess, home sales remain -2% due to a lack of inventory in the low end coupled by price increase in that sector. With a median sales price up 5.5% for 2018.
The lower end property will be very competitive. Lets take Encinitas, don’t think you are gonna find a SFR that is decent for under 800K anymore, next will be South Carlsbad which will be under 700K…that is coming. Good time to buy anything over 1.5 mil especially Cardiff and Rancho Santa Fe…good value for the money considering what new homes are going for, we are talking 800K for new San Marcos and up with any kind of a view. that city has really come up in the last five years.
I think for a second house, or rental you cannot go wrong with the beach areas, yea the price, but I think no matter what happens in the future people will always want to live at or near the beach and I don’t see rents tanking anytime soon. Interest rates are gonna up…3.6 to 4.0 this year, next I see towards the end of the year 4.5…in terms of interest that is a 12% increase in interest payments in terms of whole dollars…Lock it in now..while the money is still very cheap. 5years from now when we are at norm…which is 6.5% or more than 50% more interest if you consider 4% or thereabouts. We will see price fluctuation but at these rates lock and load at either 15 years or 30 years.
Ash:
For San Diego overall, similar to what happened in 2014 (-9% sales, +9% msp):
-6% Sales
+6% Median Sales Price
How close were the guesses?
The 2018 results for the detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad: The median sales price was +8% year-over-year, and sales were down 10%.
Rob Dawg predicted it exactly as it turned out, franklin Jones was right about the lower-end Carlsbad/Encinitas market rising quickly and rates being around 4.5% at the end of 2018, and Ash’s mention of 2014 was spot on as well!
My +5% in price and -5% in sales for 2018 was too conservative.
I’m still wrestling with my thoughts about pricing next year. The fewer the sales, the higher the pricing, but how much will sellers endure? Won’t some cave on price, just to get it done?
I think so, which should keep a throttle on pricing, as will the slightly-higher mortgage rates. I’ll go with -20% on NSDCC sales, and flat pricing.
What do you think about the 2019 market?
I predict a mild recession in 2019.
Agree – the economy can’t do much better than the 3%-4% GDP growth, so anything less will be labeled as recession-like.
Hysteria from the Mueller report will slow everybody down for a while too.
Actually, I believe there will be negative GDP growth for at least some period next year. But the fed and DC will do everything in their power to minimize it.
Actually, I believe there will be negative GDP growth for at least some period next year. But the fed and DC will do everything in their power to minimize it.
The real estate industrial complex is only prepared and ready for optimal conditions – hence the same positive forecasts every year.
We hit a speed bump of -10% sales this year and the sky is falling. Negative GDP growth would be catastrophic.
Here goes.
Median +4%. Late year inflation and demand for even negative cash flow rental properties. Volume down only 12%. Lots of deck chair shuffling will look like volume. Reported volume -10% from 2018.
$2m+ volume will increase. Lots of quality properties aging out and none of the kids or grandkids can afford to take possession out of the communal estate. Add to this the “too many houses” crowd both casual investors and the very rich who have made their money and ready to throw off the carrying costs.
Almost nothing sub $550k will show up on the sales sheets.
Interest rates will range between 4.4% (early, briefly) and eventually 5.6% (in Q4). Inflation and banking regulations conspire.
There may be a technical recession that will be over before it is confirmed. People will argue whether there was a recession.
Here is a metric we haven’t followed. Total dollar volume of sales will be flat to slightly down.
But what do I know?
@Rob_Dawg: What do you mean by “$2m+ volume will increase” as it sounds like you’re saying that fewer people will buy? Or is it that volume will increase because there will be more price cuts?
I’m not really in the recession camp in 2019, unless there’s no deal for US-China trade. Maybe a reduction to 1-2% GDP, but it might feel like a recession due to the reduction in stimulus from tax cuts.
Here is a metric we haven’t followed. Total dollar volume of sales will be flat to slightly down.
NSDCC 2017: $4,762,049,738
NSDCC 2018: $4,746,296,300
Difference is -0.3%
All we need is $16M of later reporters to tie!
What do you mean by “$2m+ volume will increase” as it sounds like you’re saying that fewer people will buy? Or is it that volume will increase because there will be more price cuts?
NSDCC 2017 Sales Over $2M: 607 houses, $1,915,458,773 total volume
NSDCC 2018 Sales Over $2M: 614 houses, $2,090,105,353 total volume
Total volume +9% YoY
One reason volume should continue to increase next year is because $2M+ is the market now. Of the current 727 active NSDCC listings, 414 are listed over $2,000,000, or 56%!
It’s almostcas if I know what I’m talking about. For the record SD is easier to follow than VenCo. SD is large enough and Gaussian (long tail) distributed enough to apply big data techniques.
2929 will be interesting.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/01/question-6-for-2019-will-fed-raise.html?m=1