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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Posted by on Dec 13, 2018 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 5 comments | Print Print

2019 Market Outlook

Above is the summary of yesterday’s housing and economic outlook sponsored by First American Title.  Click here for the full report:

SoCal Outlook Dec 2018

Let’s mention those who will be making the market in 2019:

  1. Those with the least amount of experience and education.
  2. Those who don’t own a home here yet.

People in these two categories aren’t hampered by the over-analysis that comes with owning a home here currently.  Those who already own a home in San Diego have paid less, and have a lower mortgage rate.  We are trying to make sense of giving that up, and paying more!

It’s a burden that thwarts most attempts to move by current homeowners.

But those who don’t study it too hard, or don’t already own a home will forge ahead.  They have already decided that buying a home make sense in this environment, and have their own personal consequences if they don’t buy.  They aren’t going to be talked out of it either.

Figure out how many people are in that group, and you can predict the future.

Here are the categories:

  • First-timers
  • Down-sizers
  • Up-sizers with strong needs
  • Incomers from out-of-county/state/country
  • Affluent people

Everyone else will enjoy their comfortable spot on the fence and wait-and-see what these folks will do.  Let’s acknowledge though that people in these five groups aren’t tethered with the same restraints as the rest of us – it’s just a matter of how many people are in these groups.

How many?  My guess is 80% of those who bought in 2018.

5 Comments

  1. I am not an Economist by any stretch of the imagination…..I only play one on Real Estate blogs.

    I get the feeling that the next recession won’t be noticed until after it is over.

    Unless China-USA-Canada start collecting more hostages….Errrr, I mean, arresting people suspected of committing crimes against the state.

  2. As long as governments can pay the interest, all is good, right? VIX is staying low. Will be fun to watch.

  3. tl;dr: real estate agents pretending to be economists talk their own book. News at eleven!

  4. I don’t know where they got their #1 point from. Every day it seems another analyst is calling for a recession by the 2nd half of 2019 and every single one is calling for one by the end of 2020.

    Leveraged loans and corporate credit are looking pretty terrible right now.

  5. real estate agents pretending to be economists talk their own book.

    Welcome back greenlander!

    I’m the only realtor pretending to be an economist here. These cats are real economists from the UCLA Anderson School of Business and Metrostudy, though their data has ivory-tower written all over it.

    The only reason an economist’s view would be pertinent is if history repeats itself, because all they do is compare today’s data to previous sets.

    It’s different this time.

    Strict mortgage underwriting ONLY (we’ve always had no-doc and neg-am mortgages in the past) combined with the new anti-foreclosure law are game-changers.

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