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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Posted by on Oct 29, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Thinking of Selling? | 3 comments | Print Print

Inventory Watch

Now that the media is trumpeting a slower housing market every day, you’d think there might be more sellers hitting the panic button and listing their house for sale this year, rather than wait for the Glut of 2019.

But this week, the number of new listings dropped 32%!  The count from the previous week was 101, but we only had 69 new listings in the past seven days.

The number of pendings is holding up too (+1 this week).

Let’s compare the exact time in question when things started feeling different towards the end of the selling season.

NSDCC Sales between Aug 1st and Oct 15:

Year
Number of Sales
Median LP
2014
588
$1,065,000
2015
637
$1,059,000
2016
676
$1,187,500
2017
652
$1,237,050
2018
598
$1,325,000

In 2014, mortgage rates had been coming down – from 4.43% in January to 4.04% in October – and the median sales price was 24% lower too.  Yet we had more sales in 2018!

By the Spring of 2019, you can bet that any talk of a year-end slowdown will be shrugged off and blamed on the holidays – and that next year’s pricing will be right back to (overly) optimistic.

Buyers – it won’t get better next year!

Get Good Help!

The UNDER-$1,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
36
$477/sf
51
58
Jan 8
35
$479/sf
42
56
Jan 15
39
$469/sf
37
53
Jan 22
37
$453/sf
42
62
Jan 29
38
$459/sf
35
64
Feb 5
41
$463/sf
26
69
Feb 12
39
$461/sf
20
73
Feb 19
42
$456/sf
20
72
Feb 26
53
$451/sf
20
81
Mar 5
47
$457/sf
24
79
Mar 12
60
$434/sf
19
87
Mar 19
67
$478/sf
21
81
Mar 26
61
$477/sf
23
86
Apr 2
50
$464/sf
24
95
Apr 9
56
$471/sf
23
93
Apr 16
61
$464/sf
24
93
Apr 23
59
$459/sf
25
96
Apr 30
61
$466/sf
27
95
May 7
67
$472/sf
20
89
May 14
66
$480/sf
21
95
May 21
81
$474/sf
21
85
May 28
83
$438/sf
24
91
Jun 4
80
$442/sf
27
97
Jun 11
81
$427/sf
27
91
Jun 18
88
$442/sf
29
78
Jun 25
93
$442/sf
31
77
Jul 2
96
$443/sf
30
76
Jul 9
98
$447/sf
33
65
Jul 16
98
$445/sf
34
78
Jul 23
97
$436/sf
34
68
Jul 30
116
$433/sf
32
71
Aug 6
111
$434/sf
31
64
Aug 13
115
$434/sf
34
64
Aug 20
110
$426/sf
37
58
Aug 27
117
$430/sf
36
64
Sep 3
109
$427/sf
38
62
Sep 10
113
$436/sf
36
61
Sep 17
117
$439/sf
36
59
Sep 24
109
$440/sf
37
61
Oct 1
100
$441/sf
40
67
Oct 8
106
$441/sf
40
66
Oct 15
112
$434/sf
43
57
Oct 22
111
$426/sf
42
63
Oct 22
114
$422/sf
41
64

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
91
$532/sf
72
68
Jan 8
99
$551/sf
64
64
Jan 15
96
$535/sf
61
75
Jan 22
107
$515/sf
63
82
Jan 29
108
$512/sf
57
91
Feb 5
110
$518/sf
49
100
Feb 12
117
$487/sf
46
106
Feb 19
107
$500/sf
45
114
Feb 26
112
$485/sf
46
117
Mar 5
111
$496/sf
45
115
Mar 12
126
$475/sf
43
109
Mar 19
125
$487/sf
47
129
Mar 26
133
$484/sf
47
124
Apr 2
139
$495/sf
47
121
Apr 9
148
$485/sf
51
119
Apr 16
145
$474/sf
45
114
Apr 23
162
$470/sf
43
117
Apr 30
162
$486/sf
42
121
May 7
180
$495/sf
40
117
May 14
182
$491/sf
41
127
May 21
184
$475/sf
40
135
May 28
188
$473/sf
40
139
Jun 4
189
$469/sf
43
148
Jun 11
199
$469/sf
45
142
Jun 18
193
$465/sf
44
143
Jun 25
211
$476/sf
39
141
Jul 2
206
$483/sf
41
142
Jul 9
201
$483/sf
45
146
Jul 16
200
$502/sf
44
145
Jul 23
217
$504/sf
45
148
Jul 30
210
$493/sf
48
154
Aug 6
209
$493/sf
45
146
Aug 13
214
$496/sf
44
147
Aug 20
205
$494/sf
46
145
Aug 27
211
$493/sf
46
134
Sep 3
207
$486/sf
45
129
Sep 10
211
$489/sf
47
125
Sep 17
194
$483/sf
49
120
Sep 24
209
$476/sf
49
108
Oct 1
207
$476/sf
48
107
Oct 8
201
$481/sf
48
110
Oct 15
203
$487/sf
48
110
Oct 22
203
$492/sf
48
108
Oct 29
204
$495/sf
51
104

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
84
$612/sf
86
40
Jan 8
98
$612/sf
73
42
Jan 15
98
$607/sf
73
42
Jan 22
111
$589/sf
63
42
Jan 29
120
$577/sf
61
45
Feb 5
114
$586/sf
56
51
Feb 12
118
$566/sf
52
57
Feb 19
121
$596/sf
53
64
Feb 26
122
$596/sf
53
64
Mar 5
125
$593/sf
56
70
Mar 12
131
$602/sf
53
67
Mar 19
120
$598/sf
58
74
Mar 26
121
$596/sf
57
75
Apr 2
128
$593/sf
55
70
Apr 9
140
$612/sf
54
66
Apr 16
146
$617/sf
50
67
Apr 23
149
$616/sf
53
78
Apr 30
152
$605/sf
60
81
May 7
157
$618/sf
63
85
May 14
158
$614/sf
63
87
May 21
154
$637/sf
54
82
May 28
146
$633/sf
58
80
Jun 4
149
$614/sf
54
76
Jun 11
158
$615/sf
50
83
Jun 18
164
$606/sf
53
77
Jun 25
160
$606/sf
56
73
Jul 2
160
$607/sf
56
69
Jul 9
160
$590/sf
63
65
Jul 16
160
$591/sf
63
66
Jul 23
156
$587/sf
65
67
Jul 30
158
$582/sf
68
69
Aug 6
165
$590/sf
59
70
Aug 13
166
$596/sf
58
72
Aug 20
172
$608/sf
61
67
Aug 27
171
$622/sf
66
65
Sep 3
172
$611/sf
67
64
Sep 10
176
$603/sf
69
52
Sep 17
177
$613/sf
70
56
Sep 24
174
$618/sf
72
56
Oct 1
164
$624/sf
73
57
Oct 8
169
$612/sf
68
57
Oct 15
174
$612/sf
69
51
Oct 22
171
$602/sf
69
55
Oct 29
159
$601/sf
73
57

The $2,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
341
$1,021/sf
127
56
Jan 8
356
$1,007/sf
123
49
Jan 15
370
$991/sf
115
48
Jan 22
375
$992/sf
110
47
Jan 29
384
$1,005/sf
109
56
Feb 5
387
$1,005/sf
111
56
Feb 12
379
$1,004/sf
107
63
Feb 19
399
$990/sf
104
69
Feb 26
400
$990/sf
101
75
Mar 5
398
$1,022/sf
97
79
Mar 12
406
$1,017/sf
99
89
Mar 19
430
$1,020/sf
97
79
Mar 26
455
$0/sf
92
71
Apr 2
453
$0/sf
94
67
Apr 9
462
$0/sf
94
66
Apr 16
473
$0/sf
95
66
Apr 23
482
$0/sf
95
70
Apr 30
476
$0/sf
94
74
May 7
486
$0/sf
92
72
May 14
493
$0/sf
91
84
May 21
510
$0/sf
92
79
May 28
504
$0/sf
95
90
Jun 4
488
$0/sf
94
102
Jun 11
502
$0/sf
95
99
Jun 18
524
$0/sf
93
91
Jun 25
525
$0/sf
92
78
Jul 2
516
$0/sf
94
78
Jul 9
519
$0/sf
96
73
Jul 16
521
$0/sf
98
80
Jul 23
539
$0/sf
98
82
Jul 30
550
$0/sf
101
82
Aug 6
544
$0/sf
101
81
Aug 13
556
$0/sf
100
78
Aug 20
562
$0/sf
100
76
Aug 27
552
$0/sf
102
74
Sep 3
541
$0/sf
105
65
Sep 10
543
$0/sf
106
72
Sep 17
550
$0/sf
106
78
Sep 24
545
$0/sf
107
80
Oct 1
528
$0/sf
106
81
Oct 8
523
$0/sf
107
84
Oct 15
523
$0/sf
107
82
Oct 22
528
$0/sf
106
80
Oct 29
523
$0/sf
110
81

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Pendings
Jan 1, 2018
18
15
Jan 8
89
31
Jan 15
87
43
Jan 22
87
43
Jan 29
81
48
244
Feb 5
77
53
262
Feb 12
74
53
280
Feb 19
89
55
295
Feb 26
87
57
318
Mar 5
84
62
328
Mar 12
107
61
339
Mar 19
88
59
350
Mar 26
99
55
347
Apr 2
87
66
346
Apr 9
106
58
336
Apr 16
98
54
331
Apr 23
108
67
353
Apr 30
98
70
362
May 7
138
68
355
May 14
99
78
386
May 21
115
63
369
May 28
92
84
387
Jun 4
91
77
410
Jun 11
100
56
401
Jun 18
103
54
376
Jun 25
105
54
358
Jul 2
83
78
361
Jul 9
74
50
342
Jul 16
109
83
361
Jul 23
101
54
357
Jul 30
97
67
364
Aug 6
101
60
349
Aug 13
103
54
350
Aug 20
89
58
334
Aug 27
83
46
325
Sep 3
80
59
312
Sep 10
83
46
302
Sep 17
91
53
305
Sep 24
85
41
296
Oct 1
95
47
302
Oct 8
93
55
307
Oct 15
84
40
291
Oct 22
101
51
298
Oct 29
69
55
299

3 Comments

  1. Oh, the media is only looking for quickie headlines? OK, sales were down 8% from last year.

    But 20% or more is a big drop. 8% is a flesh wound.




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  2. Buyer’s sit and wait a 20-30% rout in the stock market will soon set in, layoffs will start, this whole charade of an economy will be unmasked. Seller’s will panic they always do and prices will capitulate. It’s not “different this time” it’s always the same up and down up and down.




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  3. Problem with buyers waiting for the big crash, with cash on the sidelines is that when/if the big crash comes, bigger players like Blackstone and Invitation Homes have billions in cash waiting to snag up those same properties.

    Also, the banks learned that they are too big to fail and Central Banks will bail them out and drop interest rates to zero or negative and do whatever it takes to re-inflate the bubble.




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