Zillow 2018 Forecast

For those who are putting the finishing touches on their own 2018 forecast, here’s how close the Zillow Group guesses have been:

Local ZHVI-Appreciation Forecasts

Town	2015 Forecast	Actual	2016 Forecast	Actual	2017 Forecast	Actual	2018 Forecast
Carlsbad	+2.7%	+4.8%	+1.9%	+3.8%	+1.3%	+6.1%	+3.5%
Carmel Valley	+0.3%	+5.4%	+1.4%	+1.9%	+0.9%	+12.1%	+5.2%
Del Mar	+5.5%	+1.1%	+1.4%	+2.6%	+1.1%	+0.3%	+3.2%
Encinitas	+0.6%	+8.3%	+2.4%	+6.3%	+2.2%	+9.7%	+4.3%
La Jolla	+2.7%	+6.6%	+2.3%	+6.1%	+2.1%	+7.0%	+3.9%
RSF	+0.4%	+11.1%	+3.7%	-0.5%	+1.9%	+4.1%	+2.9%
San Diego	+1.7%	+6.4%	+2.1%	+4.0%	+1.7%	+8.6%	+4.2%
Solana Beach	+2.7%	+6.4%	+2.2%	+2.6%	+1.4%	+8.3%	+3.6%

Their guesses have been conservative, and for their 2018 forecasts, they pretty much just halved the appreciation gained in 2017.

The Zillow data changes slightly, depending on where you look on their website, and whether you use town names or zip codes. Here is the LINK to find others.

2 Comments

Daytrip on December 28, 2017 at 9:37 am

Looks like Zillow’s playing the old-timey prognosticators game to save face. Utilized when the prognosticator is clueless, but doesn’t want to look bad. Some lame doctors do it with cancer patients when they can’t figure it out.

It’s far better to tell a patient to get his affairs in order and be wrong, than to tell the patient he’ll beat the cancer and be proven wrong.

The first scenario turns against him it’s, “ha ha! He beat your bet, doc! Lemme buy you a beer!” The the second scenario goes wrong, it’s “you misled us, you damned QUACK!!”

Zillow reliably tells us “Figuring out real estate is hard! Where’s our beer?”

James on December 29, 2017 at 7:22 am

Thanks for sharing!

Zillow lost something about 9% of traffic in last 6 months. Growth becomes harder.

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Jim Klinge

Klinge Realty Group

Broker-Associate, Compass

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