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Posted by on Jun 15, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market | 3 comments | Print Print

If There Was No Bubble

What would have happened if we didn’t have the bubble/burst?

This graph suggests we would have gotten here anyway, and it’s probably true.

The national 3.6% annual appreciation rate sounds a little rich, but we would have had strong demand from baby boomers setting up their kids lately.

What else?

  1. We probably wouldn’t have sub-4% mortgage rates.  The jury is still out on whether the Fed can navigate this through to the other side, so there could be further prices to pay later.
  2. If the fixed-rate on mortgages wasn’t so low, we might still have ARMs.
  3. We’d still have foreclosures.
  4. Kamala Harris wouldn’t be so famous.
  5. The Tan Man wouldn’t have been sent to early retirement, and his golf game would have suffered slightly.
  6. wouldn’t be here!

I’m grateful we are here together trying to figure it all out!


  1. IMO, seems to me the reason President Trump is working to ease up current restrictions on anything having to do with raw production is we have an obscene deficit via unbridled money-printing to float the S&P from the prior administration, and that needs to be mitigated. Only way to do that is a production boom, imo.

    His theory seems to be, “let’s now work with what we have, because we have a lot.”

    To me, this would mean kicking ass with viable, in-your-face production, instead of kissing the rings of social media sociopath middle-men successfully monetizing narcissism.

    Additionally, Greenpeace and especially the Sierra Club, while they began with great intentions, are demonstrably devoted enemies against this state, and need a little political hamstringing including dismissing them as a valid political voice, which I hope pans out. They’ve done enough damage. They need to dismissed, when they croak about easing up some EPA restrictions that no longer make sense.

    Anyhoo… as long as Trump keeps putting the pedal to the metal on real production, I think real estate prices aren’t going to be doing anything fancy on the downside. Real estate is a thermometer of a productive environment. imo.

    The last dive reflected a significant number of our population sitting on their asses, playing video games while rapid-fire posting pictures of their ugly babies on MySpace, and taking a bit of time out to file liar loans to sociopaths handing out silly mortgages, as well as the folks who were too busy supporting themselves to notice what was happening.

    While people are still promoting themselves to friends and family for no reason on Facebook, it’s not with the prior narcissistic intensity as before, and Trump appears to be getting steel made, coal dug, and soon, bridges built.

    In other words, for millennials, it’s not your father’s real estate sh*tshow, so don’t be planning on any massive dump of real estate anytime soon. That was a once-in-a-lifetime thing, imo. Quality properties will keep winning, as has been noted here by people smarter than me, again and again.


  2. Daytrip –

    I think you and I were separated at birth. Well said and completely agree. Something tells me you lean libertarian.

    America was great back in the day because of production. This is why an increase in government and a shrinking private sector sees the opposite affect. Government doesn’t produce anything. We have to produce, raise interest rates, and invite capital back in. That said, the Fed is still F’d and should be abolished.


  3. Strongly agree!

    I’m not allowed to be a libertarian, because I’m against legalizing pot. Can’t be conservative since I support abortion. Can’t be a liberal since I believe everyone is ultimately responsible for their own repeated willfully stupid behavior.

    I rooted for Trump, first and foremost to protect the Supreme Court for the next generation. By all accounts, even by his devoted enemies, he’s kicked ass getting that job done. As a longtime US citizen, for that alone, I’m smiling like that old cigar guy on the A-Team. Every… day.

    And I believe folks should pay attention to… Richard Dreyfus!



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