If we stay on the same pace we’ve had for the first three months of 2017, our local Case-Shiller Index will rise about 10%-12% this year!
“People are staying in their homes longer rather than selling and trading up,” David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “If mortgage rates, currently near 4%, rise further, this could deter more people from selling and keep pressure on inventories and prices.”
“While prices cannot rise indefinitely, there is no way to tell when rising prices and mortgage rates will force a slowdown in housing.”
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:
| Month | |||
| December | |||
| January ’15 | |||
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| January ’16 | |||
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| March |
The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.
The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.
“Home prices continue rising with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index up 5.8 percent in the year ended March, the fastest pace in almost three years,” David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices said. “While there is some regional variation, prices are rising across the U.S. Half of the 20 cities tracked by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices rose more than 6 percent from March 2016 to March 2017. The smallest gain of 4.1 percent, in New York, was roughly double the rate of inflation.
“Sales of both new and existing homes, housing starts and the National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index are all trending higher. Over the last year, analysts suggested that one factor pushing prices higher was the unusually low inventory of homes for sale. People are staying in their homes longer rather than selling and trading up. If mortgage rates, currently near 4 percent, rise further, this could deter more people from selling and keep pressure on inventories and prices. While prices cannot rise indefinitely, there is no way to tell when rising prices and mortgage rates will force a slowdown in housing.”
As of March, the National Index is 1.3 percent higher than the pre-crash peak it reached in July 2006, having bounced back by 39.5 percent from its low point in February 2012. The two composites have returned to their winter 2007 levels, but the 10-City is still down 7.6 percent from its July 2006 peak and the 20-City remains 5.4 percent lower.