We hear about the ‘tight inventory’ across the country, but the perception is affected by how fast homes are selling – there aren’t many houses just sitting around not selling, which gives the appearance of ‘tight’.
Let’s measure it correctly by comparing the total number of houses listed for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
NSDCC Total 1st Quarter Listings
| 1st Qtr | ||
| 2013 | ||
| 2014 | ||
| 2015 | ||
| 2016 | ||
| 2017 |
The number of NSDCC houses listed for sale hasn’t dropped significantly from previous 1Qs – the 1,223 is only 4% below the average of the last five years. Does that mean the number of sales should be comparable to previous years?
Here is the first look at last month’s NSDCC detached-home sales:
NSDCC March Sales
| March | |||||
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | |||||
| 2015 | |||||
| 2016 | |||||
| 2017 |
Sales last month were 11% below the March average of the last five years. Double-digit changes should get our attention! But it is very understandable, once we look deeper.
The lower-end is where the discrepancy is – the number of houses sold under $800,000 last month was 44% below the 5-year average.
The lower-end market is disappearing.
We’re already a higher-end market, and going higher. As a result, sales could taper off as we find an equilibrium.
It’s not like there aren’t houses for sale. They’re just expensive!
Today we have 822 on the market between La Jolla and Carlsbad – with a median LP of $2,295,000! Only 97 of those (12%) are listed under $1,000,000!
One other note. The $524/sf average last March included this house that closed for a whopping $5,869/sf. Take that out, and the March, 2016 average is $502/sf, the same as the previous year.
