For those looking for a more binary view of market conditions (hot/cold, good/bad), let’s compare San Diego County detached-home sales for 2016 to the previous years.
San Diego County Annual Detached-Home Sales
| Year | |||
| 2012 | |||
| 2013 | |||
| 2014 | |||
| 2015 | |||
| 2016 |
The median sales price has gone up 46%, yet the number of sales were only 5% lower in 2016 than in 2012. Last year, sales were higher than the last two years, and the average days on the market are half what they used to be
Those are fantastic market conditions!
Could the momentum keep going? Will it?
There were good reasons that the real estate market has tanked previously. In 1981, mortgage rates hit 18%, when just four years prior they were in the 8s – that is sticker shock! In the early-1990s, we had the Savings & Loan crisis when they gave away all the foreclosed houses. Of course, in 2006-2008 we had the Mozilo Crisis, where exotic mortgages caused a panic.
It would take a catastrophic event to topple our market now. Sales and prices may bounce around, but the baby-boomer wealth distribution program will juice the market for decades. The final gift of boomers will be to make sure their children all have houses, and even Trump won’t screw that up. If anything, the hysteria will cause more boomers to worry about their kids!
Here are the NSDCC annual sales, broken down into North and South:
La Jolla-Del Mar-SB-RSF-Carmel Valley Detached-Home Sales
| Year | |||
| 2012 | |||
| 2013 | |||
| 2014 | |||
| 2015 | |||
| 2016 |
Carlsbad-Cardiff-Encinitas Annual Detached-Home Sales
| Year | |||
| 2012 | |||
| 2013 | |||
| 2014 | |||
| 2015 | |||
| 2016 |
What could cause the market to tank, besides a catastrophic event? We’d have to run out of buyers. But if there is any place in the good ol’ USA that people will keep coming, it’s San Diego!
Ave DOM is what continues to amaze. Which are most likely the reason:
1. White-hot market
2. Evidence of technology advances and educated and prepared buyers pool.
3. Evidence of savvy and prepared sellers/agents knowing how to prep and market homes
4. Lots of “0” DOM sales skewing average.
5. Savvy agents figuring how to reset old listings to game the DOM numbers.
Yes, all of the above but there were plenty of 0’s in 2012 too.
Thanks BAM!
http://sdbj.com/news/2017/jan/03/co-sd-home-prices-will-continue-outpace-rest-state/
Real estate information service CoreLogic predicted San Diego County home values will continue to outpace the rest of the state, rising an average of 10.1 percent by November 2017 as compared with November 2016 levels.
The Irvine-based company described local market conditions as “normal,” not “overvalued” as it labeled the Los Angeles and other markets.
California home prices overall jumped 5.5 percent between November 2015 and November 2016, CoreLogic stated. It forecast an 8.6 percent increase by November 2017.
In a brief overview, CoreLogic reported San Diego-area home prices surged 6.2 percent between November 2015 and November 2016. It said prices increased three-tenths of a percent between October and November and predicted they would edge up another 0.2 percent in December 2016.
I just can’t believe a 10% YOY increase, I was thinking 3% (I agree with anything Jim says :)), but by all means, if the market wants to grow, I’m down!
Why do so many well-to-do, potential highly-skilled immigrants, aggressively attempt to secure US citizenship in general, and living in So. Cal in particular? Beijing, for example, is a thriving super city! Why are those folks wanting to leave for good?
Let’s visit Beijing, and see what’s up!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BOv2Bd4jxKW/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/buying-a-home-in-2017-heres-what-to-expect/
So far, the rate increases have not begun to worry Lowenstein, who’s in the market for a house with at least three bedrooms in L.A.’s affluent west side. His budget: Between $1.6 million and $1.8 million.
“We’re not priced out yet,” Lowenstein said. “But if it goes up to 5 percent or 6 percent, at some point we would be.”
Methinks the longer average DOM in 2012 is a remnant of the short sale era. Looks more stable albeit declining after that.
I took short sales out of the 2012 count, and sure enough, the average DOM dropped to 49 for the SD County sales.
Thanks for the contribution!
The ADOM for short sales was 153 days, and they accounted for 26% of the market in 2012.
In 2016, they were 2% of the SD Co. market.
Where is Oceanside?
It is north of Carlsbad, up the 5. 😆
Oceanside has enjoyed being the least-expensive beach town in North County, but it’s not in the same league as La Jolla to Carlsbad because of the schools.
So should i buy now or have i missed the boat? if i buy i plan on staying put for at least 5-10 years?
The only boat you missed was paying less/getting more. If you still have other good reasons to purchase and can afford it comfortably, then go for it.
If you are in North SD County, I’d be happy to help!
“Oceanside has enjoyed being the least-expensive beach town in North County, but it’s not in the same league as La Jolla to Carlsbad because of the schools.”
Now THAT is how you gerrymander in real estate!
Whatever. That’s the market speaking, not me.
Go get your license, and work the street/get your head bashed in for 30 years, and you’ll see.