Every prognosticator has released their cautious predictions for the year, but how will we know what’s happening in the meantime?
- How will buyers know if it’s safe to go back in the water?
- How will sellers know if they can pack another 5% on to their price?
There are two ways we can get a sense of the initial enthusiasm, and by the end of January it should become more clear on which way the market is breaking. Last year, our start was already slightly slower than the previous two years, but close enough that there wasn’t any panic. Buyers kept buying, and for the most part, they paid what the sellers wanted.
NSDCC Monthly Sales
| Year | ||||
| 2013-14 | ||||
| 2014-15 | ||||
| 2015-16 | ||||
| 2016-17 |
If we close 150 sales in each of the next two months, and hit 515 for our 3-month total, I think we can say our market is surviving. But we can dig deeper to see what will have caused those results.
January New Listings and New Pendings
| Year | ||
| 2014 | ||
| 2015 | ||
| 2016 |
Yes, there will be several old listings being ‘re-freshed’ this year – in the first week of last year, about 70% of the new listings had been re-inputted. But it is like that every year.
Keep your eye on the number of new pendings. If we can get close to last year’s 140, we should be fine, but the wait-and-see trend has been building.
The new listings will play a role – if there is a surge of fresh meat, it could cause rate-sensitive buyers to jump in now if they see something decent. But rates should moderate, keeping buyers picky. If there aren’t many current owners willing to sell, then we could have fewer pendings but healthy conditions. Let’s compare the two as we go!
