At the rate our local Case-Shiller Index has been rising over the last few months, we will be looking at 2% to 3% appreciation per year – or less.

“Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“However, mortgage interest rates rose in November and are expected to rise further as home prices continue to out-pace gains in wages and personal income.”

Blitzer noted that measures of home affordability—which are based on median incomes, housing prices and mortgage rates—have fallen by 20 percent to 30 percent since home prices hit a bottom in 2012. While consumer confidence is high and unemployment is low, home prices cannot keep rising faster than incomes and inflation, he said.

Here are the recent San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%
October
228.34
+0.2%
+5.9%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

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