For an ivory-tower guy, 70-year old Robert Shiller does pretty good in describing the current environment – a couple of excerpts from this article:
“There’s always reason to worry [about a coming collapse],” Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize–winning economist and co-creator of the S&P/Case Shiller Index, told Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith in the video above. But he is quick to point out one stark difference between today’s housing market and that of 2006. “We’re in a holding pattern right now … People are less excited about buying because they themselves don’t believe [home prices] will be going up a lot. Back in 2006, when the homeownership rate was setting records, people had extravagant expectations.”
“The Fed raised [rates] in December just a quarter of one percent, and plausibly they’ll raise [rates] by another quarter or a half percent, and it may not be a big deal,” said Shiller. “On the other hand, it might be a big deal because we’re in this strange period of near zero interest rates, and if people see it as a major turning point, it could affect home prices. My opinion is if you want a house, go out and buy it. It’s not an extremely unusual time. There are always risks. ”
Shiller is not totally an ivory tower guy. He has started businesses.
That’s cool, but he’s not on the street dealing with buyers and sellers every day.
I don’t know how any of the talking heads come up with their opinions – including realtor.com and NAR guys.