Our N.A.R. head cheerleader does his best at fabricating a believable story behind the 3.2% drop in existing-home sales:
Lawrence Yun, N.A.R. chief economist, says existing sales fell off track in July, after steadily climbing the last four months. “Severely restrained inventory and the tightening grip it’s putting on affordability, is the primary culprit for the considerable sales slump throughout much of the country last month”, he said. Realtors are reporting diminished buyer traffic because of the scarce number of affordable homes on the market, and the lack of supply is stifling the efforts of many prospective buyers attempting to purchase while mortgage rates hover at historical lows.
He needs to follow me on twitter. I’ve already pointed out twice that there were 9% fewer days in July than in June – and sales only dropped 3.2%? Sounds like a positive to me.
But instead he feeds his typical bather to America, and leaves it up to the consumers what to make of it.
He should also point out that 2015 was a hot market, with summer sales exceeding those during the super-frenzy of 2013. Yet sales over the last four months have been close or surpassed those in 2015! Even with the two fewer days, look how July, 2016 compares to previous years – it was better than 2013!
Yunnie needs say, “Remember, real estate is local”, to end all of his speeches. This national data and his blunder of an explanation shouldn’t have any impact on local market conditions. But they could make a difference if casual readers just grab a headline and decide to pack it in for the year. Thanks Yunnie – you’re supposed to be on our side!
The local scoop:
| Detached-Homes | |||||
| NSDCC # of Sales | |||||
| NSDCC Median SP | |||||
| SD Co # of Sales | |||||
| SD Co Median SP |
NSDCC detached-home sales in July dropped 12% compared to June, with 9% fewer business days. With higher prices, sales should be declining – and for them to drop a net 3% sounds good to me. House sales in San Diego County dropped 9% month-over-month – let’s call it even.
P.S. Regarding his comment that realtors are reporting diminished traffic, it’s because you are sitting on over-priced listings. Lower the price and get in the game, or go get another listing!
Added later – looks great:
I will never get why they use volume as the headline grabber. Well, I get it because NAR is interested in commissions, and that takes volume. Nevertheless, wouldn’t YOY median sales price (gain or loss) combined with days on market for the houses that did sell give a more accurate picture of what’s going on? So for example, the 262 houses that sold reveals almost 10% YOY jump in median price, yes? (I admit that number can be easily skewed due small sample size and type of inventory). I don’t know, but I am going to guess that ave DOM for those 262 houses is around 30 days and the median even lower due to all the “sold before processing” gems. The sky is falling.
LOL – and yes, the average DOM for the 262 NSDCC sales last month was 33 days.
Wow it is getting bad out there. I can only get +10% over last year and it will take me MORE than a whole month to sell it.