There will still be late-reporters, but let’s review the annual NSDCC sales.
| Year | ||
| 2012 | ||
| 2013 | ||
| 2014 | ||
| 2015 |
What can we expect for sales this year?
Rates have dropped back under 4% this week, which will help. But sellers will be expecting higher prices in 2016, which will dampen the buyers’ enthusiasm.
My guess for 2016?
Rates at or below 4% = 5% fewer sales.
Rates above 4% = 10% fewer sales.
If rates get into the mid-4s, then my guess is for 25% fewer sales.
The lack of quality inventory will contribute greatly too. Buyers don’t mind paying a little more if they get something extra for it.
But we need to become accustomed to a regurgitated inventory.
It’s likely that we will continue to see sellers try to get their inflated price year after year, rather than lowering the price until it sells. Of the 88 new NSDCC listings this year, 61% of them were on the market in 4Q15. It is a higher-end phenomena too – virtually all listings over $2,000,000 were refreshed.
