4 Comments

1. 

   Gruaud on July 14, 2015 at 11:19 pm

   take a drive thru the ranch. $1-$2mio houses are being torn down for the lot. quite a few new big homes replacing them. it takes time there so they buy or rent in the covenant or FBR. number wise with 1800 homes how many would you expect to turn over a year? I don’t see much financing, cash deals seem to rule. Newer good homes sell well but few are for sale – otherwise you are in the scrape and start fresh camp.Looks ok for a while. Was it 2010 or 2011 where Jim showed the dam over flowing from so much water??

2. 

   Jiji on July 15, 2015 at 6:31 am

   Doug seems a smart and great guy, but I kind of disagree with a few things said,
   1)After the coming flood this winter, all this water conserving landscape talk will be gone.

   2) While it’s true Gen X is smaller, the millennials are larger group than the boomers. (they just turned 24-25 mostly), that should feed the low end and rental market for then next 5-10 years IMO.

   3) They (millennials) really want the same things (ie.. a nice Car and a big house in the burb’s “although not too far form the city”, just ask lennar, KB or DRH)

3. 

   elbarcosr on July 15, 2015 at 2:57 pm

   While I agree that it will rain sooner or later, don’t under estimate that the Ranch is not facing a cost of water issue, rather the simple availability of it. We are the same water district and just got our notice of allocation of water based on usage in 2013. The down-the-line threat is that if you go over, they will come and put flow restrictions on your line. Goodbye sprinklers working right, goodbye taking a shower when the washer is running. Might never come to be, but for now sellers and brokers HAVE to disclose it. Water aside, the ‘low end’ buyer of a house in the Ranch 1.8-2.5, rarely fully comprehends the total cost of owning and running those houses until they are in there with cash bleeding from every pocket.

4. 

   Peter on July 15, 2015 at 6:26 pm

   The El Niño ocean temps are evident right now, the hype of potential big winter rains is growing, but what if the RRR – the ridiculously resilent ridge continues to bump all winter storms up and over the West this winter, what then? Scientists report that 500-1000 year droughts have regularly occurred in California’s past, we’re only 3 years into this one. Sure we’ll adopt, but real estate prices will surely be effected if we are at the start of a long long drought. So many people in our desert south west now and the Colorado is down, lake Mead is way down, Central Valley is sinking from deep wells going dry, it’s always good to have a back up plan.