Zillow has refined their forecast of local ZHVIs over the next year. The Zillow Home Value Index results have tracked the Case-Shiller Index closely, and are probably as good as any crystal ball in predicting the future.
These are the predicted changes in the ZHVI by October 31, 2015:
| La Jolla | |
| Carlsbad | |
| Solana Beach | |
| San Diego | |
| Del Mar | |
| Carmel Valley | |
| Encinitas | |
| RSF |
The Case-Shiller Index for September will be released on Tuesday, and Zillow is predicting that the non-seasonally-adjusted numbers (which are the ones publicized) will be negative:
The media will be using words like ‘fragile’, and ‘struggling’ to describe the real estate market, and we’ll probably hear calls for more intervention.
But the market is supposed to go up and down; that’s why they call it a ‘real estate market’, and not a ‘real estate guarantee’. The history of real estate has followed a ten-year pattern (which it did until Angelo’s creative financing skewed the timeline), which means we are due for at least a plateau. The local trough was April, 2009, and we’ve been flat for at least six months.
Our market is fine – you will still be able to sell your house next year for more money than it has ever been worth. We’ll still see bidding wars and OPTs. Just don’t buy the media’s version that the sky is falling just because prices aren’t going up constantly.
More forecasts here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/11/update-more-2015-housing-forecasts.html
Clicked on the link and it looks like, for what it is worth, the median prediction from that chart puts housing in the low to mid 3% range for 2015. Tacked on to 2013 and 2014 gains, that seems like a pretty good outcome, especially when it appears most predict inflation to be right around 2%. Of course, not many predicted the Raiders would beat the Chiefs, so….
Also, there are always exceptions to the general trend, for exceptional properties. If you have a great house, you can expect to do well in any market. Even during a crash like ’08, there are still people with lots of money waiting to scoop up the good ones.
IMHO, YMMV, I am not a realtor, etc.
“But the market is supposed to go up and down; that’s why they call it a ‘real estate market’, and not a ‘real estate guarantee’.”
Best line of the week!