San Diego’s Case-Shiller Index for January, 2014 had the highest increase in the nation for seasonally-adjusted, month-over-month readings.
Our seasonally-adjusted index went up 1.8% between December and January!
Of course, having one of the warmest winters on record probably helped – do we need to be seasonally adjusted?
These are the non-seasonally adjusted numbers below:
| Month | ||
| March ’13 | ||
| April ’13 | ||
| May ’13 | ||
| June ’13 | ||
| July ’13 | ||
| August ’13 | ||
| September ’13 | ||
| October ’13 | ||
| November ’13 | ||
| December ’13 | ||
| January ’14 |
“The housing recovery may have taken a breather due to the cold weather,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Twelve cities reported declining prices in January vs. December; eight of those were worse than the month before. From the bottom in 2012, prices are up 23% and the housing market is showing signs of moving forward with more normal price increases.
“The Sun Belt showed the five highest monthly returns. Las Vegas was the leader with an increase of 1.1% followed by Miami at +0.7%. San Diego showed its best January performance of 0.6% since 2004. San Francisco and Tampa trailed closely at +0.5% and +0.4%. Elsewhere, New York and Washington D.C. stood out as they continued to improve and posted their highest year-over-year returns since 2006.
Here is the usual interview with Shiller: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101522276
During an interview with CNBC, Robert Shiller, the index’s co-founder and an economics professor at Yale University, characterized January’s growth as “good,” but cautioned that home price gains were slowing gradually. The overall market appears to be weakening, Shiller said, suggesting that the recent surge could due to speculative activity.
“I worry that [the housing market] is going to weaken more because I think investors are in the market,” Shiller said, adding that “they know there is momentum in house prices,” calling the recent price gains “enticing.” Shiller added: “Now, you know, it may not last and these investors may be gone.”
The highest reading on this graph is 250.34 in November, 2005:
That is about as good of an inflection as you will see in any graph.
where does the SD C/S index go from here?
where does the SD C/S index go from here?
Smaller increases on thinner trading.
Monthly sales counts are dropping, Y-O-Y, but if the media notices that they are comparing to the peak-frenzy months, then it can be explained away.
I wonder if this economy is becoming too dependent on stock and home appreciation?
The folks working for a living are hurting while the people with money sit back and watch their assets appreciate.
Is this good for the future? We have a bifurcated class system that is seeing more people broke and dependent on a govt check.
Seems simple to me. We’re living in Paradise & properties are selling at a significant discount to SF & NY. Beyond that, people who are able to live in Paradise have made oodles in the last 5 years. So, what’s the dilemma? We’re in a sellers market, if Buyers want to buy in, they’ll have to step up because sellers have no reason to give their homes away. This market’s got years to go.