Comparing this year’s November sales to the peak years, we can see that last year was a real anomaly, caused by the frenzy kicking into high gear.
You can also see how average pricing trailed the sales count in 2005 and 2006, only to have Angelo goose the market with the no-down, no-doc neg-ams up to $1,500,000 for one last burst in 2007.
With last month’s sales re-calibrating lower, and using the historical trend as a guide, shouldn’t we see the average cost-per-sf start to top out – and be dropping in 12 months?
North SD County’s Coastal November Sales and Avg. $/sf
| Year | ||||
| 2002 | ||||
| 2003 | ||||
| 2004 | ||||
| 2005 | ||||
| 2006 | ||||
| 2007 | ||||
| 2008 | ||||
| 2009 | ||||
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 | ||||
| 2013 |
Of course, this is the new normal. It’s possible that November sales slowed down because buyers became more picky, and fewer homes were deemed worthy. This waiting-buyer demand is hard to measure – if you are in that group, let us know your thoughts!
How hard is it to figure this out?
NAR, CAR, and realtor.com are just waiting for something to fall in their lap, while this company designs a good MLS alternative:
http://www.inman.com/2013/12/04/new-lean-mls-platform-pitched-as-a-broker-centric-alternative-to-zillow-and-trulia/
Sales are down because there really isn’t anything worth buying. Bad flips and ‘make me move’ sellers is pretty much it right now. Seem to see a lot of sprucing up going on right now; don’t know if that is prep for a pre-superbowl onslaught of listings or people feeling good about equity again and upgrading for themselves. Teaser HELOCS at 2% are out there….. Oh boy!
Of the two possibilities presented, the second is probably more likely.
I don’t think we have run out of buyers. And you’re right, the current inventory is bottom of the barrel.
So you think we have at least another two years before a correction? Or will the interest rate hikes cause that to happen sooner?