The Home Value Index has not only been a pretty good measure of pricing trends, but it has also been a good predictor of the Case-Shiller indices.
The next Case-Shiller Index is due out a week from today, and is likely to show more deceleration. The HVI is predicting a less-than 1% increase month-over-month for the 10-City, and 20-City composites.
But the local pricing has been spectacular this year, and we are back to peak pricing – or higher – in some areas:
More cities here:
Great info. What does this mean for the “under water” homeowner? Seems like they can sell but probably only move down the ladder due to loan underwriting.
Maybe now we have a new normal that is normal.
The underwaters are only motivated to sell if they plan to then rent only.
Those that prefer to own their house are realizing that if they can get out now, they won’t have much if any equity to put towards the next house. If it takes a year or two to save the down payment, and prices keep going, then they could end up paying more for less.
Might as well just stay put.
Or they can finally go home. I have two colleagues who have been trapped in their homes. They finally came back to the level where they could get out cleanly and move back to where they came from. They can go home to nicer homes on more land then they had here for half the price or less. It’s easy for us to think everyone wants to live or stay here. They don’t.