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Posted by on Mar 30, 2013 in Carmel Valley, Frenzy, Market Buzz, Market Conditions | 3 comments | Print Print

Frenzy Is Not Universal

Let’s look at the detached-home sales closed over the last 30 days and compare the sales prices to the list prices.

Carmel Valley, 92130 Feb 28 – Mar 30

Category 2012 2013 Chg
# of Sales
34
49
+44%
Median SP
$927K
$885K
-5%
Avg $/sf
$324
$355
+10%
SP:LP
95%
98%
+3%
Avg Days on Mkt
65
38
-42%

(20 of 49 went pending in 9 days or less)

13 of 49 sold for over list price (or over top of range):

$0-$10,000 over list: 4

$11,000 – $25,000 over list: 6

$26,000 – $50,000 over list: 2

$51,000+ over list: 1

Carmel Valley is arguably the hottest market in the county, yet only 27% of the sales went over list price.  Less than 10% (3 of 49) went crazy-over, paying more than $26,000 above list price.  The hottest action was in the lower range too, only 3 of the 20 sales over $1,000,000 were above list price.

A good example here on how the median sales price is more about the mix of houses selling than being an accurate reflection of pricing – will anyone in CV believe that their house went down 5% in price over the last year?

Three of the 49 sales were double-ended (buyers were represented by the listing agent), plus two that were sold prior to listing input.

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SE Carlsbad, 92009 Feb 28 – Mar 30

Category 2012 2013 Chg
# of Sales
54
52
-4%
Median SP
$615K
$757K
+23%
Avg $/sf
$238
$266
+12%
SP:LP
96%
98%
+2%
Avg Days on Mkt
87
42
-52%

(21 of 52 went pending in 9 days or less)

13 of 52 sold for over list price (or over top of range):

$0-$10,000 over list: 5

$11,000 – $25,000 over list: 4

$26,000 – $50,000 over list: 2

$51,000+ over list: 2

SE Carlsbad is loaded with newer tract houses, and about half of the 92009 is in the Encinitas/San Dieguito School District. Yet only 25% of the sales went over list price.  Less than 8% (4 of 52) went crazy-over, paying more than $26,000 over list price.  The hottest action was in the lower range too, there were no overbids once the sales prices got above $860,000.

Four of the 52 sales were double-enders.

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The frenzy is focused on the premium products – the renovated houses in good locations with attractive prices.  If the frenzy is not for you, there is still plenty of opportunity, especially if you like fixers and/or are patient enough to let the OPTs sit for weeks or months!

3 Comments

  1. Thanks for all the information. Do you think that the reason only 25% of 92009 sells over list is because the sellers are now increasing their original list prices? Or could it be that some of the media attention of increasing prices is overblown? I live in SEH and while there is hardly any inventory, it doesn’t seem that the prices, at least in my neighborhood, are going up all that much. Which brings me to my question: Are prices in SEH going up that much or am I living in fantasy land?

    Thanks for all the information you provide to the public free of charge.

    TJ

  2. Good questions, and several thoughts:

    1. Sellers are definitely raising their asking prices!

    The average list price of today’s 92009 active listings is $1,196,541. We’re talking Carlsbad, not Carmel Valley too!

    The average list price of all 92009 detached-home listings last year was $769,197, or $261/sf.

    2. The sellers’ optimism will always be ahead of the market, yet 25% of the sales in the last month closed at higher than list prices.

    It is the mark of a true frenzy when every seller has some fluff pumped into their price and some get it, plus more.

    3. Is it outrageous frenzy or just making up for lost time?

    Let’s go back to the house I just sold on Manzanita.

    The highest sale in the tract was the $605,000 I got for the house on Mimosa two years ago, and it was bigger.

    Our $649,000 list price looked high compared to all recent comps, but there haven’t been many sales. People who remembered back to the peak knew that there were houses selling in the $700,000s and $800,000s.

    Boom – it sold for more than $700,000.

    4. A true sign of the frenzy/higher prices are the homes that didn’t sell over the last 1-2 years that are selling now – for the same or higher prices.

    It could just be a turn of buyer sentiment – those houses could have sold previously unless the housing-bust cloud was still hanging over most buyers, and/or today’s mortgage rates are irresistible.

    Mortgage rates first slipped under 4% in late 2011 though, so that doesn’t explain why a house sells this year that wouldn’t sell last year.

    5. If Mitt Romney would have won, he’d be getting all the credit. But obviously the buyers must have been itching to get back in the game either way. You can trace this recent surge back to September too, before the election.

    6. San Elijo Hills and other areas that are still closing out short sales: Your pricing is being held back somewhat by the short-sale fraudsters. Once the market clears of short-sales, the upward trend will be more clear.

    This should be the last year of short sales.

    7. Thanks for the thanks!

  3. Thanks Jim for the great answer and explanation.

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