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Posted by on Mar 16, 2013 in Forecasts, Frenzy, Inventory, North County Coastal | 0 comments | Print Print

Big Pop Ahead?

On February 10th, I guessed that by mid-March, enough new listings would be pouring into the MLS that a glut might be forming, and we would be up to five months’ worth of inventory.

Date NSDCC Listings Avg. LP $$/sf
Jan 14
649
$722/sf
Feb 4
667
$716/sf
Feb 10
679
$713/sf
Feb 25
678
$719/sf
March 6
727
$703/sf
March 11
744
$698/sf
March 16
746
$703/sf

There were 185 solds in February, so 746/185 = 4.03 months of inventory.

The number of new listings this month look similar to last year, but there is one glaring difference:

March 1-15 New Listings LP Avg $/sf
2012
245
$403/sf
2013
241
$505/sf

It looks like we’re having another year like 2003! I think that the big pop of appreciation has happened, and sellers are already enjoying much higher pricing. We’ll see more evidence as sales close in the coming months.

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