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Posted by on Dec 30, 2012 in Short Sales, Short Selling | 3 comments | Print Print

NSDCC Short-Sale Counts

Attorney ‘Kingside’ concurred with sdbuyer that the California debt-tax exemption mirrors the federal-law deadline, and will expire tomorrow unless something changes:

The California act (SB 401) was designed to conform with existing federal law and both are scheduled to expire at the end of the year. sdbuyer’s link to the FTB site is accurate as far as I know.

I heard that the California legislature was willing to extend if the Feds were going to extend. With a democratic supermajority sounds like it would happen. But who knows with the Fed extension up in the air at this point.

Its the kind of thing that could still happen after the fact, January or February or even later.

Has there been a big rush of short-sales being completed leading up to tomorrow’s deadline? Furthermore, was 2012 the Year of the Short Sale, as predicted?

Here are the quarterly stats for detached-homes sales from Carlsbad to La Jolla (NSDCC):

Quarter #Shortsales Avg. $/sf #Non-Shortsales Avg. $/sf SS% of Total
1Q11
70
$308/sf
483
$381/sf
13%
2Q11
52
$283/sf
676
$383/sf
8%
3Q11
82
$291/sf
617
$396/sf
12%
4Q11
74
$283/sf
508
$379/sf
13%
1Q12
78
$291/sf
499
$373/sf
14%
2Q12
89
$268/sf
810
$382/sf
10%
3Q12
99
$302/sf
744
$383/sf
12%
4Q12
80
$273/sf
687
$412/sf
10%

There wasn’t a big rush around here as the deadline approached, and the pricing trend is disturbing. The banks have stopped the foreclosure machine – there were 21 REO listings closed in 4Q12, at an average of $345/sf. But banks should wonder if short-selling is the answer, when you compare the pricing.

With potential short-sellers faced with losing out on possible future appreciation, and having to pay high rents if they sell, it seems unlikely there will be much change in the SS count next year.

If the debt-tax exemption doesn’t get extended, then potential short-sellers will have another good reason to not sell. With the California Homeowner’s Bill of Rights taking effect on Jan. 1st, it would be a great time for them to just not pay, and wait.

3 Comments

  1. Richard just saw this happen:

    Sellers closed escrow on 12/14/2012 for $425,000 and then decided they could not leave their friends and family behind in Arizona so they relisted and it came active the day after Christmas.

    They just accepted an offer at $448,000, a five percent increase in 14 days.

    Same model closed in April for $330,000 Short sale around the corner is in negotiations at $355,000.

    http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120061789-1404_Enchante_Way__CA_92056

  2. Stall looks like the tactic. If I was an investor in one of these properties I would wait a few months, see if I could get any “rent” from the current owners, then sell at the full value of my investment instead of taking a loss.

    As for the owner, its to their interest to wait till their property appreciates, so they should take care of it and help find a buyer that will eek themselves out a tiny profit perhaps with rising prices.

    Although, I’m not sure how long these rising prices will happen…once new builders start building the supply will increase. Jobs still look sluggish for the forseable future…some economists are talking recession next year too.

  3. score

    funny how people pile on the bandwagon when prices are going up.

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