The ultra-low mortgage rates have certainly contributed to our late-season run, which really kicked off at the end of summer.  Here are the NSDCC detached-home monthly sales counts:

^[1]

But another contributing factor could be the buyers who were waiting for better deals through spring/summer, and who got impatient and added extra mustard to make a deal.  Though the November average of $414/sf was a spike from recent months, it still looks range-bound vs. recent history – and it usually gets a little loose in the fourth quarter anyway.

Here is the monthly average cost-per-square-foot:

^[2]

Here’s a hunch: Sellers are going to come out in force for the spring selling season, and lay an egg.  They aren’t going to resist the urge to tack on the extra 10% to their list prices, and give buyers ample reason to be patient.

Look for the Big Standoff in 1Q13.