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Posted by on Oct 29, 2012 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments | Print Print

More On Pricing Stats

The latest Case-Shiller Index comes out tomorrow, and Zillow is predicting a 1.7% year-over-year increase in the 20-city composite number. Trying to bring more localized color to the pricing picture isn’t easy because there are differences in every segment.

These are the general statistics for detached sales in La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Carmel Valley, and RSF that closed during the June 1st-to-September 30th time period.  I was hoping that we’d see statistical evidence of rising prices – either fewer sales on the lower-end, indicating that the ‘market’ had been moving up, and/or that the average square footage was declining.  But neither has been happening much:

$0 – $800,000 Price Range

Year # of Sales Avg SF Avg. $/sf DOM
2010
73
1,886sf
$397/sf
58
2011
65
2,012sf
$355/sf
74
2012
89
2,122sf
$350/sf
60

$800,0001 – $1,000,000 Price Range

Year # of Sales Avg SF Avg. $/sf DOM
2010
77
2,426sf
$407/sf
47
2011
91
2,502sf
$374/sf
69
2012
117
2,414sf
$394/sf
70

$1,000,001 – $1,200,000 Price Range

Year # of Sales Avg SF Avg. $/sf DOM
2010
56
2,908sf
$421/sf
79
2011
51
2,908sf
$411/sf
85
2012
75
3,058sf
$393/sf
61

$1,200,001+ Price Range

Year # of Sales Avg SF Avg. $/sf DOM
2010
180
4,272sf
$551/sf
100
2011
183
4,436sf
$621/sf
122
2012
242
4,638sf
$552/sf
100

All Det. Properties Closed Jun 1-Sept 30

Year # of Sales Avg SF Avg. $/sf DOM
2010
386
3,255sf
$474/sf
78
2011
390
3,381sf
$491/sf
97
2012
523
3,486sf
$460/sf
81

The reason it feels so hot?  There are a lot more sales – 34% more than last year, which is quite a pop in such a short time frame.  But other than that, you can’t really say that there has been any significant increases that would indicate much-higher pricing, at least statistically. (the identical 2,908sf in the $1.0-$1.2 range is a fluke!)

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/zillow-forecasts-case-shiller-house.html