Shiller Needs One Year of Increases
Interviewer: You don’t think housing is on the road to recovery?
Shiller: I think it might be. There are a lot of positive indicators. People tend to overreact to these, and if you look at the trend down since 2006, it’s a pretty strong trend that we have to see reversed. You know maybe, you know, I might call it later this year that we’ve reached the bottom, but I’m not ready yet.
Interviewer: So this is an important note here. You’re considered one of the foremost experts on housing. Robert Shiller, as you sit here right now, you’re not willing to say that housing is back?
Shiller: Well, we’ve seen four attempts at recovery ever since the subprime crisis. But it’s seasonal. The seasonal has gotten stronger, it’s been growing, so nobody knows why and during the summer season, the question is, will this continue through the fall and winter? We’ll wait and see. If that happens, then, you know, I believe in momentum in the housing market. and we are starting — it looks like upward momentum, but I think it’s too soon to call.
Interviewer: What’s the tell then? what do you need to see before you’re willing to say that we’ve turned the corner for real?
Shiller: It least a solid year of price increases. and maybe other indicators, as well. but the other — it’s starting to look better. I have to admit. so, you know, for someone who is thinking of buying a home now, you also have to factor in that mortgage rates are at record lows. so, you know, I’m not telling people not to buy a house.