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Posted by on May 26, 2012 in Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments | Print Print

Bottom Bouncing

Even though we keep hoping for more inventory, new listings are down in every category around North SD County’s Coastal region, compared to the last two years.

New Listings of Detached Homes between April 21st and May 25th:

Year Short Sales REOs Non-SS/REO
2010
50
20
515
2011
53
28
533
2012
32
15
426

We thought this was going to be the Year of the Short Sale….and with 562 SFRs on the default list, you’d expect that we’d be seeing more than 1-2 short sales and/or REO listings per day.  But as we see more stories on the market improving, the more defaulters will think about hanging on. 

Somehow, sales are enduring nicely.

NSDCC Detached Closings between April 21 and May 25:

Year # of Sales Avg. SF Avg. $/SF Avg. DOM Med. DOM Median SP Med. $/SF
2010
284
2,812sf
$380/sf
63
37
$791,000
$331/sf
2011
279
3,039sf
$374/sf
74
49
$851,000
$320/sf
2012
298
3,013sf
$376/sf
73
32
$802,500
$316/sf

My comments on each category:

A. I think the fact that closed sales are holding up in spite of a lower inventory indicates two things. a) Buyers are plentiful, and determined to dig out the right buy for them – it would be easy to quit looking right now. b) With roughly the same number of closings as the last couple of years, there must be about the same number of serious sellers. We can live with fewer OPTs who are just testing the market.

B. We are averaging about the same sized house, just cheaper. In 2006, the average home sold was 2,902sf, but it cost $481/sf on average (22% cheaper now).

C. The lower median-days-on-market statistic shows how those listings priced right are flying off the shelf this year, but the average DOM reflects how much longer it takes the sellers and listing agents of over-priced properties to wake up – about the same as last year.

D. The media will tout that “Prices Are Going Up/Down” with any change in the median sales price, but we are smarter than that – all it means is that the mix of homes was different. All it will take is for 12 more high-end sales to be added by late-reporters to have the median sales price rise to $860,000+.

E. I think the median $/sf shows the real trend – slightly downward.

I guess this is what bouncing along the bottom feels like?

6 Comments

  1. To me there’s also the “panic factor”. People hear that prices are going up so they pull the trigger.

  2. The expectation of future housing inflation both motivates capable buyers and emboldens would-be sellers to sit tight. Hence no inventory.

    As has been said, it’s the “new normal”.

  3. I guess this is what bouncing along the bottom feels like?

    The 90′s bottom wasn’t like this.

  4. I agree, but lets not forget about the inventory that’s lurking in the shadows. Capable buyers are much more astute than they ever were, which tends to make them less forgiving and more cautious.

    IMO, the “new” normal is really the “perceived” normal.

    ———————————————–
    2.The expectation of future housing inflation both motivates capable buyers and emboldens would-be sellers to sit tight. Hence no inventory.

    As has been said, it’s the “new normal”.

  5. Europe is going to into a recession…Asia is slowing down and taxes/regulations are going up at the end of the year.

    I have a feeling that we’re going to be near this bottom for a few years unless something happens to simulate that.

  6. Jim – with inventory this tight and plenty of buyers, wouldn’t you expect prices to start going up? Do you think more stringent appraisals are keeping a lid on prices?

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