The latest Case-Shiller Index is out. An interesting quote or two from cnbc.com:
“The economic news in the last few months, probably going back to December, has shown a lot of improvement. The housing news has been a bit more mixed,” David Blizter, S&P index chairman, told CNBC. “The overall housing market is a little behind the general economy.”
The flat reading broke a five-month string of declines as the market has been pressured by a low demand, distressed sales and an overhang of pending foreclosures.
“This gives you a little more confidence that the housing market is bottoming because perhaps the most troubling aspect of the recent housing data has been the sagging of the Case-Shiller price index effectively since July 2011,” said Cary Leahey, managing director and senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.
“The fact that the so-called double dip in home prices is ending gives you a little more confidence that the market could improve over the next year and a half.”
San Diego’s seasonally-adjusted numbers:
May 09: 145.55
Jan 11: 158.91
Dec 11: 150.92
Jan 12: 150.51
My guess in 2009 of December’s number being the bottom didn’t turn out!
Here’s some good analysis from Calculated Risk about the lag that Case Shiller suffers from.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/03/house-prices-and-lagged-data.html
This Case Shiller is still from the 3 month rolling average of Nov-Dec-Jan. We know that the median price/sf was down in Feb 2012, so the next report will probably continue the trend down. March closing numbers are looking to be up and probably contain the first bits of the February-Early March surge. I figure that spring bounce will show up in the median numbers this month and next month. The case shiller index probably won’t show it until the July report.
Cali,
Are you saying that my guess might have been right? I knew I liked you – thanks for coming around!
Lol. It certainly could be close, what’s a couple of months in real estate.
@ livinincali
Depends on the rent doesn’t it?