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Posted by on Sep 21, 2011 in Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 1 comment | Print Print

Big Shuffle

For those focused on pricing, here’s another angle to examine what’s been happening lately.

We’ve been worried that the higher-end homes would cause pricing squishdown, but there hasn’t been any obvious big drops lately.  The Case-Shiller Index for San Diego has given back almost all of it’s increase generated since 2009, but it’s in slow-motion, and the average cost-per-square-foot and median sales price measurements have their limitations too.

For example, here are Carlsbad and Encinitas detached sales (combined) between Jan-Aug:

2010: 918 sales, avg. $303/sf

2011: 929 sales, avg. $291/sf 

A simple look, and not alarming – a measly 4% drop on price with a 1% increase in sales.

But let’s check the average square footage to see if you’re get more for your money, and how the number-of-sales-per-price-range has changed using the same data:

Price Range 2010 Sales 2010 Avg. SF 2011 Sales 2011 Avg. SF
$1,100,000+
96
4,419sf
101
4,334sf
900-$1.1M
90
3,650sf
80
3,512sf
$700-$900K
249
2,837sf
211
2,959sf
$500-$700K
416
2,108sf
384
2,281sf
0-$500,000
67
1,573sf
153
1,664sf

These are fairly large sample sizes, yet the action appears to be going in opposite directions. The higher-end homes look to be getting smaller, but in the under-$500,000 group not only is the average square footage growing, but there are almost 2.5 times as many sales this year than last!

Carmel Valley’s highest-end category has had a 70% increase in sales YOY, but much can be attributed to the surge of sales in the $2 million-plus Rancho Pacifica. In 2010, there were only three sales in RP between January and August, this year there have been twelve!

Price Range 2010 Sales 2010 Avg. SF 2011 Sales 2011 Avg. SF
$1,500,000+
23
5,422sf
39
6,034sf
$1.1-$1.5M
60
3,734sf
38
3,918sf
$900-$1100K
58
3,128sf
71
3,166sf
$700-$900K
96
2,420sf
87
2,552sf
0-$700,000
44
1,844sf
51
1,914sf

The other CV categories are showing a little weakness, but with their smaller sample sizes there is more room for variance. But generally it feels like there has been some hesitancy in the Carmel Valley steamroller lately.

Generally, today’s buyers are getting more bang for their buck – and at mortgage rates in low 4%s!

1 Comment

  1. “A measly 4% drop” on a $750K house is $30,000.00. I guess it is “measly” as long as it is somebody else’s money.

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