Clear Capital released its monthly Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report, reporting a year-over-year national price change in 2010 of -4.1 percent, and expects another -3.7 percent year-over-year change in 2011.
The HDI Market Report provides the most current (through December 2010) and granular analysis of how local markets performed compared to the national trend in home prices, as well as a 12-month forecast of what to expect in 2011.
“In terms of home prices, this past year has certainly been characterized by uncertainty,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician, Clear Capital. “Tax incentives and high levels of distressed sale activity had counter effects on home prices which contributed to the fragility of the markets.”
“Some housing markets are well on their way to recovery, while others are experiencing a renewed downturn reminiscent of the housing crash only two years ago,” added Dr. Villacorta. “Understanding which path a given market is likely to follow is dependent on several key factors, but the two clear drivers are local unemployment rates and the prevalence of distressed homes.”
Clear Capital Home Data Index: National Home Price Trends
(Jan. 2006 – Dec. 2011 Forecast)
National home prices in 2010 posted a -4.1 percent year-over-year price change, after a very turbulent year where prices increased 9.7 percent over a 21 week span (late March to mid August), only to be followed by a -9.4 percent price change over the following 19 weeks (September to December). Click for larger image:
In 2011, national and regional metrics will still provide general price indicators, but more granular analysis will be required for market participants to truly assess price movements. The wild spikes experienced in 2010 will likely be replaced with more gradual price trends this year. Price forecasts show varying levels of decline across all four regions in 2011, with local markets in the West expected to accumulate the largest overall losses.
California markets typically showed a faster rebound than other hard hit states as six of the 15 markets managed price gains (Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, and Fresno). The only major California market to decline was Sacramento (-1.4 percent price change).
Let’s check this guy in 12 months and see if he’s right.
That’s certainly a bear market prediction, with only 13 of 50 markets having a forecasted gain in price, and only five with a gain of more than 2%, while he forecasts 19 markets with a fall of 5% and 5 with a fall of 10% or more.
Washington, DC FTW
Time to sell at a huge profit!
Jim:
Can you give us a sense of how much Zillow is off, percentage-wise, and if it tends to be lower or higher than market….in NCCoastal. Thanks
I’m a bargain hunter but still looking to buy in the DC area when I move there later this year. The signals are very mixed. It’s appreciated way too much, and things are only down about 30% from 2007 (at least in the neighborhoods I’m looking in) but the rents have gone sky high during that time. Even at today’s prices, it’s still cheaper to buy than rent with 20% down at today’s mortgage rates. That’s a risky bet, but in my opinion what’s driven the prices to stay high there is high employment and high salaries. About 10% of DC has a family income greater than $200k. Nearly the same for the close-in areas of Maryland and Virginia. Double income federal employee households (or defense contractor equivalents) make for a very competitive housing market.