In case you haven’t noticed, prices HAVE fallen … by record numbers.
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In many zip codes this is true, scooter, which is why I am a bit confused by the “humble pie” comment in the video. I suspect that if someone calculated the average devaluation of property across San Diego County, her prior bearish prediction of something along the lines of 50% down may be pretty accurate. Vista, Oceanside, Escondido, East County, South Bay, Clairemont – all these areas have been pummeled.

If it were me, my position would be “I told you so. I called for massive devaluation and look at what has happened.” Good call Ms. Berkland, you were right. All that remain now are the top most desireable zips in the county. You can look at RSF, where Jim has nailed it – they are probably going down and going down hard. So it’s only a matter of time until RSF joins the ranks of other zips that have been punished badly. Some of the remaining zips are hanging tough so far – CV is the usual example. Can CV hang onto its lofty valuation in the face of massive declines county-wide? We’ll see.

At the end of the day, no humble pie can be served – the numbers are what they are and they are baaaaad. Good call.

Prices aren’t falling in areas you can purchase with FHA 3.5% loans. AKA the New Subprime, only this time taxpayers are on the hook not banks.

In case you haven’t noticed, prices HAVE fallen … by record numbers.

Jim the Realtor | November 21st, 2009 at 6:27 pm
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There’s no question about the high demand. As you know, I’m one of the few bears who conceded to high buyer interest/traffic all along.

I just question the size of the buyer pool that would qualify if interest rates were a more normal 7-9%, and if the majority of buyers had to use 20% down payments and have DTI ratios of 28/33%.

I also think a lot of these “all cash” deals are either hard-money borrowers (could be owner-occupiers or investors), cash-rich investors, or investment groups. It would be interesting to see how many end up refinancing their houses within a year of their all-cash purchase. Additionally, how many of these transactions are being done because cash-heavy investors cannot get a decent return in the fixed-income market? Even I have toyed with the idea of buying investment properties/MBSs because of all the manipulation.

Still, until (and IF) the govt stops manipulating the market, I have to agree that prices will be rather firm and inventory will remain low. Note my inventory prediction for December 1st on the prior thread — they are succeeding at keeping inventory low and prices high!

Desperation is not exactly a desireable component of making sound financial decisions…

Certainly we have seen enough desperation in this low-interest, low-inventory, govt. subsidized, low-ball steal-one-from-the-bank environment to keep transactions brisk, at least on the low end. What will become, however, of San Diego’s vast swath of mid to high-end properties? What will become of our beloved CV, RSF, LJ, MH, C-BAD, etc.?

Thanks for the comment and kind words. I’m amazed at how many people have commented on this single post…it looks more like an IM chat screen rather than a comment thread.

Anyhow, going back to the actual post, I think there’s a fine line between agents voicing their opinions and forcing their views onto their clients. Buyers and sellers can get all the stats and pictures they want, but they probably don’t know which HOAs are stricter than others, or which homes/condos have the most protected views. It’s the agent’s job to give the consumer the info and insight that can’t be found on sites like Zillow and Redfin.

Also, while I do volunteer at CCDC, I don’t think I’ve ever gotten a deal from there. Mostly I use this time to catch up on what’s going on downtown and to keep up with the development news(or given the current status of the economy, the lack of development). Almost all of my new clients come from my blog.

In San Diego, high prices prevent us from reaching this 68% rate, so we are at a lower rate, and as you say, we won’t reach that 68% rate.

So that still leaves a large pipeline of want-to-buyers, and when they sense an opportunity, they enter the market.

After the credit crunch, we had 9 years’ worth of backlog of priced-out buyers, who came out quickly and bought these REOs.

Yet I am still amazed that we are not running out of cash buyers in all price ranges.

However, if inventory were higher, their small numbers would become much more obvious.

There were also a lot of people that cashed out at bubble prices to wait for lower prices.

a lot of folks that were renting and did not buy during the peak simply kept quiet during parties and around the water cooler at work. the ones that were priced out would be given pitiful looks. the ones that choose not to buy would be given the speech that if they don’t buy they’ll be lifetime renters.

therefore, it gave everyone the perception that there were very few people holding out.