Monday, November 9th, 2009 at 12:47 PM
Defaulters Galore
There are 261 single-family homes in Encinitas/south Carlsbad (92024,92009, & 92011) on the auction + REO lists. Here is what they look like on a map, not including NODs:
Let’s add in the 212 NODs:
Posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009 at 12:47 PM in Foreclosures/REOs | 37 Comments » | 
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Wow, that’s scary. Can someone explain to me why prices aren’t lower and people are fighting over the REOs?
JK | November 9th, 2009 at 12:58 pmThanks goodness Carlsbad has all the dedicated “Open Space” or it would be completely covered! Someday the Carlsbad Golf Course will have one of these markers over it! It will resell for .25 cents on the $.
doughboy | November 9th, 2009 at 1:04 pmBlue skies, green shoots and red letter opportunities for everyone.
Rob Dawg | November 9th, 2009 at 1:07 pmJK, I’ll give it a shot:
1. The seemingly-high number is not obvious because the vast majority are not on the open market, and unless you go hunting for a map like this, you’d never know.
2. Many are part of the loan-mod experiment.
3. It may not have a big impact on market(?)
There have been 804 SFRs close this year in those same zips, so the demand has been pretty high. If all of the auction/REOs are dripped out over the next six months, it’ll add 44 per month.
It will be tough on the regular sellers though; the ones who are dreaming about full retail. Hopefully they’ll decide not to sell, and we’ll just battle it out between REOs and short sales.
Jim the Realtor | November 9th, 2009 at 1:08 pmHopefully they’ll decide not to sell, and we’ll just battle it out between REOs and short sales.
Good advise!
Susan | November 9th, 2009 at 1:29 pmI meant advice. Duh!
Susan | November 9th, 2009 at 1:29 pmLooks like I just need to listen to what I tell my kids…
Patience, Grasshopper, patience.
Jinx | November 9th, 2009 at 1:34 pmThe map makes it look worse than it is because the dots are so big.
Add in the condos, and we have 668 defaulted properties (including NODs).
According to city-data for these zips, the population is 101,301 and the number of housing units with a mortgage is 18,485.
668 divided by 18,485 = 3.6% of housing units with a mortgage are in default.
The map makes it look like about half.
Jim the Realtor | November 9th, 2009 at 1:54 pmHi Jim , any stats on on how many total are at least 90 days + delinquent in same zip codes?
vegas nrba | November 9th, 2009 at 2:04 pmDeadbeats, the days of free rent are numbered.
shadash | November 9th, 2009 at 2:42 pmI’d like to see a map of the same areas showing 2005 instances, for a visual comparison.
Kwaping | November 9th, 2009 at 2:58 pmIn 2005, basically nobody was ever late on their payment. If they lost their job or otherwise couldn’t pay, they could simply refinance because the value of their property had gone up since they bought it.
Geotpf | November 9th, 2009 at 3:18 pmJim, the data you’ve culled from all the various sources to put this map together is great information, if not fantastic! I don’t know any other realtor who has the technical expertise, knowledge, experience, and capability to do this. Thanks a million for providing such a service without parallel!
I’ve noticed that for the highly desirable neighborhoods in the better school districts the foreclosure activity seems to have little effect on prices. There are still too few regular sales of quality product in these areas to make much of a difference. And, the trickle of trustee sales snapped up on the court house steps so far have been flipped quickly at retail prices.
househippie | November 9th, 2009 at 4:10 pmWhat does all this mean to every working stiff?
Are you sure this map wasn’t taken from a dart board.
Dudesdad | November 9th, 2009 at 4:47 pmJim,
BAC is starting to drop assets again, received 3 in the last week. Time to get bust again.
JimG | November 9th, 2009 at 6:31 pmTypo– meant busy not bust.
JimG | November 9th, 2009 at 6:31 pmNow if we could just get rid of all that blue stuff on the left…… we would really see some big price drops. Spread a rumor it is contaminated by San Onofre Nuc plant maybe? Swine flu?
BottomFisher | November 9th, 2009 at 7:59 pmWhat does all this mean to every working stiff?
I was going to delete this post after figuring they only add up to 3.6% of the total housing stock with mortgages, but didn’t.
The sheer numbers are what’s important – with 660+ defaulters, it could be in the near future that we see REOs coming on the MLS every day, then a few per day in the e NSD County Coastal region
I still think if that happens it would energize the buyers because they all want to steal one from the bank. But if there were 3-5 REO per day coming on the market, it would likely freeze up out of dis-belief.
Jim the Realtor | November 9th, 2009 at 9:14 pmWatch out below the high-end is getting absolutely creamed. Short sale approved at close to the 2000 price if you figure in landscaping.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090031676-1717_Bella_Laguna_Encinitas_CA_92024
pemeliza | November 9th, 2009 at 9:50 pmDid everyone see this?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/nov/09/mansion-missing-fixtures/
Blue Streak | November 9th, 2009 at 10:06 pmDid everyone see this?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/nov/09/mansion-missing-fixtures/
Blue Streak | November 9th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
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Though it’s not a popular stance, I actually feel sorry for Ms. Brown. She was trying to do a good deed, and from what I understand, she wasn’t doing it for the money, but rather because she wanted to help people (hearsay — don’t know this for a fact).
My husband has been in that house and said it was really spectacular. Some of the doors were imported and were hundreds (thousands?) of years old. Very interesting stuff, and I understand her desire to take them with her. I think the problem with what she did is that she took them after she was foreclosed on. Poor decision on her part.
CA renter | November 10th, 2009 at 12:30 amTaking a bathroom mirror or a wall fixture is one thing. But A MILLION DOLLARS of fixtures?!? That’s more than the price of most homes in the SD area!
That lady better “find” the stuff pretty fast.
François Caron | November 10th, 2009 at 6:30 amJust another jerk move from another Deadbeat. Would you expect anything less?
CA renter,
Let me ask you a couple of questions…
Why would she build a drug treatment center in a residential neighborhood?
Why not build a drug treatment center in an isolated location where addicts can’t call their friends to “score” more drugs?
Why do drug addicts need massive 100 year old doors?
To me this just seems like another pipe dream cooked up by someone given access to more $$$ than they should have ever had. These are the kind of stupid ideas banks pass up on a daily basis when people apply for business loans.
shadash | November 10th, 2009 at 6:44 amQuestion? Do some people purposely go into default in order to qualify for the loan modification?
—-
BTW, love your blog. It’s a shame ya know. I saved my money, ran my business, ran my life, etc. without knowing that such things as “short sales”, non-recourse loans, government bailouts, and loan modifications could possibly even exist on the scale they are now. I mean really, who’d of thought? Who’d of thought that you could borrow money from a bank then if your house value goes down you can dump the house and not be responsible for the loan. Sure, your credit rating may suffer but nobody is coming after you. Who’d of thought that you can twist the arm of the bank to lower your payment/interest/principal. Who’d of thought that the BORROWERS are the ones feeling swindled by unscrupulous mortgage brokers?
I’m left thinking that all this suffering is well-deserved. Sorry to be so mean but that’s the way I see it. Deadbeats suck.
chris g | November 10th, 2009 at 7:15 am@ lady brown house: 15 Bedrooms wow! not bad for 2,3m. The price offers quite a discount compared to the 13m in BUILDING COST. Should be a nice buy for someone with a clever businessidea, imho (do I miss something here?) …
regards, KBX
KBX | November 10th, 2009 at 8:12 amI gotta think the Carmel Valley map looks similar.
The Blur | November 10th, 2009 at 8:21 amGee. Can you make the bubbles any bigger on the map to distort and skew the results anymore?
Steve | November 10th, 2009 at 9:26 amQuestion? Do some people purposely go into default in order to qualify for the loan modification?
I have a coworker who makes >$100k and did just that. He stopped making payments in January. He can easily afford his mortgage and has had no adverse change to his income since he bought in 2004. He doesn’t intend on making any payments until they lower the principle and interest rate…
It’s criminal that this is socially acceptable.
garbler | November 10th, 2009 at 12:07 pmIt’s criminal that this is socially acceptable.
garbler | November 10th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
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Not any more, apparently. The government is **encouraging** the deadbeats to do this!
Those who tried to do the right thing are the suckers now.
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BTW, I’m not condoning theft, and think everyone who destroys forclosed/foreclosing houses should be punished. But again, moral hazard… If the govt isn’t prosecuting the scum who are taking their pergraniteel kitchens, then Suzy Brown would naturally feel entitled to take the very rare artifacts she used in building the house. It’s entirely possible she actually bought these things with her own money, as opposed to the deadbeats who got 100% loans and HELOC’ed the rest for their kitchens.
Again, not condoning it, but with what the govt is doing, where does one draw the line between right and wrong? That is the problem that will haunt us for many years to come, IMHO.
CA renter | November 10th, 2009 at 2:03 pmChris G–Well put I can understand your feelings. What I can’t understand is that some who feel the same was as you think that they have somehow been vicitimzed.
Local Boy | November 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pmFunny most of them are still unaffordable. I randomly picked a few and looked at est values at the foreclosure tab. Some are running as high as 290/sqft!!! It’s even higher than retail.
Jim what do u think?
NKC | November 10th, 2009 at 8:06 pmLocalBoy,
They may feel victimized because they are going to be the ones who share the taxes in the end. Or maybe they feel regret for not leveraging up and buying a McMansion like everyone else. Or maybe they are motivated by a perverse sense of justice and are offended that it’s not being carried out.
Do I, myself, feel victimized? I’m numb.
chris g | November 10th, 2009 at 11:12 pmI am sure I can find a way to be a victim too–but I don’t, I choose just to move forward with the information that I have today, not dwelling on the past. The problem is this- victimization leads to unhappiness and anger which in-turn leads to violence–Too many vicitms today–people should get over it and move-on.
Local Boy | November 11th, 2009 at 7:17 amHousing prices always have been and always will be set at the margins. The small percentages of homes that sell every year create the market value for all similar homes in an area regardless of whether those homes are on the market, so dismissing this distress data b/c it’s only 3.6% of the number of homes in the zip code is a mistake, IMO.
Distressed properties as a percentage of recent sales or homes on the market is a much better indicator.
Woodrow | November 11th, 2009 at 11:04 amLocal Boy – I have been victimized. If they were actually foreclosing on all the deadbeats in my area who haven’t paid a dime in 6 months, home prices would be $100,000 lower.
The banks’ policies of modifications and debt forgiveness mean that I will be paying more for a home than I should. I’ve already spent the last decade working extra jobs, paying off all my debts, living cheap in a crappy apartment while accumulating a down payment. Now I will have to pay a much higher price specifically because of banks coddling irresponsible people. If someone was directly costing you such a huge amount of money, you wouldn’t want to “get over it” either.
Hibryd | November 11th, 2009 at 12:03 pmVery true, Hibryd.
The responsible people who tried to live within their means and didn’t take on debt they couldn’t pay back are the only victims in this whole quagmire.
CA renter | November 11th, 2009 at 6:08 pmUs victims can only write our congressmen, vote, etc. That’s all one can do. I agree that feeling victimized for doing the right things in life is doubly painful. Moving on.
chris g | November 13th, 2009 at 9:07 am