Comments on: Frenzy Summary

By: Weekly summary of real estate news, Memphis comments, and other interesting stuff – October 25th - Memphis Real Estate Buzz

Sun, 25 Oct 2009 06:14:47 +0000

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By: GoJuice02

GoJuice02 — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:03:25 +0000

I’ve always been told housing was a lagging indicator. Guess that was wrong. Right now looks like housing is pulling us kicking and screaming OUT of the recession.
Jakob | October 23rd, 2009 at 11:06 am

A tax credit is helping. Need to see how the end of handouts and an inevitable release of distressed/foreclosed properties into the market affects the buyers and sellers.

By: Jakob

Jakob — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:06:31 +0000

I’ve always been told housing was a lagging indicator. Guess that was wrong. Right now looks like housing is pulling us kicking and screaming OUT of the recession.

By: sdnerd

sdnerd — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:30:28 +0000

‘the new bubble sitters sit, accumulate wealth, and then buy when they become the old bubble bloggers’

Remember though, a fair amount of demand is probably being pulled forward with the tax credits, etc.

Also the number of move-up buyers is struggling to get off the floor.

Unemployment is up, wages are down. College graduates now are entering one of the worst job markets in decades.

Interest rates are pathetic, so cash savings aren’t really doing much for people.

Rents are down though, so if you can stay employed and live below your means for a few years sure you could save up a DP.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m a big believer that there is a ton of cash out there, and people making lots of money. But I think the ranks have been thinned out a bit, and there could be a decent gap ahead.

‘the vets know its a matter of time till they capitulate and move into the market’

Stop reminding us.

By: Genius

Genius — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:14:45 +0000

I’m guessing you own a house JT. Amirite?

By: Geotpf

Geotpf — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:12:42 +0000

Half of Jim’s 30k miles are from him driving to and from Pala.

By: Old Timer

Old Timer — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:05:09 +0000

Jim, Your right, the WSJ numbers look wrong and there’s no explanation. You’ve probably seen the DQ 9/09 chart listing monthly median price change YOY on SFR resales.

Carmel Valley down -9.6.
Carlsbad (broken out by 4 regions) from up +13.8 to down -6.4.
Encinitas down -14.3.

You’re estimates of prices declines look right to me. Anyone have a chart from peak trough? DQ can make a custom but $250.00 is a little steep…

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SDUT-Charts/ZIPSDUT.aspx

By: JT

JT — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:04:16 +0000

Unfortunately – I dont think the train of well funded buyers will ever really stop. Go to any blog and you can quickly tell who the veterans and the newbies are.

The vets have been there since 05-06 are tired. With the exception of a few delusional permabears who will sit forever, the vets know its a matter of time till they capitulate and move into the market.

The newbies come in and think the bubble really started when they discovered it – they think prices “still” have 40% off to go and will be sitting til that happens.

This process will continue to renew itself. The old bubble sitters tire and buy, the new bubble sitters sit, accumulate wealth, and then buy when they become the old bubble bloggers, replenished by a new crop. The cycle continues.

Thus, I dont think well ever see the # of well heeled buyers diminish for years to come. The issue thus is inventory. If it stays diminished like this, we will have a long slow, dragged out bottom where prices dont move up or down in either direction. If in the unlikely event banks do dump a flood of inventory, watch out.

By: Adam

Adam — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:29:27 +0000

Thanks for the post Jim!

By: duncbdunc

duncbdunc — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 06:21:36 +0000

Jim, you are way too funny. That line just might top sdnerd’s “ultimate nut shot” post a few months ago. Pow!

Actually, no I take that back. Close second though!