Rob Dawg said to keep an eye on seasonality, and I think we can all concur that the real estate market around the holidays is “different” than other months.

I took out RSF and La Jolla, and ran stats on Carlsbad-to-Carmel Valley detached.

Let’s compare 3Q to 4Q:

If you take out 2002 and 2006, the average decline in sales is -26% between 3Q and 4Q.

Last year was the only year where there were double-digit declines in both sales and average cost-per-square foot. What does that mean?

It was my experience that there was a lousy selection of homes for sale (accounting for lower pricing), and/or terrible pricing that left most sellers waiting.

The numbers for July and August of 2008/2009:

Sales: 292/268
$/sf: $388/$340

After the late-reporters we should see that we’re on the same track for sales this quarter as 3Q08, but running around -12% on pricing. Assuming that a trickle of REOs are coming to keep sales about ‘normal’ (-20% or so for 3Q-to-4Q), and we should see them keep pricing 10% to 15% under 4Q08.

If it goes like that, it’ll be setting up a boisterous first half of 2010, with buyers hearing about more people “stealing one from the bank”.