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Posted by on Aug 24, 2009 in Thinking of Buying? | 11 comments | Print Print

July Y-O-Y

Thanks to IW for sending along this link to Barry’s coverage of NAR statistics:

Link to The Big Picture Blog post poking holes in NAR stats 

I don’t give a hoot about NAR statistics either, because all that matters is your local market.

 
Let’s look at the Carlsbad-to-Carmel Valley Detached market stats for July:

Year # of Sales Avg. $/sf
2001
216
$286
2002
252
$285
2003
311
$326
2004
267
$418
2005
201
$433
2006
162
$451
2007
190
$440
2008
174
$438
2009
162
$347

Tread very carefully – sales are the leading indicator.

11 Comments

  1. I like Barry Ritholtz’s blog. I’ve been a reader since ’07 and find that every once in a awhile he has a really good article.

  2. Here’s the link to the original article Barry was getting the info from.

    http://mhanson.com/archives/140

    Mark Hanson, aka “Mr. Mortgage”, makes it clear that stimulus or not, we need some more market correction before we can stabilize.

  3. The graph in CR’s post is telling, and combined with the pathetic cure rates is downright scary.

    Given the low rates, home buyer credits, double-digit drops in prices, etc…, this is a rather anemic year for sales. Once first timers are wrung out and investors are finished picking over the carcass that is the low end, where will sales come from? People will either be forced to stay in their homes for a very long time (no move up buyers!) or default and get back in once they’ve repaired their credit and raised a down payment. Once the decline finishes in a few years, appreciation will likely be very flat for quite a while.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/fitch-dramatic-decrease-in-cure-rates.html

    Delinquency cure rates refer to the percentage of delinquent loans returning to a current payment status each month. Cure rates have declined from an average of 45% during 2000-2006 to the currently level of 6.6%. …

    ***

    In addition to prime cure rates dropping to 6.6%, Alt-A cure rates have dropped to 4.3%, from an average of 30.2%, and subprime is down to 5.3% from an average of 19.4%. ‘Whereas prime had previously been distinct for its relatively high level of delinquency recoveries, by this measure prime is no longer significantly outperforming other sectors,’ said Slump.

    … Furthermore, up to 25% of loans counted as cures are modified loans, which have been shown to have an increased propensity to re-default.

  4. ::: YAWN :::

    Someone wake me up when we get 1999 prices.

  5. greenlander, it’s 2029 and the Third Great Depression and World War III are here. You’re in luck!

  6. Is it different this time?
    Man the MSM is sure trying to pump up the stock market and housing market.I think we need to send kudlow over at cnbc some pom poms and a skirt.Guy is a total bullsh@tter.I cant stand to listen to him anymore.

  7. Not many signs of a healthy market, at least not locally. Thanks for being honest about it Jim

  8. So we are at 2003 pricing for the prime north county coastal areas…nice!

    Its really almost 2010. Backing up pricing 7 years is a big deal

  9. still cant get a decent house in Carlsbad for less then $400k. Let me know when something comes up…

  10. I don’t think you’re going to see a decent house in Carlsbad for less than $400,000 – I think there will be decent houses selling under $400,000, but they’ll be going so fast that to see them, you’ll have to really be looking.

    There are buyers and agents that are refreshing their home search every five minutes….

  11. Jim, I know you’re a busy man, but could you please compile this data for attached housing in the same area?

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