Monday, August 24th, 2009 at 11:26 AM
July Y-O-Y
Thanks to IW for sending along this link to Barry’s coverage of NAR statistics:
Link to The Big Picture Blog post poking holes in NAR stats
I don’t give a hoot about NAR statistics either, because all that matters is your local market.
Let’s look at the Carlsbad-to-Carmel Valley Detached market stats for July:
| Year | # of Sales | Avg. $/sf |
| 2001 | ||
| 2002 | ||
| 2003 | ||
| 2004 | ||
| 2005 | ||
| 2006 | ||
| 2007 | ||
| 2008 | ||
| 2009 |
Tread very carefully – sales are the leading indicator.
Posted on Monday, August 24th, 2009 at 11:26 AM in Monthly Sales, Thinking of Buying? | 11 Comments » | 
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I like Barry Ritholtz’s blog. I’ve been a reader since ’07 and find that every once in a awhile he has a really good article.
chrisL | August 24th, 2009 at 11:55 amHere’s the link to the original article Barry was getting the info from.
http://mhanson.com/archives/140
Mark Hanson, aka “Mr. Mortgage”, makes it clear that stimulus or not, we need some more market correction before we can stabilize.
Rpvrenter | August 24th, 2009 at 12:59 pmThe graph in CR’s post is telling, and combined with the pathetic cure rates is downright scary.
Given the low rates, home buyer credits, double-digit drops in prices, etc…, this is a rather anemic year for sales. Once first timers are wrung out and investors are finished picking over the carcass that is the low end, where will sales come from? People will either be forced to stay in their homes for a very long time (no move up buyers!) or default and get back in once they’ve repaired their credit and raised a down payment. Once the decline finishes in a few years, appreciation will likely be very flat for quite a while.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/fitch-dramatic-decrease-in-cure-rates.html
Delinquency cure rates refer to the percentage of delinquent loans returning to a current payment status each month. Cure rates have declined from an average of 45% during 2000-2006 to the currently level of 6.6%. …
***
In addition to prime cure rates dropping to 6.6%, Alt-A cure rates have dropped to 4.3%, from an average of 30.2%, and subprime is down to 5.3% from an average of 19.4%. ‘Whereas prime had previously been distinct for its relatively high level of delinquency recoveries, by this measure prime is no longer significantly outperforming other sectors,’ said Slump.
… Furthermore, up to 25% of loans counted as cures are modified loans, which have been shown to have an increased propensity to re-default.
Ronald McMansion | August 24th, 2009 at 1:07 pm::: YAWN :::
Someone wake me up when we get 1999 prices.
greenlander | August 24th, 2009 at 2:13 pmgreenlander, it’s 2029 and the Third Great Depression and World War III are here. You’re in luck!
sdbri | August 24th, 2009 at 2:42 pmIs it different this time?
arizonadude | August 24th, 2009 at 4:12 pmMan the MSM is sure trying to pump up the stock market and housing market.I think we need to send kudlow over at cnbc some pom poms and a skirt.Guy is a total bullsh@tter.I cant stand to listen to him anymore.
Not many signs of a healthy market, at least not locally. Thanks for being honest about it Jim
Mark | August 25th, 2009 at 7:30 amSo we are at 2003 pricing for the prime north county coastal areas…nice!
Its really almost 2010. Backing up pricing 7 years is a big deal
doughboy | August 25th, 2009 at 8:00 amstill cant get a decent house in Carlsbad for less then $400k. Let me know when something comes up…
bubba | August 25th, 2009 at 8:20 amI don’t think you’re going to see a decent house in Carlsbad for less than $400,000 – I think there will be decent houses selling under $400,000, but they’ll be going so fast that to see them, you’ll have to really be looking.
There are buyers and agents that are refreshing their home search every five minutes….
Jim the Realtor | August 25th, 2009 at 8:25 amJim, I know you’re a busy man, but could you please compile this data for attached housing in the same area?
KBoy | August 26th, 2009 at 8:14 am