“We’re very unlikely to implement another moratorium,” Wheeler said. But he noted that Treasury would closely monitor how many foreclosed homes were dumped onto the market, suggesting that officials could take other steps to prevent a flood of lender-owned properties.

America’s Most Troubled Luxury Neighborhoods
The Collapse in Prices Has Finally Come Home to the Rich

Has the housing market scraped bottom? Not in some of the wealthier neighborhoods — places like New York City’s Greenwich Village, Santa Monica, Calif. and Chicago’s Lincoln Park. They held up nicely while the rest of the country slumped last year. This year such Tiffany zip codes are on track to fall 15 percent to 25 percent.

Why haven’t you heard about this? Statistics lag. With relatively low unemployment, high-end addresses don’t have foreclosures to hasten capitulation. …

There is a still-growing supply of wildly overpriced, unsold homes–60,000 U.S. properties priced above $2 million listed on Realtor.com. Experts get these gloomy vibes by dividing inventory by the current monthly rate of purchases.

“Any result over seven months generally means falling prices,” says David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv in Brookfield, Wis. In some tony neighborhoods the level of glut is higher than the national average of ten months.

* Tulips again hit 10 times the annual salary of a skilled craftsman

* Pets.com (the sock puppet guys) once again reaches $1B market capitalization

* The Nikkei 225 hits 39,000 again

Personally, I’m not holding my breath.

It is absolutely true that the market will recover in the sense of having normal sales volume in the mid and upper tiers, but prices (adjusted for income) required to generate that volume will not match the bubble heights in our lifetimes.

Poolside conversations are still, “when the market recovers, I will sell.” The other day, I did hear, “God, this has been going on for 3 years, when will it end?”. . .

I think it is finally starting to sink in that there IS no quick recovery, and five years from now, home prices will be about what they are today. . .those option-ARMS will have reset – so lookout below!

Many of the short sales currently listed will become foreclosures.I wonder if there is any data out as to the number of home sales and refinances from 2003-2007.Trying to figure an estimate of how many years it will take to absorb the distressed inventory.Figure at least 50% of all those sales and refi’s will go bust.Take that number and divide by the number of sales we have currently and might get a good idea.

That quote jumped out at me when I first read this article. My thought was that the only thing slowing down the actual recovery was the piecemeal, dragged-out approach to getting rid of the foreclosures in general. If they’d just dump them all at market, instead of imposing moratoriums and such, we’d get this thing over with in a jiffy. Pull the damn bandaid off already!

Here’s an interesting point by Mark ‘Mr. Mortage’ Hanson:

“Something to keep an eye on…in every mid-to-high end area that I have studied there is an overwhelming number of once listed properties coming up for rent. The thought process is “lets rent for a year or two and sell when the market comes back”. We know that won’t happen — but what will happen is that the massive supply of mid-to-upper end rentals priced very reasonably relative to the cost to buy and own will pull prices down faster and further.”

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/

Looking at the sea of cookie-cutter houses in his neighborhood, and the prices & estimates they are at, we have a long, long way to go (down). Remember, all those bubble dollars must be returned, one way or another.

Remember when I said this last round of flippers had better be early, extra nimble and get their renovations done quick or else face trying to sell into the teeth of a second wave? How’d you like to be jammed up in plan check right about now burning money?

Seriously, I’d love to have the url history from Don Lee’s computer. CR, Bubbleinfo, E.D., etc.

As if the “recovery” ever started.