Thursday, July 2nd, 2009 at 8:46 AM
2Q09 Contest Preview
On July 23rd we’re going to determine the winner of the latest contest to guess the number of 2Q09 detached sales, but here’s a preview.
As of this morning, the MLS is reporting 5,683 detached closings for 2Q09, at $223.19/sf. There is typically about 10% more added by late-reporting agents, which would be around 6,250. But with more-stringent MLS police enforcement recently, and a slightly earlier date, the final number may be lower.
Duplicate numbers happen every time, but in this contest there was only one double, 6,021, and the two guesses were logged in within four minutes of each other. They are my pick to win!
Here are the guesses:
| Guess | Guesser |
| 4,850 | T |
| 5,250 | tj and the bear |
| 5,323 | Al in IC |
| 5,325 | Kingside |
| 5,358 | Kirk |
| 5,406 | Phil |
| 5,451 | Del Sur Renter |
| 5,500 | carmelgirl |
| 5,512 | 3clicks from da beach |
| 5,553 | JAP |
| 5,577 | justme |
| 5,578 | whatif |
| 5,580 | mtb |
| 5,675 | Wes |
| 5,678 | Kwaping |
| 5,681 | The Wood |
| 5,742 | Neil Diamond |
| 5,767 | Stephen Waits |
| 5,800 | propertysearch |
| 5,840 | Happs |
| 5,846 | mybleachhouse |
| 5,900 | Genius |
| 5,950 | Erica |
| 5,955 | Strider |
| 5,983 | CA renter |
| 5,991 | osidebuyer |
| 6,000 | doughboy |
| 6,001 | AlexSD |
| 6,021 | bobfather99 |
| 6,021 | Jaclyn |
| 6,037 | KO |
| 6,090 | Poorhouse |
| 6,116 | IRE |
| 6,127 | Nathan |
| 6,200 | JG |
| 6,250 | KlangOside |
| 6,351 | m |
| 6,375 | Sol |
| 6,378 | Scooter |
| 6,400 | Myriad |
| 6,551 | Casasolana |
| 6,560 | The Blur |
| 6,565 | Bryce |
| 6,601 | UCgal |
| 6,625 | REB |
| 6,700 | OCVulture |
| 6,720 | Local Boy |
| 6,848 | FuturesWatcher |
| 6,856 | pigpen |
| 6,942 | FirstTimeRenter |
| 7,001 | greenlander |
| 7,017 | Mike C |
| 7,050 | shoppingaround |
| 7,179 | mab |
The “Day at the Track” winner will receive six tickets for box seats right above the finish line at Del Mar, with waitress service!
Here are the previous counts:
| Year | # of Sales | $$/sf |
| 2000 | 6,620 | $174.86 |
| 2001 | 6,358 | $196.19 |
| 2002 | 7,358 | $221.47 |
| 2003 | 7,371 | $254.73 |
| 2004 | 7,960 | $377.54 |
| 2005 | 7,724 | $361.65 |
| 2006 | 5,767 | $368.96 |
| 2007 | 4,899 | $357.88 |
| 2008 | 5,020 | $278.15 |
Posted on Thursday, July 2nd, 2009 at 8:46 AM in Contests | 15 Comments » | 
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I imagine all of you saw the jobs report this morning.I guess we are are at 9.5% unemployment.So we still have 90.5% people employed.
I went over to walmart yesterday and the place was packed.Some people still have money.
Anyone going to neverland this weekend?I am practicing my moonwalk.
arizonadude | July 2nd, 2009 at 9:36 amI blame CAR for the inflated numbers. Ohhhh, those dirty rats. Can I revise my numbers
3clicks from da beach | July 2nd, 2009 at 10:22 amJims numbers graphed: http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/6253/sdhomeslaes.png
Interesting to see the big jump in $/sf
dafox | July 2nd, 2009 at 10:44 amcome on 6000!
doughboy | July 2nd, 2009 at 12:06 pmArizonadude, I’m with you on “some people still have money”. This is something I’ve been discussing with my wife lately. I’ve noticed that a lot of little strip-mall businesses have been going belly-up lately. Then I had an epiphany – people still have to buy food, clothes, TVs, and even cars. What this weakened economy is really doing is separating the wheat from the chaff. Those businesses with superior product and/or customer service will thrive while those who were shoddy to begin with are getting pushed out of business, and rightfully so. (Automakers, insurance companies, and banks excepted).
This is actually a very healthy thing for our country in the long run. I think of it like this: America has been partying it up lately. We then went to bed and woke up with a massive hangover. What’s happening right now is that we’re vomiting all the bad stuff out, so that we can start to recover.
We will come out of this stronger, better, and *hopefully* wiser.
Kwaping | July 2nd, 2009 at 12:45 pmIf you average just the low number and the high number you get 6,015.
And, although my optimism is being severely tested right now I’ll say this; 2009 is an improvement over the 2006, 2007 & 2008. And, close to 2001.
Mozart | July 2nd, 2009 at 1:18 pmdafox, thanks for the graph, it’s much easier to see trends that way (no offense Jim, thanks for the data)
osidebuyer | July 2nd, 2009 at 2:00 pmThe local chevron is closing it’s doors today.Johnny carinos closed up shop.The blue oaks shopping center in rocklin is totally dead.Shops are dropping like flies in there.Mervyns was the anchor but there out too.Dollar tree and carls jr are busy though.
Is DLTR a buy or sell?
arizonadude | July 2nd, 2009 at 2:24 pmThanks for the graph dafox!
Jim the Realtor | July 2nd, 2009 at 2:51 pmArizonadude: People still need to buy gas. If that Chevron closed then they were doing something wrong, simple as that. Same with the others. I stand by my previous statements.
Kwaping | July 2nd, 2009 at 3:36 pmI hope it comes in even under what you think, Jim. My guess was 5950 and I now live *walking distance* from the Del Mar race track!
-Erica
Erica Douglass | July 2nd, 2009 at 3:38 pm“Those businesses with superior product and/or customer service will thrive while those who were shoddy to begin with are getting pushed out of business, and rightfully so. (Automakers, insurance companies, and banks excepted)”
I used to think this way too, but the fact is winners and losers are somewhat determined by forces outside control of consumers and producers.
Probably more accurate to say those companies better ‘run’ are still alive.
Running a business well is just not something found in most CEO’s who’ve established a temporary oligopoly to hide their weakness. For this to have broken down we are better off too.
JimB | July 2nd, 2009 at 4:02 pmkwaping,
arizonadude | July 2nd, 2009 at 5:29 pmI’m not disagreeing with anything you said.The local chevron did something wrong but not sure what.It was a brand new station.The bank took the building back.
I’ll go with 5700
doug r | July 3rd, 2009 at 11:10 amDoes the price per square foot refer to house alone? How do condos fit into this measure?
penelope | July 3rd, 2009 at 12:16 pmI’m new to this area of study and I’m just wondering how the sq ft measure for homes takes into account the various lot sizes and other variables?
Thanks for your reply,
P