This us not a bottom it’s just how the cycle works. If banks weren’t given all the free money by tarp prices would be through the floor.

The vacancy rate on apartments countywide did drop. It dropped something like 1%, down to 4%. I would hardly call that a “skyrocketing” figure. I think as usual the media just wanted a story and the headlines looked shocking–3% is considered “full” in apartment management. Compared to some other areas that are experience 15-20% vacancies, SD is looking solid. Keep in mind that there are only a few new buildings being built, or planned.

As far as all of those sales in Vista. Do you know if they are being bought primarily as owner occupied or rental? If it is the latter it will be interesting to see if they can be rented as easily as the “investors” believe they can be rented.

I believe you are seeing apartment complex vacancies skyrocketing. If these are bought as rentals it should be interesting. If you lose out on buying one of these properties you might be able to buy it out of foreclosure in a couple of years?

What do you think?

That’s a rather superficial read on recent history.

Current circumstances are *nothing* like 2002, and if you don’t realize that then you can’t possibly understand why the Fed’s actions are guaranteeing further devastation in housing.

To begin with San Diego had some sort of problem- where else does a city of 2million warrant a 500k average home? While a great city, SD is not a Manhattan where the use of property can earn such premiums.

Even today I went to a 1996 2300SQ home and they want 800k for it. It’s probably actually worth around 200-300k.

Somebody’s going to eat one hell of loss.

You’re completely discounting the FED. In 2002, the FED lowered rates to 1%, a historic low at that time, and look where house/commodity/inflation went from there on. If it weren’t for the late 2008 margin call on the economy, oil would be at $200 and inflation over 6%. Now, the FED has outdone itself on a historical basis. FED rates are at 0%, mortgages are at historic lows, just like 2002 only on a grander scale. All that money sloshing around will find something to buy, oil, gold, houses, tulips, etc.

You say that, but historically people move every 7 years. Even if they like their place their circumstances can and generally will change — family, income, employment, etc. If they are seriously underwater they can’t move without defaulting.

Not sure I agree. If you’re renting a house at the same price, might as well buy. Sure, it could go down, but you could also win the lottery or get hit by lightening.

People aren’t rational, but they try to be. If you can pay the same amount per month and get equity and a tax break, that’s a good deal. Futures be damned.