bubbleinfo.com

More lowlights – this will be it for awhile, promise:

From sddt.com

The 3,705 notices of default (NODs) filed in February were a record high for San Diego County, according to statistics released by the county assessor’s office.  The number is a 15.4 percent increase in filings compared to January.  The last time the number of NODs reached a comparable level was in April 2008 when NOD filings climbed to 3,601. 

From September to November 2008, there were fewer than 1,500 NODs recorded each month after a change in the California Civil Code that required lenders to contact troubled borrowers 30 days before filing an NOD.

Since December, the number of filings per month has been above 3,000, which was more similar to figures seen throughout most of 2008.  The median number of NOD filings 2008 was 3,212. 

Year over year, there were 493 more NODs filed last month compared to 2008, a 15 percent increase.

Trustee deeds, were more stable than NOD filings.  While there were 40 more trustee’s deeds filed in February compared to January, the 1,365 filings were down more than 40 percent from the peak number of filings in July 2008.  The number of trustee’s deeds filed during 2008 hit its low in November with 1,144 filings.

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February 2009

NODs = 3,705

Trustee Deeds = 1,365

MLS sales = 2,169 (attached, detached, and 2-4 units)

Think that the trustee deeds will overtake the MLS sales by when, September? Or sooner? 

The recent bailout legislation included raising the super-conforming loan limits back to where they were last year – $697,500 in San Diego County.

The Fannie/Freddie websites noted the change a couple of weeks ago.

But have you seen any lenders funding super-conforming loans to $697,500?

Me neither, and no word as to when they might be available.  Think lenders are just too busy to get around to it?  One of them could break out and capture a niche in the marketplace, and if Fannie/Freddie are buying, how risky could it be?

I mentioned towards the end of the 100+ comment post last week about getting together for a beer at Pizza Port in Carlsbad tonight, but I can’t make it.

But I’d like to regroup anyway.  I’m afraid that if we were to load up on sharkbite red ale and get crazy, it could digress into going door to door with shadash and throwing freeloaders out of their house!

Instead, I want to find a way to protest about what the government is doing.

I’m open to your ideas, but I’m thinking we should write a song of protest.  We’d meet up at Pizza Port in the next week or two, drink a few beers to make us sound better, and then sing it on camera.  Then put it on youtube, send it to government officials, and boom – change the world.

What do you think?

Have any verses you like to contribute?

Has the REO business been picking up?  The foreclosure agents we’ve been following were impacted by the foreclosure moratorium, where are they now?

Here is the first half of 2008, with today’s tally at the bottom:

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 – 482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 – 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 – 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 – 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 – 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

June 27 – 261 Actives/261 Pendings = 1.00

March 9 – 223 Actives/223 Pendings = 1.00

In spite of the foreclosure ban, REO business has picked up – the totals were about half as much four or five months ago.

These same agents have listed 229 properties this year, and had 330 go pending since January 1st.   They’ve closed 260 so far this year, and improvement of 17% over last year’s 223 closings in the same period.

The camera is always running, let’s review some of the last year’s lowlights:

So Mr. Smarty Pants got his lunch handled to him on the last video, right?

I try to avoid that by doing a quick check before going out on these.  The tax rolls have a computerized comp checker using size and distance from subject property as the primary criteria.  The was a model match to this house that sold in October for $562,000, and even though it was an REO, it was decked out pretty nice.

That was all I needed to see, but also consider that there are eight one-story houses currently for sale in 92024 that are UNDER $500,000!

Why did this go pending?  The reasons, in most likely order of being right:

1.   Neighbor within 1-2 blocks bought it for family member.

2.   Someone who has coveted the neighborhood for a long time.

3.   Naive buyer and/or agent who got suckered by the ‘won’t last’ mantra, and the short-sale 2,100sf active listing across the street for $695,000 (unsold).

I mumbled at the end of the video that we should outlaw these types of sayings – in this environment, the old, worn-out hype is just begging buyers to test you.  If you have a house that is in perfect condition, that’s one thing, but a house built in 1974 that’s in original condition is just the type that buyers will say, “We’ll see about that not lasting” and not make an offer just to show you.

Plus, if it’s such a bargain, maybe you should have listed it higher?

A fourth possibility is that the market is heating up – and that this year’s spring kick might actually happen this time.  Adam started this post on Piggington (link below), saying that he’s sees the market being more active today than it’s been in the last 2-3 years, and that bargain hunters might as well take the next few months off.

http://piggington.com/creating_a_sense_of_urgency_you_better_buy_now

I concur that sales are hot and heavy in the lower price ranges of every market.  But I think people should always keep an eye out for the right house, at the right price.  The model-match comp mentioned above?  It was listed for $656,900 for 30 days – then shows up sold for almost $100,000 less? 

Even if the banks start dumping properties and prices continue their descent, the competition for them will increase.  Being able to land the right house, at the right price, will likely be a challenge no matter what time of year.  Plus, as we saw in 4Q08, the inventory of good homes for sale was pretty thin.

Just keep an eye out – who knows what you’ll see?

P.S. The house on the video is also a probate sale, so it’ll go through the court’s overbid process.