The Case-Shiller index for January is out.

San Diego’s index was 148.25, the same as in August/September 2002. 

The peak was 250.34 in November, 2005.

As a result, you’ll hear that San Diego prices are down 41% – the difference between the index in November 2005 and January 2009.

But that is a broad stroke by a very wide brush, plus doesn’t January seem like a long time ago?

Are Carlsbad Detached Homes Back to 2002 Pricing?

There were seven houses sold this month that previously sold in 2002 and 2003.  All but one closed for double-digit gains compared to what they paid.

The one that sold for less was the guy on Pelican who refi-cashed-out about $600,000 before getting foreclosed, and the bank giving it away for $975,000.

So I wouldn’t say that Carlsbad is back to 2002 pricing. 

Will there be a big improvement in the Case-Shiller index between January and March? Doubtful, if anything it’ll probably get worse.

Where is Carlsbad compared to peak-pricing?

2003 – 4 sales, at 7% average gain

2004 – 2 sales, at 12% average loss

2005 – 5 sales, at 19% average loss

2006 – 6 sales, at 23% average loss

2007 – 2 sales, at 22% average loss

There were only three that lost more than 30%:

1. A junker on Pine in the barrio (-37%)

2. A house with 3,057sf but no view in Bay Collection (-32%)

3. A very suspicious sale on Valley where the former owner paid $1.2 million (-52%)

Generally I think you can say Carlsbad is 20% to 25% below peak pricing.

In March there were 15 of 40 houses that sold for a loss, but that means that most sold for MORE than they paid, which should be noted somewhere in the media coverage too.

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The N.Y. Times is on the case, and their quotes include the words ‘gruesome, and ‘no daylight’. 

They even quoted a part-time local blogger today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/economy/01econ.html?ref=business ^[1]