Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 6:41 AM
Now Pending
This 1,633 sf house in Encinitas, listed for $569,000, probably went pending before the video hit the street – she was right, won’t last!
Days on market = 4
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This 4,287sf Chula Vista REO with the barbie house out front was priced to sell, listed for $585,900, so it’s no surprise that they’re in escrow.
The 5,520sf house next door, listed for $799,900, had gone pending too, but it fell out last week.
Days on market = 12
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This 4,469sf REO on two acres in Valley Center finally found a buyer – we’re in escrow at $475,000.
Still waiting for the call from Curb Appeal Magazine.
Days on market = 56
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Once I finally uploaded this side photo of my Vista REO listing, it went pending for $160,000, all-cash, just over the list price of $159,900.
Days on market = 85
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This 3,703sf newer house in San Marcos was first listed on the range $749,000 to $759,000, but once they changed the price to $689,000 to $719,000, it went pending nine days later.
The sellers paid $502,000 at the auction in December, 2008.
Days on market = 42
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The upside-down 4,040sf REO on Buena Vista Circle in the village of Carlsbad, listed for $889,900, went pending yesterday.
Days on market = 11
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The 3,815sf REO with the view on Huntington in BR, listed for $809,900 went pending, but the other across the street is still active, now down to $780,947.
Days on market = 13
For those wanting a recap of our contest, click here:
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/02/br-contest/
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Nothing matters until they close, and we’ll keep an eye on ‘em!
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Here’s one that did close, the 3,538sf REO on Obelisco in La Costa that had listed for $799,900. It went pending after 8 days on market, and closed for $880,000!
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Posted on Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 6:41 AM in Sales and Price Check | 28 Comments » | 
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So, Jim, what do you think? Does this mean that there is something of a bottom or equilibrium in the market reforming. Aside from the Barbie house which was pretty badly damaged by the displaced owners and probably needs to be put aside in the analysis, it seems like you can look at these, collectively,as a sign that the market is finally getting out of panic mode. Thoughts? Or am I too optimistic?
Former RB Resident | March 12th, 2009 at 7:37 amObvious knife catchers. Right?
Mozart | March 12th, 2009 at 8:54 amFormer RB,
I doubt that we’ll ever be able to talk about “the market” again, as a collective whole. From now on, it will be a splintered, disjointed bag of goo.
We’ll have superior properties with sharp prices selling relatively easily, and other inferior properties continuing to get hammered.
All because I don’t think buyers are going to compromise much, if at all, but if they see something they love, they’ll jump on it just to get it over with – the frustration is a motivator.
Plus, there will be plenty to go around for everyone.
Jim the Realtor | March 12th, 2009 at 9:06 amI think that’s an accurate analysis, Jim. The lower prices have brought buyers out of the woodwork (like myself and a few of my co-workers), BUT we all know it’s a buyer’s market right now and won’t settle for anything less than perfection.
For myself, I did find the perfect home and paid what was fair market price for it, at that point (a few months ago).
One of my co-workers is trying to find a good REO, but by the time he sees a place he likes, it already has 5-10 offers and he’s lucky if they’ll even take his info.
Based on these observations, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the good units (either superior homes at reasonable prices, or homes of above-average value per $) will sell like hotcakes, while the other 90% will sit… and sit… and sit.
I think we need to revise the comp system!
Kwaping | March 12th, 2009 at 9:17 amWe still have a long way to go before we hit bottom. Like Mozart says these are people trying to catch a failing knife just like the stock market. EMC was over a $100 stock in 2000 people will always buy on the way down so was $80 a good buy to some or $60 to others, people keep buying thinking that they got a good deal EMC went all the way to $3. a share.
Now in regards to real estate I remember back in 1999 when the neighbor was trying to sell a beautiful lake view house. Upon speaking to the noted Southern California Realtor she mentioned she had sold that house three times but it fell out each time. When we get that type of environment on top quality properties that is when we know that we have reached a bottom which in my opinion is years away……..
M Santoro | March 12th, 2009 at 9:34 amJust goes to show ya, price makes a difference.
Except for the “won’t last” which was a clear case of good luck, I think the prices look pretty good.
I wish more sellers would pay attention. They need to read your blog.
KC | March 12th, 2009 at 10:13 amI was being sarcastic. I think we’re in overshoot territory in a number of zip codes and obviously superior products will sell first. Still, it’s hard to think of the time machine house in Encinitas as superior.
Mozart | March 12th, 2009 at 10:18 amI’m with you and KC, the Ency house was a lucky sale, and may have been bought by a neighbor. It would have taken a strong desire to be in that neighborhood to scoop it that fast, in that condition.
On a positive note, the freeway-close house in Cardiff is still active.
Jim the Realtor | March 12th, 2009 at 10:28 amIt’s all about perception. I recall being stunned that townhomes in my neighborhood were selling for as much as $320K in the early 00′s. Insanity! But now that there are listings in the $400K range after seeing a peak in the mid $500′s, that seems like a deal?
Jim you are on point as usual regarding differentiating the micro markets. I would add that I do not feel any zip code is safe from a very substantial evaporation of value. It will only be a matter of time, and on this I agree with M Santoro that we are years away from seeing a bottom.
RSS | March 12th, 2009 at 11:25 amSo Jim,
Will you tell us if it’s one of them European wall-builders who is buying the house??
)
Jay | March 12th, 2009 at 11:47 amOne thing’s for sure – if you keep calling bottom, eventually you’ll be right.
An asset switching hands is in no way an indication of a floor, or ceiling for that matter. IMO the storm has just begun. Trillions of dollars still need to unwind.
Houses in Chula Vista are still going for $600k+… Cmon.
Genius | March 12th, 2009 at 12:21 pmGenius:
Those are not houses – they are gargantuan stucco boxes with decent yards.
Todd | March 12th, 2009 at 12:36 pmKnife catchers, all of ‘em.
The Blur | March 12th, 2009 at 2:00 pmI’ve been all over looking at properties from Chula Vista to San Marcos in the newer developments. They are now averaging around $150 psf for newer homes. Rancho Bernardo / 4S Ranch is now at the $200 psf range. A year ago each area was about $50 more psf for the recently built homes. They keep going down, and we are not near a bottom. We will be closer to the bottom in 2010 and have a long gradual decline that sees lower and lower % yr-over-yr change until about 5 years out, once all the opt-arm / neg-am loans work their way through.
I’ve been watching condos in RB. 6 months ago I thought they were good deals, and they have been hacked another 20% on prices in just that time.
Have you seen the recent up-tick in inventory levels? More homes are hitting the market again, in time for the seasonal hot time of the year. I bet prices go lower as sellers want to move them now before they miss the seasonal train because by 2010, pricing will be down another 10-20%!! Is BMIT still tracking inventory? He closed his site to outsiders. Jim, would you be interested in publishing these numbers. Maybe he would send them to you.
Blue Streak | March 12th, 2009 at 2:49 pm“Have you seen the recent up-tick in inventory levels?”
Anywhere near Mission Bay (Zips 92109, 92110, 92117), available SFR inventory is way down. Some lower-priced homes (less than $500K) are on the market for only a few days.
GameAgent | March 12th, 2009 at 3:19 pmholy cow! i really think all of these are still way overpriced! How is this possible? Are there still just that many desparate/stupid buyers with too much money on their hands?
i miss BMIT…
WB | March 12th, 2009 at 3:51 pmI think you greatly underestimate the desireability of those 1 stoy Encinitas homes on 1/4 acre plus lots on the south end of Encinitas with No HOA or Mellow Ruze. That location will save you at least 15 minutes in heading South in the morning from La Costa.
ECR | March 12th, 2009 at 5:58 pmAlso I think part of it is just people sick of waiting. It’s been what, a couple years since the San Diego peak? Some people just want to get a place and get on with it.
Dwip | March 12th, 2009 at 6:19 pmI’m getting the feeling that people are kind of ‘panicked out’ — I mean, I’m ready for the stock market to hit 0 at this point and I’m not sure it would phase me if it did. Housing market in toilet, stock market in toilet, deficit is outrageous, inflation next to hit us. I used to lose sleep over it all; now I just try to work harder and avoid the news and just generally move on with my life. Maybe some of the buyers here are feeling the same? These homes all look not worthy to me, but to each his/her own.
Is anyone else feeling ‘panicked out’?
BAM | March 12th, 2009 at 6:51 pm“Housing market in toilet, stock market in toilet”
10 years from now you’ll look back and say “I was really dumb for not buying those deals back in ’09.”
GameAgent | March 12th, 2009 at 7:36 pmI did open houses this past weekend up in Costa Mesa. The first three places were all vacant being two foreclosures and a deceased where the kids were selling the house. All three needed major work and very much reminded me of the beaten down worn-out look of homes during the mid-90s.
The days of clean, bright, freshly redone new pergrantile are gone. It’ll take buyers a while to adjust. Right now, the fixed up places stick out like a sore thumb from a desirability standpoint, but by this winter, those will just be farther and farther between.
The ones done on HELOC money, IMHO, are going to age quickly and even those done a recently as the peak (2006), will be showing use having lost the new gloss and be looking a touch tacky and dated.
It’s back to basics. Price, price, price for the sale; clean, clean, clean to show.
No_Such_Reality | March 12th, 2009 at 7:47 pm“10 years from now you’ll look back and say ‘I was really dumb for not buying those deals back in ‘09.’”
Larry Yun? Is that you?!
The Blur | March 12th, 2009 at 7:49 pmOne of the reasons for buying in Encinitas off ECR is one gets to shav 30 – 40 minutes commute time per day getting to the 5 from Carlsbad if heading towards Sorrento Valley and further. I can get to Solana Beach in 15 minutes in the AM going the back way through RSF. Sure, there are less than desireable pockets in Encinitas, but location is key. Homes are still above $300 per sq ft in my specific hood albeit down 11% since the peak. We are taking hits however and I would expects more price drops next year as HELOCS and prime jumbo notes surge. Recent store closings in Encinitas: Shoe Pavilion (lasted what 4 mos), La Salsa, Maui Coffee, HR Block, Circuit City, Hollywood Video, Filipp’s Pizza Grotta (what 7 mos?) – who will be next.
3clicks from da Beach | March 12th, 2009 at 9:10 pmAnother one that might make the it won’t last
9852 Lone Quail
Crazyray | March 12th, 2009 at 10:44 pmSan Diego, CA 92127
Price: $290,000
BEDS: 3
BATHS: 2.5
SQ. FT.: 1,644
$/SQ. FT.: $176
LOT SIZE: -
PROPERTY TYPE: Residential, Attached
YEAR BUILT: 2003
STORIES: 2
COUNTY: San Diego
MLS#: 090015319
SOURCE: SANDICOR
STATUS: Active
ON REDFIN: 1 day
NEW LISTING (24 HOURS)
4S Ranch Home, Seller is very motivated. Short Sale. Has a huge front porch, next to Monterey Ridge Park, Upgraded wood flooring, upgraded carpet upstairs, Island in the Kitchen, fireplace, Quiet neighboorhood, 2 car garage, Close to Elem School and High School opening soon. Buyer and Agent to verify all information BCOE. Not available to show at this time.
I don’t have confidence in short sales. Is this bank approved? Why is property tax $7,364? I know nothing about 4S area.
3clicks from da Beach | March 12th, 2009 at 11:04 pmThe inventory up-ticks are in certain zips. Here are a few in very nice family areas to live.
Here is Rancho Bernardo, West, 92127:
Week Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 189 72 261
03/01/2009 180 71 252
02/22/2009 172 68 241
02/15/2009 174 66 241
02/08/2009 171 69 240
02/01/2009 170 63 233
01/25/2009 177 52 230
01/18/2009 175 53 229
01/11/2009 175 54 229
01/04/2009 168 53 222
01/01/2009 165 52 217
12/28/2008 167 53 220
Here is Rancho Bernardo, East, 92128
Week Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 133 125 258
03/01/2009 132 118 251
02/22/2009 137 117 255
02/15/2009 139 119 258
02/08/2009 140 120 260
02/01/2009 136 117 254
01/25/2009 137 117 255
01/18/2009 135 117 253
01/11/2009 134 113 248
01/04/2009 123 108 233
01/01/2009 116 106 223
12/28/2008 128 109 238
Here is Scripps Ranch, 92131:
Week Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 105 56 162
03/01/2009 105 53 159
02/22/2009 100 50 150
02/15/2009 101 55 156
02/08/2009 101 59 160
02/01/2009 94 61 155
01/25/2009 88 56 145
01/18/2009 88 50 138
01/11/2009 84 47 131
01/04/2009 80 46 126
01/01/2009 77 46 124
12/28/2008 79 46 125
Here is Encinitas, 92024
Week Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 205 59 271
03/01/2009 202 61 270
02/22/2009 194 64 266
02/15/2009 191 64 265
02/08/2009 191 63 265
02/01/2009 183 59 254
01/25/2009 178 60 253
01/18/2009 171 59 246
01/11/2009 171 63 249
01/04/2009 174 63 251
01/01/2009 171 60 246
12/28/2008 168 64 245
Here is Carmel Valley, 92130:
Week Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 206 84 291
03/01/2009 200 84 284
02/22/2009 194 85 280
02/15/2009 184 80 264
02/08/2009 179 75 254
02/01/2009 176 74 250
01/25/2009 165 69 234
01/18/2009 160 68 229
01/11/2009 158 63 222
01/04/2009 155 61 216
01/01/2009 150 58 208
12/28/2008 152 57 209
Rancho Penasquitos, 92129:
Week Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 80 45 126
03/01/2009 76 44 121
02/22/2009 74 41 115
02/15/2009 77 37 115
02/08/2009 75 36 111
02/01/2009 73 39 112
01/25/2009 76 41 118
01/18/2009 79 44 124
01/11/2009 80 41 121
01/04/2009 76 39 115
01/01/2009 73 38 112
12/28/2008 74 39 114
Rancho Santa Fe, East, 92067:
Week Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 279 7 286
03/01/2009 276 7 283
02/22/2009 266 7 273
02/15/2009 259 7 266
02/08/2009 260 7 267
02/01/2009 255 7 262
01/25/2009 252 7 259
01/18/2009 252 7 259
01/11/2009 244 6 250
01/04/2009 233 6 239
01/01/2009 230 6 236
12/28/2008 239 6 245
Rancho Santa Fe, West, 92091:
Blue Streak | March 12th, 2009 at 11:16 pmWeek Houses Condos Total
03/08/2009 29 11 40
03/01/2009 28 12 40
02/22/2009 29 12 41
02/15/2009 27 11 38
02/08/2009 27 13 40
02/01/2009 23 13 37
01/25/2009 22 15 38
01/18/2009 23 14 37
01/11/2009 21 14 35
01/04/2009 19 15 35
01/01/2009 19 16 35
12/28/2008 19 17 37
Now is the time to buy. Get in now. BUY BUY BUY. Don’t miss the boat. Please, please buy. I don’t want the competition when we reach the real bottom.
LOL | March 13th, 2009 at 4:00 amNowhere near bottom. All you really need to do is look at the credit suisse graph:
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/02/latest-plan-a-dud/
We’re not even to the second tick on the horizontal axis (left to right).
On the other hand, we might have hit peak doom.
NateTG | March 13th, 2009 at 6:37 am