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Here’s an Excel spreadsheet (below) on the 688 bank-owned properties in Cardiff, Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, Carmel Valley, San Elijo Hills, Poway, West RB (92127), Rancho Pensaquitos, and Scripps Ranch.

(Those that have individual names were end-users who bought at the trustee sale). 

Let me know if you see one that you’d like to buy!

bank_owned_properties1

The REOs started up again today.  We haven’t had any bank-owned properties assigned to us since November, and today they sent us five new listings. 

It looks like all five were foreclosed on this week, not ones that have been hanging around in the portfolio. 

All of them are in Oceanside, and according to Mr T., “This batch of homes is far superior in quality to most of the ones you have been receiving from Countrywide!!!”

The former owners are living in four of the five, so it’ll be a few months before they hit the open market. 

This REO was vacated this week, and is in line to start the beginning stages of processing the procedures that will initiate the proper policies and forms that will lead to thinking about someday putting this home on the market.

In other words, it’ll probably be 3-5 months before we have a winner, but if you’d like to guess the eventual sales price of this 4 br/2.5 ba, 2,220sf detached condo in SW Carlsbad, record your price in the comment section. The winner will receive four tickets to a Padres game!

P.S. I mention in the video what I think the list price should be, but note that my recommendations are regularly ignored. The actual list price has not been determined yet.

Rob Dawg mentioned yesterday that we should question the cost-per-sf metric, and it, like the median sales price, leaves plenty to be desired.

I think we all agree that reviewing same-house sales gives us the best look at pricing trends and related market conditions.

In January there were 37 houses on the MLS that closed in Carlsbad – here are the 12 that had previously sold since 2004:

Although it would appear that two-thirds of the long-time owners/sellers did fine, four of them had hit the housing ATM. One was an REO, and three were short sales.

Six REOs plus seven short sales equals 13 of 37, or 35% of all sales that were bank-involved.

The average change in value was -20%.

Harrison looks/smells suspicious, the previous sale was 101% financed, and it had sold previously for $565,000 in 2003. I saw it, and the house was barely standing on a bigger lot – either it was fraud, or the underwriter and appraiser were, well, how do I say it, ‘pushing the envelope’?.

This house in SE Carlsbad sold for $1,157,500 on June 30, 2005. Here’s a 6:18 video tour:

The Pending Home Sales for December showed improvement, and Larry Yun at NAR mentioned how the best numbers were in the most affordable areas.  He also said, “Significant uncertainty still clouds the housing market despite improved affordability conditions. For a sustainable housing market recovery and, hence, sustainable economic recovery, we need a significant housing stimulus and mortgage availability for qualified borrowers,” Yun added.

Apparently he and others have decided that their job is now to beg the government for handouts.  He might get his government-sponsored lower mortgage rates, but do we need them?

I don’t think we do – I can live with 5.5% to 6% rates. 

If Larry really wanted to have some direct impact on solving real problems, he’d be saying something about the jumbo financing – that’s where the trouble is brewing. 

At least that’s what I thought before running the January numbers – here’s a preview of January’s closed sales of detached and attached homes in San Diego County, split into three categories; under $300,000, $300,000 to $600,000, and over $600,000:

(click on graph for clearer view)

The lower-end has been on fire lately, with sales under $300,000 almost tripling compared to January 2008′s number.  Sales above $600,000 have continued their descent.

But an interesting uptick on the higher-end cost per square foot.  I’m not sure exactly what to make of this, other than what’s selling are the most superior of the superior homes.

People with money are holding out for the very best, and though we may see the $-per-sf number somehow suffer along, the higher-end sales will be crippled without any change in the jumbo financing. 

Larry, can you do something for us there?  Can you pitch for the government to open up Fannie and Freddie to all loan amounts?

We found more concerns about underground water in Carlsbad – this case is on Via Adelfa in La Costa Valley.  Apparently the trouble has been going on for years, and in 2005 this homeowner sued the builder, KB Home, and a couple of dozen sub-contractors for damages.

It looks like they must have worked it out, because construction is underway.

There are many cases of underground water throughout Carlsbad. 

1. North Carlsbad – Alt Carlsbad is where our town got it’s start.  The year was 1882 when John Frazier, former sea captain, was digging a well for his farm which covered much of today’s downtown area of Carlsbad, California.  Frazier struck at 415 feet an aquifer of mineral water. Encouraged by his success, he sank another well at 510 feet.   Analysis showed the mineral water was very similar to the water from the world-famous Karlsbad, Bohemia, health resort, so they named the water Carlsbad Mineral Water.

2.  In Benecia, a Shea-built tract in Rancho Carrillo there were two houses at 2933 and 2937 Rancho Rio Chico that had severe soil problems.  It was so bad that the doors and windows had trouble closing just 1-2 years after construction, and Shea ended up buying them back from the original buyers and re-sold them.  One is currently in default, and if the bank gets it and re-sells, they aren’t obligated to disclose.

3.  Taylor Woodrow built the Mar Fiore tract in Aviara, and they re-purchased at least five homes on Corvidae that had soil problems.  They were also re-sold with disclosures – for more money than the original buyers paid.

4.  We’ve already touched on the Marbella condo complex on La Costa Ave that cost the city millions of dollars after the big rain in 2005 caused eight homes to start sliding off the hill.  Further east at the base of RSF Rd., the entire hillside gave way on Agua Dulce, filling the homeowner’s pool and caused many months of re-construction.

A representative from the City of Carlsbad said, “We all living on one big spring”.

If you are considering buying a home anywhere in the coastal region, be on the lookout for excessive ground water, in particular at locations where the lot has been cut into the hill, or at the bottom of a steep slope!

I turned 50 years old yesterday!

My wife threw a party at our house on Saturday, and we had a great group of family, old friends, and clients who have become friends. 

Robert Cote and his lovely wife came from Ventura County, and it was a real treat to finally connect the people with the online persona.  This was the first time we’ve spoke, and I found them both to be extremely humble and gracious – and most impressively, just old-fashioned regular folks.  Thanks Robert for making the trip – it was a pleasure to finally meet you, and the coffee tastes great!

A couple of people mentioned my little inspiration corner:

A photo of Nolan Ryan on the night when he got hit in the mouth by a Bo Jackson line drive, and kept pitching, and the quote from Rickey Henderson when asked why he kept playing as a 46-year old for the San Diego Surf Dawgs,  ”I ain’t hurt!” 

Both inspire me to keep going – and at 50 there’s no reason to think about retiring, in spite of receiving my AARP membership card!

Chrisg mentioned our house, and I’d like to add that it’s just a normal 2,348 square footer built in 1976, which provides some limitations – I wish I could have invited more people! 

But in an effort to segue back into business, it reminds me of the conversation I had Friday with the asset manager about our Valley Center listing. 

There was concern with using comps that were only 3,500-3,700sf - heck, the subject property has 4,469sf, shouldn’t that be worth more? 

Not today it isn’t, and not in VC.  Buyers are being very conservative, and while they’ll take an extra 700sf, they’re not going to pay for it today unless they really need it.  How many people who want to live in Valley Center really need 4,469sf, that couldn’t get by with 3,700sf for 10% to 20% less? 

Apparently none, because we haven’t sold it yet – current list price is $538,900, which sounds reasonable for $121/sf on two acres. 

But remember the other problem, the lack of curb appeal?  I’m not sure they’re taking that into consideration either.

This house sold for $927,500 in November, 2005, and is a good example of how the market has changed.  With tougher jumbo financing and more critical buying patterns, the price will have to be really right here!

Sellers, if you have 4,000sf or more and are in a less-than-smoking-hot market, take a look at the smaller comps.  Buyers are only buying what they need!