Thursday, February 12th, 2009 at 6:40 AM
BR Contest
The reason I like doing contests is because they allow you to try out your theories – you can guess what will happen in the market, and we’ll follow along to see how it turns out.
I’m not making fun of BR. Unfortunately it’s an area that has been hard hit by the RE downturn, and others deserve to know about it, and learn something from it. In fact, everything you see on this blog is anecdotal evidence (def. ‘based on personal observation, case study reports, or random investigations rather than systematic scientific evaluation’). Use what you see here to help educate yourself about what’s going on around you.
The biggest difference between the two REOs is that the first one has a finished backyard, and the second’s backyard is raw dirt but has a decent westerly view instead – and is listed $4,800 higher ($805,100 vs. $809,900).
Somebody will find that these REOs are worthy of their investment – but at what price?
Guess the combined total of the sales prices of these two REOs, and for a tie-breaker include your guess for combined days on market (MT on our MLS). The winner will receive four tickets to a Padres game!
(Jake Peavy was on the radio yesterday for the first time since the trade rumors. He expressed his affection for San Diego, and his intent to stay here as long as the team will have him!)
Posted on Thursday, February 12th, 2009 at 6:40 AM in Contests | 62 Comments » | 
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The second lot is way better from what I can tell. It will sell faster and for more. They gotta compete with LC Greens next door. As far as I know there’s no stigma there. Or is there?
Combined Price: $1,521,375.
The Blur | February 12th, 2009 at 6:54 amCombined DOM: 69
$860k+$874k=$1.734k
34 days+68days=102days
I must point out that these numbers only apply to these two sales for the first time they sell in 2009.
Rob Dawg | February 12th, 2009 at 7:21 amI think someone might jump at $795k. if the agents were smart they would have done just that and created a bidding war.
combined price: $1.58 mil
combined DOM: 40 days
actual value each? $700k.
ocrenter | February 12th, 2009 at 7:24 am$1.43 mil
garbler | February 12th, 2009 at 7:30 amcombined DOM = 90 days
$1.56 mil
At least one falls out of escrow before it closes.
DOM = 110 days
Kingside | February 12th, 2009 at 7:41 amcombined sp: $1.63M
GameAgent | February 12th, 2009 at 7:42 amcombined dom: 63 days
Ok, I don’t know the background on BR. What’s all the hubbub about “what’s her name” and the pie in the sky thinking about the neighborhood. How is this neighborhood any different than any number of McMansion new construction areas that have imploded?
Former RB Resident | February 12th, 2009 at 8:05 amJim,
Great job with this video!
$1,289,000
214 days
Turnack | February 12th, 2009 at 8:23 am>>>>> $1,530,000 <<<<<<<
OCVulture | February 12th, 2009 at 8:42 am180days
Thanks Jim!
Combined sales price: $1,250,000.
greenlander | February 12th, 2009 at 8:51 amCombined DOM: 250
Former RB Resident: google “jenae bressi ranch”
Kwaping | February 12th, 2009 at 9:04 am$1.39 mil
mtb | February 12th, 2009 at 9:39 am115 DOM
Combined sales price: $1,555,000.
UCGal | February 12th, 2009 at 9:43 amCombined DOM: 167
I’m still dizzy from the video’s transition into the 2nd house.
Just a Broker | February 12th, 2009 at 9:44 am$1,603,900/ 72DOM and for a kicker house 1 falls out once.
1.60mil and 175DOM
oh brother | February 12th, 2009 at 9:46 amI keep thinking that is your shoes skidding on the ugly ebonized wood floors when it is the smoke detector squeeking!
1.39 and 113 dom.
BAM | February 12th, 2009 at 9:49 am1.58M
30 days combined on the market
I want Peavy pitching when I get my tix Jim!
doughboy | February 12th, 2009 at 9:51 am799K + 795K = 1.594 mill
DOM – 113 days
Kyle | February 12th, 2009 at 9:57 am$1.41M
134 DOM
Wes | February 12th, 2009 at 10:02 am$763,000 each combine for $1,526,000.
M Santoro | February 12th, 2009 at 10:03 amDOM 91 days
@kwaping,
Thanks. Wow. Just wow.
Former RB Resident | February 12th, 2009 at 10:15 amAnyone work at CBS? Price is Right: REO Edition. What do you think?
Anyways, here’s my bid:
no bubble here | February 12th, 2009 at 10:27 am$1
The HOA/M-R/taxes are more than my gross before taxes costs. IOW if you gave me one of these my costs would go up.
I’m thinking there’s a quiet revolution brewing over HOAs first and eventually M-R.
Rob Dawg | February 12th, 2009 at 10:36 amI predict 100+ DOM then these turkeys will get rolled into some TARP/TALF/BARF fund then relisted 2 DOM and eventually sell for 1.5 Ameros.
JE | February 12th, 2009 at 10:38 amBressi Ranch:
“An exclusive master-planned community”
Who do they exclude? They might want to stop excluding people if they want to get rid of all that foreclosure inventory.
Ted | February 12th, 2009 at 10:58 am$1,450,280
DOM = 212
Byomkesh | February 12th, 2009 at 11:07 amSeems everyone here except me believes all the knife catchers have been flushed out.
Rob Dawg | February 12th, 2009 at 11:13 amDawg, I think they are all following your rather-optimistic guess……$100K over list?
Jim the Realtor | February 12th, 2009 at 11:23 amLots of noise out there these days – George C. reports this today in his column:
The headline on the RealtyTrac press release this morning said, “Foreclosure activity decreased 10 percent in January.” So, how did Marketwatch.com headline the story on its Web site? “Foreclosures up 18 percent in January,” that’s how. The RealtyTrac headline referenced the month-to-month change while the Marketwatch.com headline referred to the difference between this January and the same month a year ago. By the way, the stock market is down more than 40 percent in that same period, but that’s just a correction, right?
By the way, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, has some good news. “No withstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight for the nation,” said Zandi, who has been quite bearish about housing for some time. He said that proposals in the stimulus package will help, adding, “prices will begin to recover by the end of this year.” I can wait that long.
Jim the Realtor | February 12th, 2009 at 11:37 amNothing new with $1,398,000 but longer
EastCoaster | February 12th, 2009 at 11:37 amDOM = 225
$835 + $865 = 1.7million
jbirdfunk | February 12th, 2009 at 11:43 am20 DOM + 25 DOM = 45
Random question to Jim or whomever. Jim says these properties might be a “worthy investment”, but isn’t this really the kind of price point for owner occupation, not investment rentals? I mean, who rents for $10K? (Or $5K for that matter.) Isn’t this pie in the sky thinking of using this neighborhoods as an investment portfolio part of the problem?
Former RB Resident | February 12th, 2009 at 11:51 amDawg, I think they are all following your rather-optimistic guess……$100K over list – Jim the Realtor
Yep, 6% over list. And my working theory is that there are more than 3 knife catchers out there thinking they are buying at the bottom and buying quality. The fact that neither is true will dissuade those 3+ delayed gratification buyers.
Rob Dawg | February 12th, 2009 at 11:51 amFormer RB,
I used the i-word (investment) because buying a house is an investment of money (down payment, CC, and monthly payments) emotion, future expectation, and need for shelter.
I don’t expect anyone to buy these to rent them, I’m referring to owner-occupants investing the above in whatever house they buy. Two buyers will decide to plant their roots here in these REOs, but at what price will it be comfortable enough? The point of today’s contest.
I appreciate you bringing it up, because I know I mentioned the i-word in the video too. In my mind, owner-occupants are investing more than just money, and they should be very careful in their decision-making.
Jim the Realtor | February 12th, 2009 at 12:20 pmThanks for the clarification, Jim. When I hear “investment” and house, I think speculator, which is a big part of the cause of the problems here. When I think of a home, sure you want one that’s going to not collapse or be next to the freeway, but really its primarily a place to live, not a piece of your retirement portfolio. If it goes up, that’s a nice side benefit, but if that’s what you really want, rent and invest elsewhere.
Former RB Resident | February 12th, 2009 at 12:39 pmTough one. I hate both these houses, and I’m never any good at guessing what someone else will pay for something I hate.
Since the web shows there’s a slightly smaller $705k “recently sold” around the corner, I’ll guess $1,450,000 for both.
GeneK | February 12th, 2009 at 12:40 pm$1,615,042 combined
with a total of 67 DOM
Jim,
Thanks for the contest – These are always fun to follow.
I used to live there in Mulberry – The low income housing condos. I would walk my children around and could never quite figure out what all those people did for a living and how they could afford those houses? It is starting to turn out that in reality they couldn’t. It is a beautiful community and there are aspects I do miss about not living there anymore, but for the future of my family I decided to sell, rent and wait to buy a house which looks like it might finally happen. Short sale is approved – I’m in escrow – fingers crossed until the end of the month.
Thanks for the education over the last year and change while going through this quest for home ownership.
Neil Diamond | February 12th, 2009 at 12:53 pm$1,447,000
stevea2z | February 12th, 2009 at 12:58 pm84 DOM
Jim, With access to data you have, you would be able to tell with a little analysis how many BR residences are coming up for reset on their ARMs? Or are upside down on their mortgages?
SDguy | February 12th, 2009 at 1:06 pm$1,565,000 63 DOM–I think they will both sell quickly as they are “sub-marining” the regular market. The next two Bressi Ranch buyers in that price range, or higher, will certainly give them a shot–good price/sf, even wwhen you are consideing that it’s Bressi Ranch–You would be hard-pressed to build either house, even in this economy, for $200/sf. I’ll bet the structures are insured for around $800K.
Local Boy | February 12th, 2009 at 1:50 pm$1,672,500
DOM – 46
HappyRenter | February 12th, 2009 at 2:43 pm$1.45m
85 days
LC Jim | February 12th, 2009 at 2:55 pm$860k + $874k = $1.734k
34 days + 67 days = 101days
rofl
Genius | February 12th, 2009 at 3:45 pmI’m curious what the mello-roos taxes are there. I bet they add another 8K a year, am I wrong?
1.49MM and 150 DOM
Westparker | February 12th, 2009 at 4:14 pm$1.511K
88 DOM
Al in IC | February 12th, 2009 at 4:26 pm$1,477,000
105 DOM
REB | February 12th, 2009 at 5:35 pmCombined sale price: $1.5285M.
Combined DOM: 82 days.
Blissful Ignoramus | February 12th, 2009 at 6:09 pm1,477,777 combined with DOM 47.
James Dean | February 12th, 2009 at 6:45 pm$1.3M / 180 DOM
GG | February 12th, 2009 at 7:01 pm$1.61M / 321 DOM
I’m the worst lowballer there is, believe me, but these are nice houses and people will get stoopid. And nobody is covering the high end. Might as well be me. Go Pads!
RB Renter | February 12th, 2009 at 7:43 pm1.65 M
Sue | February 12th, 2009 at 8:59 pm120 DOM
$1.35M, 230 DOM.
Stephen Waits | February 12th, 2009 at 9:22 pm1.632
CVman | February 12th, 2009 at 9:49 pm234 DOM
$999,999.99
Kook1315 | February 12th, 2009 at 10:20 pm420 DOM
$793K for the first @ 73 DOM
$815K for the one with the view @ 82 DOM, after falling out once.
Total of $1,608,000.
CA renter | February 13th, 2009 at 12:29 amThe first one will go fast and get bid up: 20 days, $825.
shoppingaround | February 13th, 2009 at 1:38 amThe other one will take longer: 110 days, finally $699. (Summer slump will be evident by then)
Total $1.524 and 130 market days.
The other one will take longer: 110 days, finally $699.
If one of these goes with a “6 handle” this summer it will cause cascade failure of half the houses there.
Rob Dawg | February 13th, 2009 at 8:44 amCombine: $1.65 M, DOM: 24
San-San | February 13th, 2009 at 2:18 pm1.570.000,00
48 DOM
Aztec | February 13th, 2009 at 6:11 pm$1,370,000
NateTG | February 14th, 2009 at 1:05 pm80 days
All I have to say is thank goodness the people in the second house finally moved out. We walk by there all the time and they had their side gates down, weeds everywhere and kids stuff strewn about all the time (no respect for their neighbors!). Anyone but them is better. I’m familiar with that model, so not sure if anyone else caught on the video they took the kitchen stove, but left the refrigerator! As far as monthly fees, don’t forget to take into account our HOA charges a hefty fee each month your landscaping isn’t done!!
Primose | February 15th, 2009 at 10:53 pm1.4 mil
bobfather99 | March 12th, 2009 at 6:49 am96 days….